Preseason NCAAF Ratings/Rankings

Since player turnover is very high season to season at the college level, I wanted to create a set of preseason ratings for NCAAF that wasn't simply the end of season ratings from 2013, but instead factored in returning starters on each team, etc. To do so, I used the final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as a base, and then also involved ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team.

I simply averaged the FPI and S&P+, and then calculated how many standard deviations above or below average each team rated. Then, I compared these figures with my MDS Composite ratings (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and adjusted the base rating up or down. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.


*Note: The MDS Model is only available for FBS teams, and this year 3 teams will make the move up from FCS: Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Old Dominion. These teams' ratings are only the combination of the FPI and S&P+.

Rank	Team	PRESEASON
1	FSU	0.948
2	Alabama	0.871
3	Auburn	0.796
4	Oregon	0.795
5	Baylor	0.783
6	Ohio St	0.780
7	Stanford	0.777
8	Mich St	0.757
9	So Car	0.752
10	Clemson	0.736
11	Okla St	0.735
12	Oklahoma	0.733
13	Wisconsin	0.725
14	Arizona St	0.723
15	LSU	0.719
16	Texas A&M	0.719
17	Georgia	0.718
18	Louisville	0.717
19	Missouri	0.714
20	UCLA	0.712
21	USC	0.696
22	UCF	0.667
23	Michigan	0.659
24	Wash	0.658
25	Va Tech	0.651
26	BYU	0.648
27	Ole Miss	0.646
28	Notre Dame	0.645
29	Iowa	0.635
30	Houston	0.634
31	Miami (FL)	0.625
32	Kansas St	0.622
33	Miss St	0.617
34	Arizona	0.615
35	Texas	0.611
36	UNC	0.606
37	Boise St	0.600
38	BGSU	0.593
39	Ga Tech	0.591
40	Fresno St	0.590
41	Florida	0.584
42	Duke	0.582
43	N Illinois	0.579
44	Oregon St	0.573
45	Penn St	0.571
46	Nebraska	0.568
47	Marshall	0.567
48	Texas Tech	0.567
49	Pitt	0.563
50	Cin	0.548
51	Utah	0.548
52	TCU	0.547
53	Utah St	0.545
54	ECU	0.544
55	Indiana	0.540
56	Toledo	0.529
57	Minn	0.527
58	Navy	0.526
59	Vandy	0.522
60	N Texas	0.518
61	Tenn	0.507
62	Wash St	0.503
63	Maryland	0.502
64	Ball St	0.498
65	Rice	0.496
66	Northwestern	0.494
67	UTSA	0.478
68	La Laf	0.474
69	S Alabama	0.468
70	BC	0.468
71	Syracuse	0.465
72	Arkansas	0.458
73	Tulane	0.455
74	Rutgers	0.454
75	WVU	0.447
76	Buffalo	0.446
77	SJSU	0.445
78	Illinois	0.442
79	SDSU	0.440
80	W Kent	0.434
81	Nevada	0.423
82	NC St	0.423
83	Iowa St	0.415
84	Colorado St	0.411
85	FAU	0.408
86	Arkansas St	0.405
87	MTSU	0.405
88	Virginia	0.404
89	UNLV	0.400
90	Kent	0.395
91	SMU	0.393
92	Memphis	0.390
93	Tulsa	0.387
94	Wake Forest	0.375
95	Troy	0.370
96	Colorado	0.366
97	Temple	0.366
98	Ohio	0.365
99	Kent St	0.363
100	Conn	0.363
101	S Florida	0.362
102	Cal	0.362
103	C Mich	0.353
104	Akron	0.345
105	La Monroe	0.337
106	Old Dom*	0.336
107	Hawaii	0.331
108	Texas St	0.327
109	Kansas	0.324
110	Wyoming	0.323
111	New Mex	0.306
112	Army	0.287
113	Air Force	0.284
114	Purdue	0.283
115	La Tech	0.271
116	UAB	0.256
117	W Mich	0.243
118	UTEP	0.241
119	So Miss	0.232
120	Idaho	0.227
121	E Mich	0.211
122	App St*	0.194
123	Georgia St	0.190
124	FIU	0.190
125	Ga Southern*	0.189
126	New Mex St	0.185
127	Mass	0.180
128	Miami (OH)	0.172