Sunday, July 14, 2019

Can Federer Be the GOAT with a Losing H2H Record vs Nadal and Djokovic?

Men's Tennis (ATP)

Roger Federer is arguably the greatest tennis player of all-time. He's spent 310 weeks at #1 in the ATP world rankings, including 237 consecutive weeks; both are all-time records. He has 20 Grand Slam titles, also the all-time record.



PlayerGrand SlamsRankWeeks at #1RankWin %RankCareer WinsRankTotal TitlesRank
Federer201310182.2%31,22211021
Nadal182196383.0%19562822
Djokovic163260282.7%28713753

But he also has a strange hole in his resume; he has a losing record to two other players who have had their primes overlap with his: 22-26 vs Djokovic and 16-24 vs Nadal.



H2H Wins, Overall
PlayerFedererNadalDjokovicTotal
Federer-162238
Nadal24-2650
Djokovic2628-54
Total504448142

So can you be the GOAT, yet have 2 players be strictly better than you head-to-head?

This pattern holds up when you look at the matches that matter most: in both Grand Slams and finals, Federer does worse:


H2H Wins, In Grand Slams
PlayerFedererNadalDjokovicTotal
Federer-4610
Nadal10-919
Djokovic106-16
Total20101545

H2H Wins, In Finals
PlayerFedererNadalDjokovicTotal
Federer-10616
Nadal14-1125
Djokovic1315-28
Total27251769


You see this kind of intransitive property all the time in sports, especially in college football and college basketball. But tennis is an individual sport, so any variance in performance should theoretically be explained by that player, as opposed to a collection of players on a team.

But tennis does have one significant variable: the surface that the tournament is played on.


H2H Wins, Grass
PlayerFedererNadalDjokovicTotal
Federer-314
Nadal1-23
Djokovic32-5
Total45312


H2H Wins, Hard
PlayerFedererNadalDjokovicTotal
Federer-111728
Nadal9-716
Djokovic1919-38
Total28302482


H2H Wins, Clay
PlayerFedererNadalDjokovicTotal
Federer-246
Nadal14-1731
Djokovic47-11
Total1892148

Federer is 37 and has been a pro for 21 years, Nadal: 33 and 18, Djokovic: 32 and 16. So it might just be too early to tell. Each player's career isn't over yet, so all I can do is present this information without offering a conclusion.

To answer the overall "GOAT" question, I think you have to consider the overall body of work first and foremost. But that's an opinion - I don't really have a data-driven answer from the above evidence. 

Djokovic vs Nadal

Women's Tennis (WTA)

It's Serena Williams. End of post