Modeling MLS, MLB

I’ve finished building the MDS Model for MLS.

The ratings are, as before:

Matrix: A retrodictive rating that calculates a “true” win percentage based only on results (W/D/L, margin of victory is not considered) and the strength of each opponent

Pyth: A predictive rating that’s designed to predict future games, it takes into account an adjusted score for each game based on the strength of each opponent (from the Matrix model)

Comp: A composite of the two ratings to rank the teams

SOS: Strength of schedule

The MDS Model actually lines up pretty closely with that of Jeff Sagarin, USA Today’s statistician. 

Even though the San Jose Earthquakes haven’t gotten a win yet, they’re ranked higher than their record indicates (10th overall in my model) thanks to the 2nd highest SOS in MLS so far (also according to my model).

I also finished the MLS Model for MLB as well.