Final Four Probabilities

The Final Four is finally here, and it is stacked. This is where things really get interesting for Kentucky:

Seed	Team	Championship	Champion
1	Kentucky	66.24%	53.81%
1	Wisconsin	33.76%	23.32%
7	Michigan St.	31.97%	4.72%
1	Duke	68.03%	18.15%

They're still the outright favorite against the rest of the field. However, 53.81% doesn't justify the -150 odds (implied 60% probability) they're currently pegged at to win it all.

And remember, last year Florida was  fairly close to 50% going into the Final Four. So of course they promptly lost the semifinal to the eventual champion, Connecticut. It's why you play the games. Personally, I think Kentucky does it: go 40-0.