Monday, December 29, 2014

NFL Playoff Picks 2014-15

The NFL Playoffs start this weekend, and the top seeds (NE, DEN, SEA, and GB) are appropriate (representing 4 of the top 5 teams in Pyth (the lone missing team being Kansas City, who disappointingly didn't make the playoffs)), and these teams are heavily favored.




A couple of wrinkles in the following probabilities:

  1. The NFL bracket is reseeded after each round, and this is accounted for.
  2. Arizona would also play at home if they make it to this year's Super Bowl, and would be the first team in NFL history to do so. This is also included: they are given the standard home-field advantage of 3 points in the final game.
  3. As you can see, NE, DEN, SEA, and GB are waaaaaaay ahead of the field, and win the Super Bowl a whopping 90.52% of the time.

AFCWild Card2nd RoundAFCSB
1NE100.00%74.49%52.69%28.60%
4IND63.83%13.67%4.00%1.28%
5CIN36.17%11.84%3.21%0.96%
2DEN100.00%74.03%32.16%15.06%
3PIT57.63%15.87%4.52%1.59%
6BAL42.37%10.11%3.43%1.32%
NFCWild Card2nd RoundNFCSB
1SEA100.00%86.23%66.40%37.98%
4CAR47.45%5.79%1.21%0.25%
5ARI52.55%7.98%2.52%1.05%
2GB100.00%68.27%21.49%8.87%
3DAL71.16%24.96%7.14%2.69%
6DET28.84%6.76%1.24%0.35%

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