Hurricane Joaquin Could Decide if Houston Gets to the ALDS

The Houston Astros (HOU) are currently hanging on for dear life to the second wild card spot in the AL, up 1 game on both the Angels (LAA) and the Twins (MIN) with 3 games to play. However, they're 3 games back to the Rangers (TEX) with 3 to play as well, meaning there are numerous different scenarios that could play out:

1. There is only ONE scenario in which HOU wins the AL West and makes it to the ALDS directly, without having to play in the Wild Card game: if they sweep the Diamondbacks (ARI) (on the road) 3-0, TEX gets swept 0-3 by LAA (at home), and then HOU beats TEX in the one game playoff for the AL West title. Baseball Prospectus gives a 0.3% chance that this happens. And if they lose this game, HOU still gets the second wild card spot.
2. If a three-way tie occurs between HOU, LAA, and MIN for the second wild card spot, things get even more complicated:  
• "Teams would be designated A, B, C based on head-to-head record. That favors the Angels: Angels: 14-12, Astros: 13-12, Twins: 5-8. So the Angels would pick their designation: They could play at home Monday and Tuesday or on the road Tuesday against the winner of the Astros-Twins game. They presumably would pick to play just one game. So the Astros would host the Twins on Monday and the winner hosts the Angels on Tuesday."
3. If HOU matches or exceeds LAA and MIN in each teams' last 3 games, HOU holds on to the second wild card and would play the New York Yankees (NYY) in New York. This is the most likely scenario, since LAA has to play TEX, who are fighting to win the division, and MIN is playing the Royals (KC), who are fighting the Blue Jays (TOR) for home-field throughout the playoffs.
4. If HOU ties one of LAA or MIN (but not both), they will play a one game playoff to get in to the one game playoff against NYY.

In any case, Baseball Prospectus gives HOU a 70% chance to grab the second wild card spot between all of the above scenarios. So for simplicity's sake, let's assume that happens. So HOU will play at NYY in the one game Wild Card game. This is where it gets interesting...

Due to all of the complex battling described above, HOU is trotting out Dallas Keuchel (their best starter) tonight against ARI. It's generally agreed he's a front-runner for the AL Cy Young, and with a win tonight at ARI, he would get to 20 wins on the year. HOU definitely wants him pitching the do-or-die Wild Card game in New York. But here's the issue: Keuchel has to start tonight, and the AL Wild Card game is currently slated for Tuesday, which means he would only get three days's rest between the two games. And he has never started on three day's rest in his career.

Here's where Hurricane Joaquin comes in: as noted in this article, a rain out due to the hurricane would push the AL Wild Card game to Wednesday, which would allow Keuchel to pitch in the Bronx. And this makes a HUGE difference.

I've recently finished my play-by-play baseball simulator (more on that in another post), which allows me to simulate the game in New York with and without Keuchel starting. It seems very likely that Masahiro Tanaka will be the starter for the Yankees, so HOU's starting pitcher is the variable I will change, running a simulation on each scenario 10,000 times. 

With Keuchel as the starter, HOU beats NYY 54.61% of the time by an average score of 4.30 to 3.66. With Collin McHugh (their second-best starter) on the mound, HOU beats NYY 47.37% of the time by an average score of 4.29 to 4.31. 

Whether Keuchel starts determines whether HOU is the favorite in this game, which in turn will likely be dictated by Hurricane Joaquin's effect on New York City. If you're a Houston fan and they manage to make it to the Wild Card game, you want a rain out on Tuesday.