NBA Play-In 2024 Bracket Math

As always, winning 2 games in a row is really hard - just like it was last year, when both the 7 and 8 seeds ultimately made the playoffs. No 7 seed has ever ultimately missed the playoffs since the play-in began in 2021.

This year is no different - while the 7 and 8 in the East are clearly superior teams, the second best play-in team in the West is the 10 seed Golden State Warriors.

But they have to win twice in a row, on the road - and thus have the worst odds of making the playoffs out of the West.

This also speaks to how perilous a strategy it would be for the Lakers to intentionally lose the first play-in game to avoid Denver in the first round (something that has been suggested).

Even setting aside that I have the Nuggets rated lower than the Thunder, the Lakers would only have about a 55% chance to beat either the Kings or Warriors in a single game. That leaves 45% where they completely miss the playoffs - so the difference in beating OKC over Denver would have to be massive to maximize "likelihood to win the title".

Final Four per the MDS Model (2024)

While Houston went bust, one of the other two top contenders are overwhelmingly our likely champion (85% combined). But due to the much easier path (on paper) for Purdue, they substantially outpace Connecticut to win it all - even though Connecticut looks pretty unbeatable and has led by 30+ in every game.

Seed	Team	Championship	Champion
	Final Four
1	Connecticut	67.60%	38.86%
4	Alabama	32.40%	13.12%
1	Purdue	87.11%	46.07%
11	NC State	12.89%	1.95%

I did pick the champion last year correctly at this stage (Connecticut). In the likely outcome that it's Connecticut/Purdue in the final (60%), Connecticut would be about a 1 point favorite over Purdue.

Seed	Matchups	Title Game
1	Connecticut	52.89%
1	Purdue	47.11%
1	Connecticut	88.57%
11	NC State	11.43%
4	Alabama	35.04%
1	Purdue	64.96%
4	Alabama	77.25%
11	NC State	22.75%

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2024)

Going in to last year's Sweet Sixteen, we had a pretty clear top two in Alabama and Houston. They both lose immediately as large favorites, leading to a completely unexpected Final Four.

Houston is back as a co-favorite, with only a few points of championship probability added at the top - Houston and Connecticut to 17%, with Purdue at 13%. That still leaves 53% that it is anyone else.

• Most likely Final Four (3.5% chance): Connecticut, Arizona, Houston, Purdue
• Chances of Caleb Love vs North Carolina for a trip to Phoenix: 39%
• Chances of Dook vs State for a trip to Phoenix: 8%

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Connecticut	73.12%	45.80%	28.96%	16.88%
5	San Diego St.	26.88%	10.34%	4.07%	1.41%
3	Illinois	45.89%	19.16%	9.31%	4.06%
2	Iowa St.	54.11%	24.71%	13.01%	6.19%
1	North Carolina	56.35%	29.72%	13.78%	6.44%
4	Alabama	43.65%	20.31%	8.17%	3.32%
6	Clemson	30.23%	10.84%	3.28%	1.01%
2	Arizona	69.77%	39.13%	19.42%	9.72%
1	Houston	64.57%	47.40%	28.51%	16.93%
4	Duke	35.43%	21.43%	9.78%	4.38%
11	NC State	23.61%	3.43%	0.60%	0.10%
2	Marquette	76.39%	27.74%	11.43%	4.62%
1	Purdue	68.51%	41.74%	23.71%	13.40%
5	Gonzaga	31.49%	13.21%	5.08%	1.92%
3	Creighton	43.92%	18.34%	7.87%	3.33%
2	Tennessee	56.08%	26.72%	13.02%	6.28%

NCAA Tournament 2024 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

A sadder update to start this year's bracket math: 2 of the 4 models I've used the past few years are no longer in service - FiveThirtyEight and Jeff Sagarin's. Nate Silver is still publishing his model to his Substack, but it's behind a paywall, and Jeff Sagarin is no longer at the USA Today, nor is his personal web site up to date. Neither are on The Prediction Tracker either.

I'll be bringing in Seven Overtimes this year, which is a site I've followed for a long time and a resource I've used in the past. I considered utilizing ESPN's BPI as well, but I am not a fan of their metric, and their track record across multiple sports for BPI has not been stellar.

So that leaves me with 3 models this year:

• KenPom (the OG and the GOAT)
• Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
• Seven Overtimes (created and maintained by Mark Bashuk)

I then use a weighted average of these 3 ratings, which smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I use to project the tournament.

Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	East
1	Connecticut	100.00%	98.45%	77.26%	49.86%	33.30%	22.03%	13.33%
16	Stetson	100.00%	1.55%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	FAU	100.00%	57.87%	14.46%	5.52%	2.20%	0.86%	0.29%
9	Northwestern	100.00%	42.13%	8.14%	2.55%	0.83%	0.27%	0.07%
5	San Diego St.	100.00%	78.31%	30.28%	10.19%	4.42%	1.88%	0.70%
12	UAB	100.00%	21.69%	3.39%	0.42%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
4	Auburn	100.00%	84.74%	61.03%	30.56%	18.53%	11.11%	6.01%
13	Yale	100.00%	15.26%	5.30%	0.89%	0.21%	0.05%	0.01%
6	BYU	100.00%	68.12%	31.20%	13.88%	4.73%	2.02%	0.75%
11	Duquesne	100.00%	31.88%	9.35%	2.61%	0.51%	0.13%	0.03%
3	Illinois	100.00%	87.64%	56.66%	30.28%	12.93%	6.70%	3.09%
14	Morehead St.	100.00%	12.36%	2.79%	0.43%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
7	Washington St.	100.00%	43.67%	11.71%	3.89%	0.85%	0.25%	0.06%
10	Drake	100.00%	56.33%	17.99%	7.00%	1.87%	0.64%	0.19%
2	Iowa St.	100.00%	94.33%	69.33%	41.80%	19.49%	10.88%	5.44%
15	South Dakota St.	100.00%	5.67%	0.97%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	West
1	North Carolina	100.00%	98.13%	62.97%	39.81%	22.08%	10.59%	5.21%
16*	Howard	100.00%	1.87%	0.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Mississippi St.	100.00%	46.11%	16.14%	7.64%	3.01%	1.08%	0.37%
9	Michigan St.	100.00%	53.89%	20.81%	10.64%	4.59%	1.65%	0.61%
5	St. Mary's	100.00%	63.98%	30.80%	12.57%	5.18%	1.77%	0.62%
12	Grand Canyon	100.00%	36.02%	12.61%	3.53%	1.00%	0.22%	0.05%
4	Alabama	100.00%	79.07%	49.86%	24.42%	12.03%	5.03%	2.17%
13	Charleston	100.00%	20.93%	6.73%	1.39%	0.29%	0.05%	0.01%
6	Clemson	100.00%	46.78%	21.34%	7.82%	3.17%	1.01%	0.33%
11	New Mexico	100.00%	53.22%	25.88%	10.26%	4.47%	1.55%	0.56%
3	Baylor	100.00%	87.46%	50.63%	23.17%	11.56%	4.70%	1.97%
14	Colgate	100.00%	12.54%	2.15%	0.24%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Dayton	100.00%	56.98%	19.37%	9.18%	3.93%	1.34%	0.47%
10	Nevada	100.00%	43.02%	12.06%	4.89%	1.77%	0.50%	0.14%
2	Arizona	100.00%	97.34%	68.35%	44.42%	26.89%	13.77%	7.22%
15	Long Beach St.	100.00%	2.66%	0.22%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	South
1	Houston	100.00%	96.83%	77.39%	54.22%	40.19%	25.28%	15.44%
16	Longwood	100.00%	3.17%	0.49%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Nebraska	100.00%	56.39%	13.57%	5.60%	2.55%	0.86%	0.28%
9	Texas A&M	100.00%	43.61%	8.55%	3.02%	1.19%	0.34%	0.09%
5	Wisconsin	100.00%	70.56%	33.81%	12.05%	6.41%	2.63%	1.03%
12	James Madison	100.00%	29.44%	8.50%	1.63%	0.53%	0.12%	0.03%
4	Duke	100.00%	83.72%	53.25%	22.82%	13.91%	6.78%	3.17%
13	Vermont	100.00%	16.28%	4.43%	0.61%	0.15%	0.02%	0.00%
6	Texas Tech	100.00%	67.25%	34.24%	15.25%	4.78%	1.64%	0.53%
11	NC State	100.00%	32.75%	11.32%	3.19%	0.58%	0.12%	0.02%
3	Kentucky	100.00%	82.49%	49.91%	24.70%	8.82%	3.44%	1.27%
14	Oakland	100.00%	17.51%	4.53%	0.80%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
7	Florida	100.00%	52.11%	24.50%	13.03%	4.36%	1.60%	0.55%
10*	Colorado	100.00%	47.89%	21.57%	11.03%	3.49%	1.21%	0.40%
2	Marquette	100.00%	86.85%	51.46%	31.47%	12.90%	5.72%	2.42%
15	Western Kentucky	100.00%	13.15%	2.47%	0.52%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
	Midwest
1	Purdue	100.00%	98.15%	79.51%	58.08%	38.11%	22.95%	13.37%
16*	Montana St.	100.00%	1.85%	0.21%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Utah St.	100.00%	42.05%	7.23%	2.60%	0.74%	0.18%	0.04%
9	TCU	100.00%	57.95%	13.04%	5.66%	2.01%	0.62%	0.18%
5	Gonzaga	100.00%	71.31%	42.08%	16.17%	7.65%	3.22%	1.28%
12	McNeese St.	100.00%	28.69%	10.78%	2.23%	0.60%	0.14%	0.03%
4	Kansas	100.00%	70.82%	37.63%	13.43%	5.96%	2.34%	0.86%
13	Samford	100.00%	29.18%	9.51%	1.81%	0.45%	0.10%	0.02%
6	South Carolina	100.00%	51.29%	19.32%	6.22%	1.81%	0.53%	0.14%
11	Oregon	100.00%	48.71%	17.79%	5.53%	1.55%	0.44%	0.11%
3	Creighton	100.00%	83.66%	57.75%	29.01%	13.40%	6.23%	2.75%
14	Akron	100.00%	16.34%	5.14%	0.88%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
7	Texas	100.00%	47.71%	16.13%	7.49%	2.58%	0.89%	0.29%
10*	Colorado St.	100.00%	52.29%	18.74%	9.11%	3.32%	1.21%	0.42%
2	Tennessee	100.00%	96.32%	64.80%	41.73%	21.67%	11.34%	5.68%
15	St. Peter's	100.00%	3.68%	0.33%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	64.00	32.00	16.00	8.00	4.00	2.00	1.00
Seed	Team	1st Round
16*	Wagner	45.58%
16*	Howard	54.42%
16*	Montana St.	60.47%
16*	Grambling St.	39.53%
10*	Virginia	30.62%
10*	Colorado St.	69.38%
10*	Boise St.	46.08%
10*	Colorado	53.92%

