"I've been parking in a construction lot at FIU since June with no problem. I got ticketed today for the first time, but need to continue parking there through December. Should I purchase a parking permit, pay for hourly/daily parking, or keep risking it?"
This question is a straight-forward cost/benefit analysis if we can gauge the expected cost of each of these options. So here are our parameters:
Timeline: June to December (28 weeks)
Frequency: 3 times a week
Cost of Parking Permit: $140
Cost of Daily Parking: $8/day
Cost of Parking Ticket: $20
Option A: Purchase a parking permit
The only factor to consider here is the cost of the permit, which is $140. Upon obtaining that, there is a 0% chance of getting fined further.
Option B: Pay for daily parking
19 weeks have elapsed already, with 9 weeks to go. At 3 times a week * 9 weeks * $8, that's a cost of $216. As with Option A, there is a 0% chance of getting fined further.
Option C: Risk it
This is the option that takes a bit more math. First we have to gauge the probability of getting caught. Through 19 weeks, they've gotten fined once. If parking patrol is actively looking for this same car now, then the probability of getting caught again is higher. However, for simplicity we'll assume it's evenly distributed: 1/(19*3) = 1/57 = 1.75%. Assuming the fine doesn't escalate for repeat offenders, we take 1.75% * 9 weeks remaining * 3 days a week * $20 = $9.47.
Clearly risking it is the superior strategy, given our assumptions and your level of risk aversion.
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