Aside from UNC's lofty expectations for next season, the question surrounding Tokoto's draft decision is whether declaring for this year's draft was the right choice financially. This year's draft is loaded, and Tokoto was projected 26th in 2016's draft, which would have made him a late first rounder. However, that assumes that he wouldn't have lost significant playing time or gotten injured in his senior season at UNC.
The NBA Draft switched to 2 rounds in 1989, and since then, 70.25% of second round picks have ended up playing in the NBA. So right off the bat we can discount his expected first-year NBA earnings by that rate, since almost 3 in 10 second round picks don't ever end up playing in the NBA. Meanwhile, 98.80% of first round picks have played in the NBA: but that doesn't even matter, because first round contracts are guaranteed. As a projected 26th pick in 2016, Tokoto would have received his money regardless of whether he ever played an NBA game (which, of course, would also be more than that of a second round contract). Additionally, a late first round rookie contract is generally guaranteed for 2 years, with a team option for 2 additional years.
Then there's the possibility he goes undrafted, with the best-case scenario probably being the D-League, followed by hopefully a chance as a bench player with an NBA team (i.e. the path James Michael McAdoo took to playing for the Golden State Warriors). Alternatively, he could play in Europe, which would pay more than the D-League (although recently the Euro has greatly weakened relative to the US Dollar; I doubt this factored into his decision at all). However, it's hard to find contract information for European leagues to compare to the other possible scenarios, so here are the NBA/D-League possibilities:
| Contract | Guaranteed Money | Expected Money | Discounted Value |
| Late 1st Round | $2,350,000 | $2,350,000 | $2,350,000 |
| Late 2nd Round | $0 | $500,000 | $350,000 |
| Undrafted | $0 | $150,000 | ??? (< $150k) |
The discounted value takes into account the possibility of getting drafted and not making an NBA roster. Figures are taken from similar players in each contract situation (all data gathered from Basketball-Reference, and much of the analysis contained in this post is credited to my roommate).
Clearly the first round possibility is the best one, so it's likely Tokoto didn't see that staying for his senior season would cause his draft stock to improve. And the clear financial alternative not yet discussed is for this scenario: staying to play in the NCAA for another year would result in a salary of absolutely nothing. So even the "worst case" of < $150k is clearly greater than 0. And this exact case is working out for McAdoo (who also surprised Carolina fans last year by leaving for the NBA), since the Warriors are one of the favorites to win it all. It's quite possible he wins a ring in his first year in the league.
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