NCAA Tournament 2026 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

Update for the composite this year - swapped in Bart Torvik for Seven Overtimes, since Seven Overtimes now appears to route to KenPom. This year's composite contains 4 models:

• KenPom (the one and only)
• Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
• T-Rank (created and maintained by Bart Torvik)
• Nate Silver's COOPER Ratings (behind a paywall, but rating systems for both men's and women's)

As always, I use a weighted average of these 4 ratings, which smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I use to project the tournament.

Now the bracket math. Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them, except for Miami (OH) - even though they're super low in all projection systems, going undefeated in the regular season absolutely merits inclusion in the bracket.

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	East
1	Duke	100.00%	98.32%	80.97%	62.90%	46.62%	31.37%	19.56%
16	Siena	100.00%	1.68%	0.20%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Ohio St.	100.00%	55.72%	11.40%	5.31%	2.22%	0.76%	0.23%
9	TCU	100.00%	44.28%	7.43%	3.06%	1.11%	0.33%	0.08%
5	St. John's	100.00%	75.47%	44.29%	14.29%	7.15%	3.02%	1.14%
12	Northern Iowa	100.00%	24.53%	8.18%	1.12%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%
4	Kansas	100.00%	81.86%	43.62%	12.97%	6.09%	2.39%	0.83%
13	Cal Baptist	100.00%	18.14%	3.91%	0.34%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
6	Louisville	100.00%	66.81%	32.70%	16.13%	5.53%	2.22%	0.79%
11	South Florida	100.00%	33.19%	11.04%	3.65%	0.77%	0.19%	0.04%
3	Michigan St.	100.00%	87.64%	53.80%	29.70%	11.76%	5.40%	2.21%
14	North Dakota St.	100.00%	12.36%	2.46%	0.40%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%
7	UCLA	100.00%	62.04%	24.64%	10.67%	3.10%	1.06%	0.32%
10	UCF	100.00%	37.96%	11.06%	3.54%	0.72%	0.17%	0.04%
2	Connecticut	100.00%	94.35%	63.55%	35.84%	14.55%	6.83%	2.87%
15	Furman	100.00%	5.65%	0.74%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	South
1	Florida	100.00%	98.94%	72.93%	48.45%	28.63%	15.22%	7.94%
16*	Lehigh	100.00%	1.06%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Clemson	100.00%	46.07%	11.66%	4.69%	1.55%	0.44%	0.12%
9	Iowa	100.00%	53.93%	15.36%	6.75%	2.47%	0.78%	0.24%
5	Vanderbilt	100.00%	76.98%	43.41%	18.81%	8.63%	3.49%	1.37%
12	McNeese	100.00%	23.02%	6.87%	1.31%	0.27%	0.05%	0.01%
4	Nebraska	100.00%	88.69%	48.05%	19.85%	8.70%	3.34%	1.24%
13	Troy	100.00%	11.31%	1.68%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
6	North Carolina	100.00%	58.53%	21.07%	7.67%	2.72%	0.84%	0.25%
11	VCU	100.00%	41.47%	11.93%	3.46%	0.97%	0.23%	0.05%
3	Illinois	100.00%	93.80%	66.00%	35.16%	18.46%	8.67%	3.98%
14	Penn	100.00%	6.20%	0.99%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	St. Mary's	100.00%	60.04%	21.15%	9.09%	3.50%	1.18%	0.38%
10	Texas A&M	100.00%	39.96%	10.74%	3.62%	1.07%	0.27%	0.07%
2	Houston	100.00%	94.06%	67.15%	40.81%	23.00%	11.67%	5.80%
15	Idaho	100.00%	5.94%	0.97%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
	West
1	Arizona	100.00%	98.54%	79.78%	59.86%	41.72%	25.03%	14.73%
16	Long Island	100.00%	1.46%	0.14%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Villanova	100.00%	50.04%	10.06%	4.32%	1.58%	0.44%	0.12%
9	Utah St.	100.00%	49.96%	10.02%	4.30%	1.57%	0.44%	0.12%
5	Wisconsin	100.00%	77.28%	40.50%	13.03%	5.83%	2.06%	0.70%
12	High Point	100.00%	22.72%	5.95%	0.74%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%
4	Arkansas	100.00%	85.44%	50.37%	17.47%	8.31%	3.15%	1.16%
13	Hawaii	100.00%	14.56%	3.18%	0.27%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%
6	BYU	100.00%	58.78%	26.22%	11.72%	4.10%	1.41%	0.47%
11*	North Carolina St.	100.00%	41.22%	15.06%	5.48%	1.52%	0.41%	0.11%
3	Gonzaga	100.00%	91.71%	57.50%	30.87%	13.41%	5.77%	2.41%
14	Kennesaw St.	100.00%	8.29%	1.21%	0.13%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Miami (FL)	100.00%	59.37%	21.16%	8.81%	2.71%	0.82%	0.24%
10	Missouri	100.00%	40.63%	11.25%	3.70%	0.87%	0.20%	0.04%
2	Purdue	100.00%	95.54%	67.04%	39.25%	18.18%	8.35%	3.73%
15	Queens	100.00%	4.46%	0.55%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Midwest
1	Michigan	100.00%	98.03%	80.55%	61.01%	41.76%	26.36%	15.85%
16*	UMBC	100.00%	1.97%	0.25%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Georgia	100.00%	52.63%	10.53%	4.55%	1.59%	0.48%	0.13%
9	Saint Louis	100.00%	47.37%	8.66%	3.53%	1.15%	0.32%	0.08%
5	Texas Tech	100.00%	74.64%	42.81%	14.63%	6.67%	2.69%	1.00%
12	Akron	100.00%	25.36%	8.33%	1.28%	0.29%	0.06%	0.01%
4	Alabama	100.00%	78.43%	43.15%	14.26%	6.33%	2.48%	0.89%
13	Hofstra	100.00%	21.57%	5.72%	0.70%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%
6	Tennessee	100.00%	79.10%	41.59%	18.25%	6.84%	2.73%	1.01%
11*	Miami (OH)	100.00%	20.90%	5.13%	0.91%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%
3	Virginia	100.00%	89.10%	51.46%	23.46%	9.16%	3.82%	1.47%
14	Wright St.	100.00%	10.90%	1.82%	0.18%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Kentucky	100.00%	53.23%	16.53%	7.08%	2.13%	0.69%	0.20%
10	Santa Clara	100.00%	46.77%	13.28%	5.29%	1.45%	0.43%	0.11%
2	Iowa St.	100.00%	96.48%	69.80%	44.80%	22.34%	11.80%	5.85%
15	Tennessee St.	100.00%	3.52%	0.39%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	64.00	32.00	16.00	8.00	4.00	2.00	1.00
Seed	Team	1st Round
16*	Lehigh	54.52%
16*	Prairie View A&M	45.48%
16*	UMBC	53.66%
16*	Howard	46.34%
11*	Texas	48.72%
11*	North Carolina St.	51.28%
11*	Miami (OH)	32.67%
11*	SMU	67.33%

