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Monday, March 25, 2019

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2019)

I caught some flack for my model being so chalky going into the tournament, and well, here we are:


SeedTeamElite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
Sweet 16
1Duke67.55%40.85%23.65%13.52%
4Virginia Tech32.45%13.91%5.58%2.20%
3LSU32.63%11.01%3.91%1.37%
2Michigan St.67.37%34.23%18.13%9.48%
1Gonzaga66.97%39.31%21.62%12.03%
4Florida St.33.03%13.65%5.20%2.01%
3Texas Tech45.10%20.03%8.78%3.90%
2Michigan54.90%27.01%13.13%6.46%
1Virginia82.75%52.68%33.34%19.30%
12Oregon17.25%4.77%1.32%0.31%
3Purdue44.18%17.47%8.12%3.33%
2Tennessee55.82%25.07%13.11%6.12%
1North Carolina64.01%37.41%18.68%9.42%
5Auburn35.99%15.95%5.79%2.12%
3Houston40.75%16.80%6.13%2.25%
2Kentucky59.25%29.84%13.52%6.18%

Virginia is the only team with better than a 50/50 chance of making the Final Four at this point, and no team has even a 1 in 5 chance of winning it all. Interestingly, they are also the only team to see their odds improve from prior to the tournament. The chalkyness of results has left Duke, Carolina, and Gonzaga relatively unchanged. Even so, there is a 54% likelihood that one of the 1 seeds ends up winning it all.

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