The SJ Giants' Recent Win Streak

Continuing the recent theme of "unlikely things to happen to the San Jose Giants since I started working there": prior to my first game of the season, the Giants were 12-26, sitting firmly in last place, with a win percentage of 0.316. Since then, they've gone 5-0, and I've yet to witness a loss this season.

Just how unlikely was this win streak? By using the win-loss records of the Giants and their next two opponents (the Modesto Nuts and the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes) prior to the 5-game win streak, and then calculating the standard Log5 formula to estimate "the probability that team A will win (the) game" for each game, I determined this likelihood directly:

Opponent	Modesto			R. Cucamonga
Game	Win G1	Win G2	Win G3	Win G4	Win G5
Game Prob	29.35%	29.35%	29.35%	20.00%	20.00%
Cumulative Prob	29.35%	8.61%	2.53%	0.51%	0.10%

So prior to this homestand, the Giants had a 0.10% chance of winning every one of those 5 games. They now sit a half game out of 4th place, and we'll see if the good luck continues.