Sunday, July 27, 2014

Preseason NCAAF Ratings/Rankings

Since player turnover is very high season to season at the college level, I wanted to create a set of preseason ratings for NCAAF that wasn't simply the end of season ratings from 2013, but instead factored in returning starters on each team, etc. To do so, I used the final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as a base, and then also involved ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team.

I simply averaged the FPI and S&P+, and then calculated how many standard deviations above or below average each team rated. Then, I compared these figures with my MDS Composite ratings (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and adjusted the base rating up or down. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.


*Note: The MDS Model is only available for FBS teams, and this year 3 teams will make the move up from FCS: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Old Dominion. These teams' ratings are only the combination of the FPI and S&P+.


RankTeamPRESEASON
1FSU0.948
2Alabama0.871
3Auburn0.796
4Oregon0.795
5Baylor0.783
6Ohio St0.780
7Stanford0.777
8Mich St0.757
9So Car0.752
10Clemson0.736
11Okla St0.735
12Oklahoma0.733
13Wisconsin0.725
14Arizona St0.723
15LSU0.719
16Texas A&M0.719
17Georgia0.718
18Louisville0.717
19Missouri0.714
20UCLA0.712
21USC0.696
22UCF0.667
23Michigan0.659
24Wash0.658
25Va Tech0.651
26BYU0.648
27Ole Miss0.646
28Notre Dame0.645
29Iowa0.635
30Houston0.634
31Miami (FL)0.625
32Kansas St0.622
33Miss St0.617
34Arizona0.615
35Texas0.611
36UNC0.606
37Boise St0.600
38BGSU0.593
39Ga Tech0.591
40Fresno St0.590
41Florida0.584
42Duke0.582
43N Illinois0.579
44Oregon St0.573
45Penn St0.571
46Nebraska0.568
47Marshall0.567
48Texas Tech0.567
49Pitt0.563
50Cin0.548
51Utah0.548
52TCU0.547
53Utah St0.545
54ECU0.544
55Indiana0.540
56Toledo0.529
57Minn0.527
58Navy0.526
59Vandy0.522
60N Texas0.518
61Tenn0.507
62Wash St0.503
63Maryland0.502
64Ball St0.498
65Rice0.496
66Northwestern0.494
67UTSA0.478
68La Laf0.474
69S Alabama0.468
70BC0.468
71Syracuse0.465
72Arkansas0.458
73Tulane0.455
74Rutgers0.454
75WVU0.447
76Buffalo0.446
77SJSU0.445
78Illinois0.442
79SDSU0.440
80W Kent0.434
81Nevada0.423
82NC St0.423
83Iowa St0.415
84Colorado St0.411
85FAU0.408
86Arkansas St0.405
87MTSU0.405
88Virginia0.404
89UNLV0.400
90Kent0.395
91SMU0.393
92Memphis0.390
93Tulsa0.387
94Wake Forest0.375
95Troy0.370
96Colorado0.366
97Temple0.366
98Ohio0.365
99Kent St0.363
100Conn0.363
101S Florida0.362
102Cal0.362
103C Mich0.353
104Akron0.345
105La Monroe0.337
106Old Dom*0.336
107Hawaii0.331
108Texas St0.327
109Kansas0.324
110Wyoming0.323
111New Mex0.306
112Army0.287
113Air Force0.284
114Purdue0.283
115La Tech0.271
116UAB0.256
117W Mich0.243
118UTEP0.241
119So Miss0.232
120Idaho0.227
121E Mich0.211
122App St*0.194
123Georgia St0.190
124FIU0.190
125Ga Southern*0.189
126New Mex St0.185
127Mass0.180
128Miami (OH)0.172

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