Going in to the playoffs, I only had 4 teams with > 5% chance of winning the title - Boston led the way with almost a 50/50 chance to raise another banner, whereas Dallas was barely on the radar, with the 12th best odds at 0.38%. Last year, Denver was barely above this 5% threshold, and ultimately steamrolled a Miami team that I gave a 0.1% chance of winning the championship at the start of last year's playoffs. Denver then had about a 60% edge last Finals on the back of an incredible playoff run by Nikola Jokic.
This season it's Luka Doncic's turn in the postseason, so I've based this season's Finals simulations off of playoff statistics only. This choice could seem to penalize Boston, as they have had much less impressive performances throughout these playoffs, compared to Dallas. Even so, they've only lost 2 games the entire postseason.
In Boston's favor, I am including Kristaps Porzingis at full-strength, and assuming his regular season workload, as he is not listed on the injury report and is expected to play in all games.
A lot has been made about how Dallas would be the 3rd biggest Finals upset in the modern era how Dallas would be the 3rd biggest Finals upset in the modern era - their odds are pegged at +185, or ~35%.
And yet I actually have those market odds as overrating their chances:
Ultimately I project Boston in 5. I have them as 7 point favorites (63% win probability) at home, and 3.5 point favorites (58% win probability) on the road. This adds up to a very large series probability.
A big question in this series is whether the top tier talent of Dallas can overwhelm Boston's depth. Dallas might have the 1st and 2nd best player, but Boston is far deeper at 3, 4, 5, 6, etc.
Luka may have the best projected stat line, but Tatum and Brown are consistently really good, and that, plus Boston's depth, results in Boston as a very strong favorite.
