World Series Preview with Pitching Matchups

I have to default to one of my (new) favorite quotes, "You can't predict sports!" Because according to my calculations, this World Series matchup had a 0.11% chance of occurring at the start of the playoffs: each team was the least likely to win their respective pennant. But, here we are.

First, I start with the likely pitching matchups for each game, which allows me to determine which team has the advantage based on starting pitching alone (a negative number indicates KC is favored):

Dif	Game	Fav Pitch
0.15	G1	SF
-0.35	G2	KC
0.09	G3	SF
0.09	G4	SF
0.15	G5	SF
-0.35	G6	KC
0.09	G7	SF

Now I can factor in home-field advantage:

Home Dif	Game	Fav Pitch
-0.15	G1	KC
-0.65	G2	KC
0.39	G3	SF
0.39	G4	SF
0.45	G5	SF
-0.65	G6	KC
-0.21	G7	KC

Not surprisingly, each team is favored in their respective home parks. Now I can do the full predictions involving the predicted winner based on their overall performance throughout the season:

Final Line	Game	Favorite	Win %
-0.34	G1	KC	54.53%
-0.85	G2	KC	61.13%
0.20	G3	SF	52.64%
0.19	G4	SF	52.55%
0.26	G5	SF	53.43%
-0.85	G6	KC	61.13%
-0.40	G7	KC	55.32%

Once again, it's clear home-field matters a LOT. The final totals conclude Kansas City wins it all 57.36% of the time, and San Francisco wins the title the other 42.64%.

Here's the breakdown of all possible outcomes:

KC in 4	SF in 4	In 4
7.49%	4.89%	12.38%
KC in 5	SF in 5	In 5
12.87%	11.95%	24.82%
KC in 6	SF in 6	In 6
19.74%	11.86%	31.60%
KC in 7	SF in 7	In 7
17.26%	13.94%	31.20%

The pick: Kansas City in 6