Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Final Four Probabilities

The Final Four is finally here, and it is stacked. This is where things really get interesting for Kentucky:

SeedTeamChampionshipChampion
1Kentucky66.24%53.81%
1Wisconsin33.76%23.32%
7Michigan St.31.97%4.72%
1Duke68.03%18.15%

They're still the outright favorite against the rest of the field. However, 53.81% doesn't justify the -150 odds (implied 60% probability) they're currently pegged at to win it all.

And remember, last year Florida was  fairly close to 50% going into the Final Four. So of course they promptly lost the semifinal to the eventual champion, Connecticut. It's why you play the games. Personally, I think Kentucky does it: go 40-0.

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