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Tuesday, October 13, 2020

LeBron vs Jordan, Revisited

 Three years ago, I compared the Finals records of LeBron and Jordan and concluded that:

  1. LeBron has gone up against harder Finals competition
  2. Jordan had a much deeper supporting cast
  3. Both players had comparable starting teammates
    1. Jordan did have a top 25 all-time teammate for all 6 titles in Scottie Pippen
Since then, LeBron has completed three more Finals and won one of them to move to 4-6 in 10 Finals.

As before, I took every season in which either player made the NBA Finals and compared the other starters' average PER on each team, the top two units' average PER (starters and top five bench players), and each star's PER in each season.

Jordan
SeasonWon TitleStartersTop 2 UnitsPER
1990-91Y16.4015.0531.6
1991-92Y17.7315.5927.7
1992-93Y16.9214.6329.7
1995-96Y17.8815.7729.4
1996-97Y16.8616.0727.8
1997-98Y15.3214.7125.2
Average16.8515.3028.57

LeBron
SeasonWon TitleStartersTop 2 UnitsPER
2006-07N15.1213.3324.5
2010-11*N18.2915.1427.3
2011-12Y17.2713.9330.7
2012-13Y18.3214.9431.6
2013-14N13.9814.7729.3
2014-15*N18.1315.9125.9
2015-16Y15.6514.2627.5
2016-17N17.3914.6827
2017-18N14.2513.5028.6
2019-20*Y16.1315.2425.5
Average16.4514.5727.79
Y16.8414.5928.83
N16.1914.5627.10
*First postseason on a new team; 2010-11: Miami Heat, 2014-15: Cleveland Cavaliers; 2019-20: Los Angeles Lakers

The weakness of the 2017-18 Cavs without Kyrie Irving drags down LeBron's supporting cast metrics, to the point that now Jordan has a large edge in both his starter and bench teammates.

For LeBron, winning titles and Finals MVP on three different teams (which no one else has ever done) leads to a completely stylistic question - is that more or less impressive than winning two separate three-peats with the same franchise + coach + nucleus?

What still sets LeBron's path apart as more difficult is the competition he faced in the Finals:

Jordan
SeasonWon TitleOpponent Starters
1990-91Y18.18
1991-92Y16.68
1992-93Y18.06
1995-96Y18.36
1996-97Y20.41
1997-98Y19.87
Average18.59

LeBron
SeasonWon TitleOpponent Starters
2006-07N18.73
2010-11*N17.76
2011-12Y20.31
2012-13Y19.37
2013-14N17.79
2014-15*N18.55
2015-16Y19.68
2016-17N20.10
2017-18N19.43
2019-20*Y17.32
Average18.90
Y19.17
N18.73

Jordan had to play an opponent with an average starting PER of > 19 twice (both against the Utah Jazz). LeBron has had to do that five times, and has gone 3-2 against that level of competition (and those two losses are against the best roster of talent ever assembled (Golden State Warriors, 2016-17 and 2017-18)).

Do you prefer peak value or long-term near-peak consistency? How much do you weigh LeBron's 2011 Finals collapse against Jordan's perfection?
Kevin Pelton's "Championships Added" metric rates Jordan as higher consistently in the Finals, but LeBron's longevity over 10 Finals has him up in total, 2.94 Championships Added to Jordan's 2.21.

Jordan had a better peak. But LeBron has already had the better career. So who is the G.O.A.T.? Does LeBron's human moment of weakness in 2011 outweigh arguably the two greatest titles, over the greatest regular season team ever in the greatest comeback ever (73-9 Warriors, down 3-1) and in the most unique circumstances in the history of the sport (this year, 2020)?

Brian Windhorst eloquently sums up what is illustrated in the above charts:
He lost when he should have won. He won when he should have lost. And then he delivered one of the greatest comebacks in sports history.

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