Monday, March 24, 2014

Sweet 16 by the Aggregate Model

Two rounds in, and we're at the Sweet 16. In my personal bracket I picked Creighton to win it all, and we know how that worked out. I was (un?)lucky enough to see both that and North Carolina's chances end in person, in the same building, in San Antonio. Not the best day.

The Aggregate Model is performing the best out of my three brackets (beating the MDS Model and my personal picks (so long McDermott)), so here are the updated probabilities for each team. Louisville is still the overwhelming favorite. Also, Tennessee at 2%! This is a team that was one of the last ones in to the tournament and they have a 1/50 chance of winning the whole thing!



SeedTeam1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
1Florida100.00%100.00%100.00%64.67%50.94%32.23%16.11%
16*Albany100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
16*Mount St. Mary's0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Colorado100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
9Pittsburgh100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
5VCU100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
12Stephen F. Austin100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4UCLA100.00%100.00%100.00%35.33%23.67%11.53%4.19%
13Tulsa100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
6Ohio St.100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
11Dayton100.00%100.00%100.00%43.82%10.00%2.91%0.59%
3Syracuse100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14Western Michigan100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
7New Mexico100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
10Stanford100.00%100.00%100.00%56.18%15.39%5.29%1.30%
2Kansas100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
15Eastern Kentucky100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
1Virginia100.00%100.00%100.00%56.54%35.92%19.60%8.58%
16Coastal Carolina100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Memphis100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
9George Washington100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
5Cincinnati100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
12Harvard100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Michigan St.100.00%100.00%100.00%43.46%24.87%12.05%4.56%
13Delaware100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
6North Carolina100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
11Providence100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Iowa St.100.00%100.00%100.00%53.47%21.79%9.41%3.11%
14North Carolina Central100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
7Connecticut100.00%100.00%100.00%46.53%17.42%6.98%2.11%
10Saint Joseph's100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Villanova100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
15Milwaukee100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
1Arizona100.00%100.00%100.00%70.11%47.53%23.13%13.92%
16Weber St.100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Gonzaga100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
9Oklahoma St.100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
5Oklahoma100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
12North Dakota St.100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4San Diego St.100.00%100.00%100.00%29.89%14.20%4.31%1.72%
13New Mexico St.100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
6Baylor100.00%100.00%100.00%39.94%13.09%3.61%1.32%
11Nebraska100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Creighton100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14Louisiana Lafayette100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
7Oregon100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
10BYU100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Wisconsin100.00%100.00%100.00%60.06%25.18%8.98%4.14%
15American100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
1Wichita St.100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
16*Cal Poly100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
16*Texas Southern0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Kentucky100.00%100.00%100.00%20.00%9.19%3.60%1.43%
9Kansas St.100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
5Saint Louis100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
12*North Carolina St.100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
12*Xavier0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Louisville100.00%100.00%100.00%80.00%61.78%43.85%31.41%
13Manhattan100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
6Massachusetts100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
11*Iowa0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
11*Tennessee100.00%100.00%100.00%45.04%12.14%4.90%2.01%
3Duke100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14Mercer100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
7Texas100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
10Arizona St.100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Michigan100.00%100.00%100.00%54.96%16.89%7.61%3.48%
15Wofford100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

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