Sunday, July 14, 2013

How crowd sourcing on STFC picks college basketball spreads well enough to turn a profit

When I analyzed the 2013 picks on Streak for the Cash, I not only categorized picks by sport and league, but also took game picks from those categories and split them again into the two most common gambling options: straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). I was mostly interested in picks against the spread, since any advantage that picks correctly more than 52.38% of the time will beat the typical Vegas line of -110. All categories against the spread actually did worse than 50%, except one: college basketball. The overall record for these picks was 98-81 (54.75%), well above the expected result of 50% and also above the critical 52.38% threshold. As before, the more confident the pick, the better the results: sides with 75-100% of picks went 72-30, winning a whopping 70.59% of the time.


It should be noted that the data I collected was only from January 1 on, so it only includes half of the season. However, had you placed a $110 bet on every consensus NCAAB ATS pick on STFC from January 1 to the end of the season, you would have made a $890 profit- a 4.52% return. Had you chosen to limit your bets to the more confident 75-100% consensus picks, you would have made a $3900 profit- a massive 34.76% return.

1 comment:

  1. Great article. I'm also into sports betting. I'm getting my sports picks at www.dynamitepicks.com. They provide great picks that will surely help you to win.

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