I adapted my Monte Carlo simulator (not very efficiently, it took about 1,500 lines of code) to simulate this year’s World Cup 10,000 times. Its input was ESPN’s Soccer Power Index.
Below are the results, including the average points each team earned in the group stage, percentage placing 1st in group, placing 2nd in group, (and advancing out of the group, which is simply these 2 numbers added together), advancing to the quarterfinals, semifinals, final, and winning the entire tournament.
| Country | SPI Rating | Avg Points (Group) | 1st in Group | 2nd in Group | Advancing | Quarters | Semis | Final | Champion |
| Brazil | 91.9 | 7.58 | 88.07% | 9.57% | 97.64% | 64.30% | 44.27% | 30.50% | 20.10% |
| Mexico | 76.5 | 3.35 | 4.94% | 43.51% | 48.45% | 15.77% | 6.54% | 2.48% | 0.82% |
| Croatia | 75.2 | 3.22 | 4.25% | 28.70% | 32.95% | 10.68% | 4.17% | 1.56% | 0.51% |
| Cameroon | 71.0 | 2.66 | 2.74% | 18.22% | 20.96% | 5.56% | 2.00% | 0.64% | 0.15% |
| Spain | 89.3 | 5.51 | 51.82% | 27.36% | 79.18% | 49.19% | 31.58% | 19.51% | 10.66% |
| Chile | 87.3 | 5.01 | 30.38% | 39.14% | 69.52% | 35.29% | 21.03% | 12.01% | 6.21% |
| Netherlands | 82.1 | 3.90 | 14.27% | 24.26% | 38.53% | 15.72% | 7.96% | 3.39% | 1.39% |
| Australia | 69.9 | 2.17 | 3.53% | 9.24% | 12.77% | 3.49% | 1.06% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| Colombia | 86.1 | 5.50 | 54.87% | 24.64% | 79.51% | 46.02% | 20.94% | 11.25% | 5.49% |
| Ivory Coast | 79.3 | 4.17 | 21.47% | 34.23% | 55.70% | 25.39% | 9.54% | 3.90% | 1.42% |
| Greece | 76.0 | 3.63 | 14.19% | 23.84% | 38.03% | 15.55% | 5.17% | 1.93% | 0.53% |
| Japan | 72.4 | 3.18 | 9.47% | 17.29% | 26.76% | 9.77% | 3.03% | 0.94% | 0.25% |
| Uruguay | 84.1 | 4.62 | 39.51% | 26.14% | 65.65% | 36.95% | 16.52% | 8.05% | 3.66% |
| England | 83.2 | 4.50 | 29.45% | 31.08% | 60.53% | 32.23% | 13.61% | 6.38% | 2.84% |
| Italy | 81.0 | 4.01 | 19.98% | 24.68% | 44.66% | 22.25% | 8.61% | 3.96% | 1.65% |
| Costa Rica | 76.7 | 3.32 | 11.06% | 18.10% | 29.16% | 11.84% | 3.97% | 1.64% | 0.65% |
| France | 85.3 | 5.13 | 47.72% | 26.36% | 74.08% | 39.92% | 22.05% | 10.14% | 4.96% |
| Ecuador | 82.2 | 4.53 | 27.96% | 33.41% | 61.37% | 28.18% | 14.22% | 6.07% | 2.41% |
| Switzerland | 77.4 | 3.70 | 14.83% | 23.30% | 38.13% | 15.46% | 7.03% | 2.56% | 0.93% |
| Honduras | 73.4 | 3.12 | 9.49% | 16.93% | 26.42% | 8.59% | 3.46% | 1.11% | 0.36% |
| Argentina | 90.3 | 6.32 | 67.82% | 20.80% | 88.62% | 60.01% | 40.70% | 24.86% | 14.33% |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 79.5 | 4.07 | 17.15% | 39.48% | 56.63% | 26.35% | 12.03% | 4.13% | 1.52% |
| Nigeria | 75.7 | 3.41 | 9.56% | 24.00% | 33.56% | 14.18% | 5.66% | 1.93% | 0.59% |
| Iran | 70.8 | 2.81 | 5.47% | 15.72% | 21.19% | 7.31% | 2.46% | 0.57% | 0.18% |
| Germany | 88.7 | 5.80 | 59.64% | 23.36% | 83.00% | 58.47% | 36.08% | 19.11% | 10.72% |
| Portugal | 79.6 | 3.88 | 17.39% | 33.67% | 51.06% | 27.04% | 11.00% | 4.63% | 1.69% |
| United States | 77.6 | 3.53 | 13.33% | 23.64% | 36.97% | 18.59% | 7.61% | 2.51% | 0.77% |
| Ghana | 76.2 | 3.31 | 9.64% | 19.33% | 28.97% | 13.89% | 5.41% | 1.93% | 0.65% |
| Belgium | 80.5 | 5.11 | 45.86% | 27.39% | 73.25% | 33.72% | 14.66% | 5.82% | 2.35% |
| Russia | 78.8 | 4.79 | 31.35% | 34.05% | 65.40% | 27.94% | 10.92% | 4.25% | 1.61% |
| South Korea | 73.5 | 3.97 | 16.45% | 26.17% | 42.62% | 15.29% | 5.42% | 1.69% | 0.49% |
| Algeria | 62.7 | 2.65 | 6.34% | 12.39% | 18.73% | 5.06% | 1.29% | 0.19% | 0.02% |
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