Probabilis

Statistics, probability, and Carolina sports

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Semifinals

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All four favorites advanced, leading to a heavyweight semifinals, and extremely, extremely level odds. The champion is once again guarantee...
Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Quarterfinals

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We are on to the quarterfinals, and the odds continue to coalesce around the favorites . Argentina continues to cheat death, Spain got past ...
Friday, July 3, 2026

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Round of 16

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We are on to the Round of 16, and the favorites have continued to win (for the most part) so there are no large changes in the overall odds...
Sunday, June 28, 2026

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Knockout Edition

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The knockout rounds are set, and because of the new extremely convoluted third place advancement rules  (path 67 occurred, for those wonderi...
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Michael Stock
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