Some notes:

• Sweet 16 and on are all chalk, except for Gonzaga over Kansas, and Arizona to the Final Four

• The markets/rankings all year have had a very clear top 3: Houston, Purdue, and Connecticut. And those are the only teams with > 10% to win it all
• Even so, there is a 58% chance someone else will cut down the net

• Connecticut was done no favors by getting #1 overall. Four top 10 teams are in their region

• #2 Connecticut (1 seed), #4 Auburn (4 seed), #6 Iowa St (2 seed), #10 Illinois (3 seed)

• St. John's and Rick Pitino got hosed. They would have been the 17th highest ranked team in the bracket, and are top 25 on KenPom. Compare this to the first four out:
• Indiana St: #34
• Pittsburgh: #34
• Oklahoma: #37
• Seton Hall: #46
• Also, for good measure, Virginia, who made the First Four: #51

Full rankings:

Rank	Seed	Team	Rating
1	1	Houston	92.63
2	1	Connecticut	92.59
3	1	Purdue	91.58
4	4	Auburn	90.24
5	2	Arizona	89.62
6	2	Iowa St.	88.75
7	2	Tennessee	88.64
8	1	North Carolina	88.45
9	4	Duke	87.42
10	3	Illinois	87.31
11	3	Creighton	86.51
12	4	Alabama	86.22
13	2	Marquette	85.83
14	3	Baylor	85.78
15	5	Gonzaga	84.86
16	5	Wisconsin	84.61
17	6	BYU	84.02
18	9	Michigan St.	84.01
19	5	San Diego St.	83.99
20	3	Kentucky	83.80
21	4	Kansas	83.78
22	11	New Mexico	83.53
23	5	St. Mary's	83.29
24	7	Dayton	83.25
25	7	Florida	82.91
26	10	Colorado St.	82.78
27	8	FAU	82.71
28	8	Mississippi St.	82.65
29	6	Clemson	82.40
30	10	Colorado	82.18
31	6	Texas Tech	82.03
32	7	Texas	81.97
33	8	Nebraska	81.87
34	10	Drake	80.94
35	10	Boise St.	80.80
36	10	Nevada	80.79
37	9	TCU	80.44
38	9	Northwestern	79.94
39	6	South Carolina	79.80
40	9	Texas A&M	79.63
41	11	Oregon	79.35
42	7	Washington St.	78.71
43	12	Grand Canyon	78.30
44	8	Utah St.	77.65
45	11	Duquesne	77.45
46	12	James Madison	77.07
47	12	McNeese St.	77.01
48	13	Samford	76.13
49	13	Yale	75.94
50	11	NC State	75.80
51	10	Virginia	75.71
52	13	Charleston	74.94
53	13	Vermont	73.70
54	12	UAB	73.07
55	14	Akron	72.83
56	14	Morehead St.	71.17
57	14	Oakland	70.77
58	15	Western Kentucky	70.21
59	14	Colgate	69.76
60	16	Longwood	66.73
61	15	South Dakota St.	66.67
62	15	St. Peter's	63.69
63	15	Long Beach St.	62.65
64	16	Stetson	62.51
65	16	Montana St.	62.49
66	16	Howard	59.41
67	16	Grambling St.	58.79
68	16	Wagner	57.87