Monday, March 10, 2014

2014 ACC Tournament Projections

Using the ratings given by my Aggregate Model (composed of the following NCAAB models: KenPomMasseyJeff Sagarin7OTsCompughter, and Moore), I've projected the likelihood of each team winning the ACC tournament in two ways.
Note: All games are considered neutral site

First, here are the final ratings:


RankTeamRate
1Virginia0.9112
2Duke0.9111
3Syracuse0.8795
4North Carolina0.8350
5Pitt0.8212
6FSU0.7403
7Maryland0.7295
8Clemson0.7085
9NC St0.7012
10Miami FL0.6712
11Notre Dame0.6416
12Ga Tech0.5964
13Wake Forest0.5935
14Boston College0.5100
15Va Tech0.4641



This was then used to determine the straightforward probabilities for each team making it to each round of the ACC Tournament:
Note: The Log5 formula is used to determine each game's win probabilities

SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Virginia100.00%100.00%78.72%54.28%27.14%
8Maryland100.00%48.61%10.11%3.77%1.89%
9FSU100.00%51.39%11.17%4.31%2.15%
4North Carolina100.00%100.00%58.47%23.23%11.62%
5Pitt100.00%73.72%35.07%13.18%6.59%
12Wake Forest44.92%10.83%2.43%0.42%0.21%
13Notre Dame55.08%15.45%4.04%0.81%0.40%
2Syracuse100.00%100.00%77.58%36.83%18.41%
7NC St100.00%59.31%14.43%3.49%1.75%
10Miami FL70.22%32.67%7.14%1.57%0.78%
15Va Tech29.78%8.03%0.85%0.10%0.05%
3Duke100.00%100.00%83.53%53.29%26.64%
6Clemson100.00%65.42%12.54%3.91%1.96%
11Ga Tech58.68%22.19%2.80%0.62%0.31%
14Boston College41.32%12.39%1.14%0.19%0.10%
Then, these ratings were used in a Monte Carlo simulator that simulated the tournament 10,000 times:

Virginia TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 3086
Syracuse TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 1887
Duke TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 3074
North Carolina TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 935
Pittsburgh TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 508
Clemson TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 108
NC St TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 83
Maryland TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 107
FSU TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 128
Miami FL TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 41
Ga Tech TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 16
Wake Forest TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 8
Notre Dame TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 14
Boston College TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 4
Va Tech TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 1
# of simulations: 10000

Converting these simulations into percentages by dividing each team's number of wins by the number of simulations (10,000):

Virginia TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 30.86%
Syracuse TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 18.87%
Duke TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 30.74%
North Carolina TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 9.35%
Pittsburgh TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 5.08%
Clemson TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 1.08%
NC St TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.83%
Maryland TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 1.07%
FSU TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 1.28%
Miami FL TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.41%
Ga Tech TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.16%
Wake Forest TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.08%
Notre Dame TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.14%
Boston College TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.04%
Va Tech TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.01%

Virginia and Duke are the clear favorites, as was originally indicated by their top 2 ratings. As noted by Ken Pomeroy, seeding has little effect on a team's chances of winning the tournament. This is illustrated here, since both teams' ratings are nearly identical and their chances of winning it all are extremely similar as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment