NCAA Tournament Bracket Math for the MDS Model

Quick turnaround this year:

Here are the picks by the MDS Model for this year's NCAA tournament, as well as the win probabilities (using Log5).

Note: The winning score prediction was gathered from Massey Ratings.

Round-by-round win probabilities:

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Midwest
1	Kentucky	100.00%	99.19%	92.69%	87.49%	78.53%	55.48%	41.77%
16*	Manhattan	81.98%	0.67%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16*	Hampton	18.02%	0.18%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Cincinnati	100.00%	67.69%	5.66%	3.38%	1.46%	0.27%	0.06%
9	Purdue	100.00%	32.31%	1.57%	0.66%	0.18%	0.02%	0.00%
5	West Virginia	100.00%	66.78%	41.74%	4.30%	1.74%	0.30%	0.06%
12	Buffalo	100.00%	33.22%	15.31%	0.91%	0.23%	0.02%	0.00%
4	Maryland	100.00%	73.06%	35.78%	2.99%	1.02%	0.14%	0.02%
13	Valparaiso	100.00%	26.94%	7.17%	0.26%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Butler	100.00%	45.98%	24.31%	10.72%	1.57%	0.31%	0.07%
11	Texas	100.00%	54.02%	30.59%	14.68%	2.39%	0.54%	0.14%
3	Notre Dame	100.00%	88.13%	43.70%	20.01%	3.07%	0.65%	0.16%
14	Northeastern	100.00%	11.87%	1.39%	0.15%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Wichita State	100.00%	69.03%	34.72%	19.07%	3.31%	0.80%	0.23%
10	Indiana	100.00%	30.97%	10.13%	3.60%	0.36%	0.05%	0.01%
2	Kansas	100.00%	89.41%	53.47%	31.52%	6.08%	1.65%	0.52%
15	New Mexico State	100.00%	10.59%	1.68%	0.25%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	West
1	Wisconsin	100.00%	98.47%	89.75%	69.40%	42.08%	18.63%	11.43%
16	Coastal Carolina	100.00%	1.53%	0.22%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Oregon	100.00%	39.88%	3.23%	0.75%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%
9	Oklahoma State	100.00%	60.12%	6.80%	2.07%	0.37%	0.04%	0.01%
5	Arkansas	100.00%	86.91%	29.01%	5.26%	1.15%	0.17%	0.04%
12	Wofford	100.00%	13.09%	1.11%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	North Carolina	100.00%	88.73%	66.46%	22.20%	8.80%	2.38%	0.93%
13	Harvard	100.00%	11.27%	3.42%	0.27%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Xavier	100.00%	59.35%	22.52%	4.51%	0.97%	0.16%	0.04%
11*	Brigham Young	52.55%	21.36%	6.47%	0.97%	0.16%	0.02%	0.00%
11*	Ole Miss	47.45%	18.14%	5.50%	0.82%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%
3	Baylor	100.00%	86.59%	48.83%	16.31%	5.73%	1.48%	0.55%
14	Georgia State	100.00%	13.41%	22.18%	1.77%	0.16%	0.01%	0.00%
7	Virginia Commonwealth	100.00%	34.60%	5.31%	2.53%	0.55%	0.09%	0.02%
10	Ohio State	100.00%	65.40%	16.56%	10.21%	3.37%	0.82%	0.29%
2	Arizona	100.00%	99.62%	78.13%	63.72%	36.55%	15.94%	9.66%
15	Texas Southern	100.00%	0.38%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	East
1	Villanova	100.00%	97.50%	83.64%	64.72%	34.25%	20.98%	7.68%
16	Lafayette	100.00%	2.50%	0.35%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	North Carolina State	100.00%	63.56%	11.65%	4.83%	1.00%	0.25%	0.03%
9	LSU	100.00%	36.44%	4.36%	1.28%	0.18%	0.03%	0.00%
5	Northern Iowa	100.00%	89.50%	38.17%	9.34%	2.10%	0.57%	0.07%
12	Wyoming	100.00%	10.50%	1.04%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Louisville	100.00%	89.69%	58.66%	19.61%	6.10%	2.27%	0.42%
13	UC Irvine	100.00%	10.31%	2.13%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Providence	100.00%	65.79%	21.08%	3.49%	0.83%	0.19%	0.02%
11*	Boise State	48.42%	16.57%	3.39%	0.33%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
11*	Dayton	51.58%	18.39%	3.76%	0.37%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
3	Oklahoma	100.00%	96.91%	57.68%	17.27%	6.90%	2.78%	0.57%
14	Albany	100.00%	3.09%	17.85%	0.29%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Michigan State	100.00%	72.47%	16.25%	9.92%	3.69%	1.38%	0.26%
10	Georgia	100.00%	27.53%	2.89%	1.21%	0.24%	0.05%	0.00%
2	Virginia	100.00%	98.49%	80.75%	67.47%	44.64%	30.28%	13.05%
15	Belmont	100.00%	1.51%	0.11%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	South
1	Duke	100.00%	98.05%	81.28%	48.64%	29.55%	13.58%	4.26%
16*	Robert Morris	66.52%	1.30%	0.12%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16*	North Florida	33.48%	0.99%	0.09%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	San Diego State	100.00%	59.90%	12.06%	3.41%	0.98%	0.18%	0.02%
9	St. John	100.00%	40.10%	6.55%	1.40%	0.30%	0.04%	0.00%
5	Utah	100.00%	88.63%	66.28%	36.15%	21.39%	9.49%	2.85%
12	Stephen F. Austin	100.00%	11.37%	3.43%	0.54%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%
4	Georgetown	100.00%	90.14%	29.67%	9.82%	3.61%	0.89%	0.13%
13	Eastern Washington	100.00%	9.86%	0.62%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Southern Methodist	100.00%	75.47%	36.62%	12.87%	4.12%	1.04%	0.16%
11	UCLA	100.00%	24.53%	6.23%	1.00%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%
3	Iowa State	100.00%	90.65%	55.69%	22.28%	8.21%	2.42%	0.45%
14	UAB	100.00%	9.35%	1.46%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Iowa	100.00%	66.39%	16.68%	7.25%	1.99%	0.43%	0.06%
10	Davidson	100.00%	33.61%	5.07%	1.45%	0.24%	0.03%	0.00%
2	Gonzaga	100.00%	98.11%	78.11%	55.04%	29.38%	13.11%	3.96%
15	North Dakota State	100.00%	1.89%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

It's unlikely anyone stops Kentucky from going undefeated. I have Kentucky's Pyth rating at 0.989, which is extremely high (KenPom has them at 0.979), and yet I still only (yeah, only) have them winning the title 41.77% of the time. This is very, very high (for example, compared to the most likely champion by MDS last year, Arizona, which only had odds of 23.63% to win it all), and yet they're STILL overvauled by the sportsbooks, where you can get them at 1/1 odds (which implies 50%).

I have a few value bets for winning it all:

Team

Implied Odds

MDS Odds

Value

Virginia

5.56%

13.05%

7.49%

Arizona

7.69%

9.66%

1.97%

Utah

1.79%

2.85%

1.06%

So UNC is at 66.46% to make the second weekend (Los Angeles), and 8.80% to make the Final Four (Indianapolis).