Some notes:

• There is a clear cut-off after the top 3 teams (Duke, Michigan, Arizona): these 3 teams combine to win the majority of the time (barely, 50.1%)
• Duke has a pretty tough path, with SIX other top ~25 teams in their region - Connecticut (#9 in my rankings), Michigan St (#11),  St. John's (#14), Louisville (#20), Kansas (#21), and Ohio St (#26) all could await them
• This is without factoring in Carolina getting a 6 seed and the same first round site (Greenville, SC) could lead to some very rowdy anti-Duke crowds
• Even still, I have them with the best title odds, at 19.6%
• Michigan, literally tied for first in some systems, is surprisingly far behind in second at 15.9%
• 29% chance the Big 10 ends its title drought since 2000 - easily the funniest outcome would be Nebraska getting it done (1.2%)
• As mentioned, the model does not like Miami (OH) to get out of Dayton. This is the backbone of projections systems (strength of schedule), to account for their weak schedule (not for lack of trying on their part, per a bunch of Open Records Requests). But going undefeated in the regular season, however unlikely, is a great achievement

Full rankings:

Rank	Seed	Team	Rating
1	1	Duke	96.10
2	1	Michigan	95.09
3	1	Arizona	94.62
4	1	Florida	92.33
5	2	Houston	91.43
6	2	Iowa St.	91.22
7	3	Illinois	90.03
8	2	Purdue	89.43
9	2	Connecticut	88.63
10	3	Gonzaga	88.35
11	3	Michigan St.	88.24
12	5	Vanderbilt	87.55
13	3	Virginia	87.12
14	5	St. John's	86.93
15	4	Nebraska	86.80
16	5	Texas Tech	86.65
17	6	Tennessee	86.50
18	4	Arkansas	86.43
19	4	Alabama	86.19
20	6	Louisville	86.12
21	4	Kansas	85.85
22	5	Wisconsin	85.40
23	6	BYU	85.08
24	7	St. Mary's	84.90
25	9	Iowa	84.10
26	8	Ohio St.	83.99
27	7	UCLA	83.90
28	6	North Carolina	83.78
29	7	Kentucky	83.47
30	7	Miami (FL)	83.34
31	8	Clemson	82.73
32	8	Georgia	82.65
33	8	Villanova	82.40
34	9	Utah St.	82.39
35	10	Santa Clara	82.34
36	9	TCU	81.99
37	11	North Carolina St.	81.99
38	9	Saint Louis	81.73
39	11	Texas	81.54
40	11	SMU	81.46
41	10	Texas A&M	81.36
42	11	VCU	80.77
43	11	South Florida	80.06
44	10	Missouri	80.03
45	10	UCF	79.62
46	12	Akron	77.39
47	12	Northern Iowa	77.32
48	12	McNeese	77.26
49	13	Hofstra	75.21
50	11	Miami (OH)	75.20
51	12	High Point	74.97
52	13	Cal Baptist	73.15
53	14	North Dakota St.	72.10
54	13	Hawaii	71.71
55	14	Wright St.	69.94
56	13	Troy	69.92
57	15	Idaho	69.67
58	14	Kennesaw St.	69.02
59	14	Penn	68.57
60	15	Furman	66.51
61	16	Siena	66.46
62	16	UMBC	66.36
63	15	Tennessee St.	65.98
64	15	Queens	65.72
65	16	Howard	65.07
66	16	Long Island	64.19
67	16	Lehigh	60.18
68	16	Prairie View A&M	58.59