Sweet 16 by the Aggregate Model

Two rounds in, and we're at the Sweet 16. In my personal bracket I picked Creighton to win it all, and we know how that worked out. I was (un?)lucky enough to see both that and North Carolina's chances end in person, in the same building, in San Antonio. Not the best day.

The Aggregate Model is performing the best out of my three brackets (beating the MDS Model and my personal picks (so long McDermott)), so here are the updated probabilities for each team. Louisville is still the overwhelming favorite. Also, Tennessee at 2%! This is a team that was one of the last ones in to the tournament and they have a 1/50 chance of winning the whole thing!

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
1	Florida	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	64.67%	50.94%	32.23%	16.11%
16*	Albany	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16*	Mount St. Mary's	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Colorado	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	Pittsburgh	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	VCU	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	Stephen F. Austin	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	UCLA	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	35.33%	23.67%	11.53%	4.19%
13	Tulsa	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Ohio St.	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
11	Dayton	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	43.82%	10.00%	2.91%	0.59%
3	Syracuse	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	Western Michigan	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	New Mexico	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
10	Stanford	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	56.18%	15.39%	5.29%	1.30%
2	Kansas	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
15	Eastern Kentucky	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
1	Virginia	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	56.54%	35.92%	19.60%	8.58%
16	Coastal Carolina	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Memphis	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	George Washington	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Cincinnati	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	Harvard	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Michigan St.	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	43.46%	24.87%	12.05%	4.56%
13	Delaware	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	North Carolina	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
11	Providence	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Iowa St.	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	53.47%	21.79%	9.41%	3.11%
14	North Carolina Central	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Connecticut	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	46.53%	17.42%	6.98%	2.11%
10	Saint Joseph's	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Villanova	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
15	Milwaukee	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
1	Arizona	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	70.11%	47.53%	23.13%	13.92%
16	Weber St.	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Gonzaga	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	Oklahoma St.	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Oklahoma	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	North Dakota St.	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	San Diego St.	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	29.89%	14.20%	4.31%	1.72%
13	New Mexico St.	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Baylor	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	39.94%	13.09%	3.61%	1.32%
11	Nebraska	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Creighton	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	Louisiana Lafayette	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Oregon	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
10	BYU	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Wisconsin	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	60.06%	25.18%	8.98%	4.14%
15	American	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
1	Wichita St.	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16*	Cal Poly	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16*	Texas Southern	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Kentucky	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	20.00%	9.19%	3.60%	1.43%
9	Kansas St.	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
5	Saint Louis	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12*	North Carolina St.	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12*	Xavier	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Louisville	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	80.00%	61.78%	43.85%	31.41%
13	Manhattan	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
6	Massachusetts	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
11*	Iowa	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
11*	Tennessee	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	45.04%	12.14%	4.90%	2.01%
3	Duke	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	Mercer	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Texas	100.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
10	Arizona St.	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Michigan	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	54.96%	16.89%	7.61%	3.48%
15	Wofford	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%