This year's MLB postseason is full of inconsistency in how things could play out (per the Pyth component of the MDS Model):
- Oakland is the best team but has the 4th best chance of winning it all
- Across the board the AL is stronger, and the AL teams combine to win the World Series 58.78% of the time AND have home-field advantage... but Washington is the single most likely team to win it all because they only have to play an AL team once: in the World Series
- The Los Angeles Angels are better than the Baltimore Orioles AND have home-field but are less likely to make it to the World Series because both Kansas City and Oakland are stronger than Detroit
- Pittsburgh has to get out of the one game Wild Card playoff, yet is more likely to win the World Series than the team they lost the NL Central to, St. Louis
- Using the straight rankings (and factoring in home-field) predicts a different bracket than the straight probabilities
Round-by-round probabilities:
| AL | ALDS | ALCS | WS | Champ | |
| 1 | LAA | 100.00% | 51.85% | 29.08% | 17.57% |
| 4 | KC | 45.93% | 18.39% | 8.05% | 4.04% |
| 5 | OAK | 54.07% | 29.76% | 18.17% | 12.19% |
| 2 | BAL | 100.00% | 61.41% | 30.16% | 17.98% |
| 3 | DET | 100.00% | 38.59% | 14.55% | 7.00% |
| NL | NLDS | NLCS | WS | Champ | |
| 1 | WSH | 100.00% | 59.84% | 37.66% | 18.04% |
| 4 | PIT | 56.87% | 24.13% | 12.93% | 5.29% |
| 5 | SF | 43.13% | 16.03% | 7.58% | 2.65% |
| 2 | LAD | 100.00% | 57.76% | 25.89% | 10.17% |
| 3 | STL | 100.00% | 42.24% | 15.95% | 5.06% |
Ratings of playoff teams:
| Rank | Pyth | |
| 1 | OAK | 0.614 |
| 2 | LAA | 0.580 |
| 3 | BAL | 0.578 |
| 4 | WSH | 0.570 |
| 6 | PIT | 0.538 |
| 7 | KC | 0.535 |
| 8 | LAD | 0.530 |
| 10 | DET | 0.525 |
| 12 | SF | 0.509 |
| 15 | STL | 0.496 |
No comments:
Post a Comment