2014 ACC Tournament Projections

Using the ratings given by my Aggregate Model (composed of the following NCAAB models: KenPom, Massey, Jeff Sagarin, 7OTs, Compughter, and Moore), I've projected the likelihood of each team winning the ACC tournament in two ways.
Note: All games are considered neutral site

First, here are the final ratings:

Rank	Team	Rate
1	Virginia	0.9112
2	Duke	0.9111
3	Syracuse	0.8795
4	North Carolina	0.8350
5	Pitt	0.8212
6	FSU	0.7403
7	Maryland	0.7295
8	Clemson	0.7085
9	NC St	0.7012
10	Miami FL	0.6712
11	Notre Dame	0.6416
12	Ga Tech	0.5964
13	Wake Forest	0.5935
14	Boston College	0.5100
15	Va Tech	0.4641

This was then used to determine the straightforward probabilities for each team making it to each round of the ACC Tournament:

Note: The Log5 formula is used to determine each game's win probabilities

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Virginia	100.00%	100.00%	78.72%	54.28%	27.14%
8	Maryland	100.00%	48.61%	10.11%	3.77%	1.89%
9	FSU	100.00%	51.39%	11.17%	4.31%	2.15%
4	North Carolina	100.00%	100.00%	58.47%	23.23%	11.62%
5	Pitt	100.00%	73.72%	35.07%	13.18%	6.59%
12	Wake Forest	44.92%	10.83%	2.43%	0.42%	0.21%
13	Notre Dame	55.08%	15.45%	4.04%	0.81%	0.40%
2	Syracuse	100.00%	100.00%	77.58%	36.83%	18.41%
7	NC St	100.00%	59.31%	14.43%	3.49%	1.75%
10	Miami FL	70.22%	32.67%	7.14%	1.57%	0.78%
15	Va Tech	29.78%	8.03%	0.85%	0.10%	0.05%
3	Duke	100.00%	100.00%	83.53%	53.29%	26.64%
6	Clemson	100.00%	65.42%	12.54%	3.91%	1.96%
11	Ga Tech	58.68%	22.19%	2.80%	0.62%	0.31%
14	Boston College	41.32%	12.39%	1.14%	0.19%	0.10%

Then, these ratings were used in a Monte Carlo simulator that simulated the tournament 10,000 times:

Virginia TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 3086

Syracuse TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 1887

Duke TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 3074

North Carolina TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 935

Pittsburgh TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 508

Clemson TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 108

NC St TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 83

Maryland TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 107

FSU TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 128

Miami FL TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 41

Ga Tech TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 16

Wake Forest TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 8

Notre Dame TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 14

Boston College TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 4

Va Tech TOURNAMENT WIN TOTAL = 1

# of simulations: 10000

Converting these simulations into percentages by dividing each team's number of wins by the number of simulations (10,000):

Virginia TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 30.86%

Syracuse TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 18.87%

Duke TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 30.74%

North Carolina TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 9.35%

Pittsburgh TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 5.08%

Clemson TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 1.08%

NC St TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.83%

Maryland TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 1.07%

FSU TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 1.28%

Miami FL TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.41%

Ga Tech TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.16%

Wake Forest TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.08%

Notre Dame TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.14%

Boston College TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.04%

Va Tech TOURNAMENT WIN PROB = 0.01%

Virginia and Duke are the clear favorites, as was originally indicated by their top 2 ratings. As noted by Ken Pomeroy, seeding has little effect on a team's chances of winning the tournament. This is illustrated here, since both teams' ratings are nearly identical and their chances of winning it all are extremely similar as well.