2008, Meineke Car Care Bowl, West Virginia, semi-home in Charlotte. Back and forth game, but we lead in the fourth. West Virginia goes up by 1 midway through the quarter, but we start driving down the field needing only a field goal. Interception with under 2 minutes to play. L
2009, Meineke Car Care Bowl, Pittsburgh, Charlotte again. Back and forth game, again, but we lead, again, late into the fourth. Pitt kicks the winning field goal with 0:52 remaining. L
2013, Miami, ranked #10, the first/last night game in Kenan Stadium in years. We outplay them the whole game. Have the lead the whole game. Duke Johnson goes out early, injured. Doesn't matter. Miami runs the ball straight down the field to take the lead with little time left. L
2014, Notre Dame, they're emerging as a possible playoff contender, we're riding a 3-game losing streak with nothing to lose. We go up 14-0 early on great defensive plays. Still no chance. L
This pattern of maddening consistent mediocrity is why, regardless of whether we control the game against a good opponent, I still hold the bitter resignation at all times that that "L" is inevitable.
It's why, halfway through the second quarter, when we had the lead and were quite frankly dominating the game, all of my college friends and I were convinced we were going to lose anyway. It's why, once we got the ball inside the 20 on that last drive, having moved it down the field with little resistance thus far, that I texted "time for us to turn it over", and no one disagreed with that statement. Of course, this proved true moments later with a pick in the end zone. So on that note, and the ultimate point of this "analysis": we didn't convert in the red zone. That's why we lost.
Spurrier: How many yards they have?
"440"
Spurrier: Yeah, 440 and 13 points. That don't match up
— Chip Patterson (@Chip_Patterson) September 4, 2015
The Ol' Ball Coach is right.
The average red zone conversion rate (defined as either successfully scoring a touchdown OR a field goal once inside the 20) in 2014 was 81.78%. We ranked 87th in FBS last year with 79.59% (but had ranked 12th in 2013 with 90.70%). Even that 87th-best success rate would have been good enough last night. Instead, the following happened (and I'm including when we got to the 21 to illustrate my point):
1st Quarter
Ball at the SC 6. Interception in the end zone, 0/1
Ball at the SC 21. Touchdown! 1/2
2nd Quarter
Ball to the SC 15, sacked back to the SC 21 (getting to the 15 makes this a red zone opportunity). Field goal! 2/3
3rd Quarter
Ball to the SC 21. Interception inside the 20. 2/4
4th Quarter
Ball to the SC 8. Interception in the end zone, 2/5
40% success rate. Less than half the national average. If we get anything out of one of those three opportunities, we win that ball game. But of course, we didn't, and we start the season 0-1, having lost a game we definitely should have won.
L
No comments:
Post a Comment