Monday, October 27, 2014

MLS Cup Predictions

The MLS Cup bracket is set, and so are my picks!



Not many surprises here, except that my Pyth component has LA as far and away the best team in the league: with a predicted forward-looking win percentage of .740 (compared with their actual win percentage of 0.647). Combine that with LA's reputation of excelling in the playoffs, and expect Landon Donovan to go out on top. 

Also, by far the best matchup is LA vs RSL (#1 vs #2 in my model).

Monday, October 20, 2014

World Series Preview with Pitching Matchups

I have to default to one of my (new) favorite quotes, "You can't predict sports!" Because according to my calculations, this World Series matchup had a 0.11% chance of occurring at the start of the playoffs: each team was the least likely to win their respective pennant. But, here we are.

First, I start with the likely pitching matchups for each game, which allows me to determine which team has the advantage based on starting pitching alone (a negative number indicates KC is favored):


DifGameFav Pitch
0.15G1SF
-0.35G2KC
0.09G3SF
0.09G4SF
0.15G5SF
-0.35G6KC
0.09G7SF

Now I can factor in home-field advantage:

Home DifGameFav Pitch
-0.15G1KC
-0.65G2KC
0.39G3SF
0.39G4SF
0.45G5SF
-0.65G6KC
-0.21G7KC
Not surprisingly, each team is favored in their respective home parks. Now I can do the full predictions involving the predicted winner based on their overall performance throughout the season:

Final LineGameFavoriteWin %
-0.34G1KC54.53%
-0.85G2KC61.13%
0.20G3SF52.64%
0.19G4SF52.55%
0.26G5SF53.43%
-0.85G6KC61.13%
-0.40G7KC55.32%
Once again, it's clear home-field matters a LOT. The final totals conclude Kansas City wins it all 57.36% of the time, and San Francisco wins the title the other 42.64%.

Here's the breakdown of all possible outcomes:

KC in 4SF in 4In 4
7.49%4.89%12.38%
KC in 5SF in 5In 5
12.87%11.95%24.82%
KC in 6SF in 6In 6
19.74%11.86%31.60%
KC in 7SF in 7In 7
17.26%13.94%31.20%
The pick: Kansas City in 6