Thursday, March 13, 2014

ACC Tournament Projections after Day 2

The odds of the favorites (teams with byes) winning the title continue to drop as the favored teams (in this model) in the first two rounds all won (with the lone exception of Wake Forest over Notre Dame). As these teams move into the later rounds, they take away from the byes as their respective chances of winning the title increase.

If Georgia Tech had been able to pull out the OT victory over Clemson, Duke would be the new favorite to win it all, taking yet another ACC Tournament title 27.97% of the time.

It will be interesting to see how things shake up if FSU, NC State, or Clemson can pull off the large upset tomorrow (UNC-Pitt is basically a coin flip).

Day 2SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Virginia100.00%100.00%78.27%53.21%26.61%
8Maryland100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
9FSU100.00%100.00%21.73%8.07%4.03%
4North Carolina100.00%100.00%52.43%20.84%10.42%
5Pitt100.00%100.00%47.57%17.89%8.94%
12Wake Forest100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
13Notre Dame0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Syracuse100.00%100.00%75.67%36.32%18.16%
7NC St100.00%100.00%24.33%5.95%2.98%
10Miami FL100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
15Va Tech0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Duke100.00%100.00%80.84%51.73%25.87%
6Clemson100.00%100.00%19.16%5.99%3.00%
11Ga Tech100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14Boston College0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals128421

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