NBA Playoffs 2020 Bracket Math

Last year, I used each team's Pythagorean expectation to project their odds of advancing in each round of the NBA playoffs. 

This year, I'm debuting my new NBA play-by-play simulator, which is built fairly similarly to my NCAAB play-by-play simulator, with the key differences centered around:

• Number of possessions / length of game
• Rule differences
• Choosing which lineups are played
• Allows for far more flexibility with injuries / opt outs in the bubble

Unfortunately, I do not make any type of playoff adjustment like FiveThirtyEight does, so I'm certainly understating the chances of LeBron and the Lakers.

Outside of that, the strange neutral court environment makes the math fairly straight forward, since I don't have to make any travel/home court adjustments.

Below are the chances of each team advancing to each round, plus the filled out predicted bracket at the bottom:

Seed	Conference	Team	Round 2	Conf Finals	Finals	Champion
1	East	MIL	84.4%	49.2%	34.4%	22.4%
8	East	ORL	15.6%	3.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	East	IND	18.3%	4.1%	1.4%	0.4%
5	East	MIA	81.7%	43.6%	28.8%	17.5%
3	East	BOS	65.0%	32.2%	11.0%	4.8%
6	East	PHI	35.0%	10.3%	2.4%	0.7%
2	East	TOR	83.0%	51.5%	20.0%	10.1%
7	East	BKN	17.0%	5.9%	1.2%	0.3%
Seed	Conference	Team	Round 2	Conf Finals	Finals	Champion
1	West	LAL	62.5%	28.2%	13.6%	5.4%
8	West	POR	37.5%	12.5%	4.1%	1.1%
4	West	HOU	44.3%	23.8%	11.0%	4.4%
5	West	OKC	55.7%	35.5%	19.7%	9.4%
3	West	DEN	46.3%	12.8%	4.7%	1.5%
6	West	UTA	53.7%	19.6%	8.4%	3.0%
2	West	LAC	60.6%	43.6%	26.3%	13.5%
7	West	DAL	39.4%	24.0%	12.3%	5.2%

Takeaways:

• Heat and Thunder are REALLY elevated relative to conventional wisdom/betting markets
• Heat are 25/1 to win it all (~4% implied probability)
• Thunder are 60/1 to win it all (~1.5% implied probability)
• Lakers and Clippers on upset alert in round 1
• Upsets outright projected are Heat (5) over Pacers (4) (not really an upset), Thunder (5) over Rockets (4), Jazz (6) over Nuggets (3)

Here are the in depth projections for each first round matchup:

# Games	LAL in...	POR in...
4	9.7%	3.8%
5	17.1%	8.5%
6	18.9%	11.9%
7	16.7%	13.3%
	62.5%	37.5%

# Games	LAC in...	DAL in...
4	9.1%	4.1%
5	16.4%	9.1%
6	18.5%	12.5%
7	16.7%	13.7%
	60.6%	39.4%

# Games	DEN in...	UTA in...
4	5.4%	7.1%
5	11.3%	13.8%
6	14.5%	16.7%
7	15.0%	16.1%
	46.3%	53.7%

# Games	HOU in...	OKC in...
4	5.0%	7.7%
5	10.6%	14.5%
6	14.0%	17.2%
7	14.7%	16.3%
	44.3%	55.7%

# Games	MIL in...	ORL in...
4	21.2%	1.1%
5	27.2%	2.9%
6	21.9%	4.9%
7	14.1%	6.7%
	84.4%	15.6%

# Games	TOR in...	BKN in...
4	20.0%	1.2%
5	26.5%	3.2%
6	21.9%	5.4%
7	14.5%	7.2%
	83.0%	17.0%

# Games	BOS in...	PHI in...
4	10.5%	3.4%
5	18.1%	7.8%
6	19.5%	11.1%
7	16.8%	12.7%
	65.0%	35.0%

# Games	IND in...	MIA in...
4	1.3%	19.0%
5	3.5%	25.9%
6	5.8%	21.9%
7	7.7%	14.9%
	18.3%	81.7%