Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2015

As I did last year, I've created a new set of preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes. As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.



In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to the average of last year's end-of-season Composite ratings. Charlotte is new to FBS this year, so their rating is only the combination of the FPI and S&P+. As I was doing these calculations, I kept wondering why my formulas lined up from last year, since there's an additional team. Then I remembered what happened to UAB...

Rank	Team	PRESEASON	Trend
1	Ohio State	0.881	DOWN
2	Alabama	0.854	UP
3	Oregon	0.828	DOWN
4	TCU	0.815	DOWN
5	Georgia	0.806	UP
6	Ole Miss	0.788	UP
7	Michigan State	0.782	DOWN
8	Baylor	0.778	UP
9	UCLA	0.760	UP
10	USC	0.740	UP
11	Arkansas	0.739	UP
12	Auburn	0.739	UP
13	Florida State	0.735	DOWN
14	Clemson	0.735	DOWN
15	LSU	0.732	UP
16	Georgia Tech	0.730	DOWN
17	Stanford	0.722	UP
18	Oklahoma	0.711	UP
19	Mississippi State	0.711	DOWN
20	Boise State	0.708	DOWN
21	Wisconsin	0.701	DOWN
22	Arizona State	0.695	UP
23	Missouri	0.693	DOWN
24	Marshall	0.691	DOWN
25	Texas A&M	0.683	UP
26	Notre Dame	0.683	UP
27	Tennessee	0.673	UP
28	Arizona	0.662	DOWN
29	Kansas State	0.661	DOWN
30	Nebraska	0.649	DOWN
31	Virginia Tech	0.646	UP
32	Florida	0.646	UP
33	Utah	0.639	DOWN
34	Louisville	0.636	DOWN
35	Miami (FL)	0.628	UP
36	West Virginia	0.617	UP
37	Louisiana Tech	0.612	DOWN
38	Penn State	0.597	UP
39	South Carolina	0.595	UP
40	Brigham Young	0.589	DOWN
41	Cincinnati	0.580	DOWN
42	Memphis	0.579	DOWN
43	North Carolina State	0.579	UP
44	Michigan	0.577	UP
45	Minnesota	0.576	DOWN
46	Pittsburgh	0.560	UP
47	Duke	0.553	DOWN
48	Texas	0.553	UP
49	Utah State	0.552	DOWN
50	Boston College	0.547	DOWN
51	Oklahoma State	0.546	UP
52	North Carolina	0.544	UP
53	Georgia Southern	0.534	DOWN
54	California	0.529	UP
55	Western Kentucky	0.529	DOWN
56	Washington	0.527	DOWN
57	Navy	0.526	DOWN
58	UCF	0.525	DOWN
59	Virginia	0.516	UP
60	Kentucky	0.506	UP
61	Toledo	0.505	DOWN
62	Iowa	0.505	DOWN
63	Northern Illinois	0.504	DOWN
64	Colorado State	0.502	DOWN
65	Western Michigan	0.502	DOWN
66	Air Force	0.496	DOWN
67	East Carolina	0.489	DOWN
68	Temple	0.488	UP
69	Maryland	0.486	DOWN
70	Northwestern	0.476	UP
71	Houston	0.472	DOWN
72	Texas Tech	0.470	UP
73	Arkansas State	0.469	UP
74	Illinois	0.468	UP
75	San Diego State	0.465	DOWN
76	Rutgers	0.463	DOWN
77	Washington State	0.457	UP
78	Middle Tennessee	0.448	DOWN
79	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.436	DOWN
80	Appalachian State	0.431	DOWN
81	Oregon State	0.430	UP
82	Colorado	0.423	UP
83	Rice	0.420	DOWN
84	Indiana	0.418	UP
85	Purdue	0.415	UP
86	Central Michigan	0.406	DOWN
87	Ball State	0.400	DOWN
88	Syracuse	0.390	UP
89	Texas State	0.388	DOWN
90	Bowling Green	0.384	DOWN
91	Old Dominion	0.378	DOWN
92	UTEP	0.372	DOWN
93	Nevada	0.371	UP
94	Vanderbilt	0.370	UP
95	Ohio	0.366	UP
96	Fresno State	0.364	DOWN
97	Iowa State	0.364	UP
98	New Mexico	0.363	DOWN
99	Florida International	0.356	DOWN
100	Wake Forest	0.337	UP
101	South Alabama	0.332	DOWN
102	Louisiana-Monroe	0.324	UP
103	Florida Atlantic	0.316	UP
104	San Jose State	0.315	UP
105	Tulane	0.315	UP
106	South Florida	0.307	UP
107	Southern Miss	0.304	UP
108	Tulsa	0.303	UP
109	Akron	0.300	DOWN
110	Kansas	0.298	UP
111	Wyoming	0.297	DOWN
112	Hawaii	0.297	DOWN
113	Kent State	0.292	UP
114	UTSA	0.290	DOWN
115	Massachusetts	0.288	UP
116	Miami (OH)	0.287	DOWN
117	Buffalo	0.284	DOWN
118	North Texas	0.276	DOWN
119	Connecticut	0.245	UP
120	Idaho	0.242	DOWN
121	Georgia State	0.234	UP
122	Army	0.231	DOWN
123	UNLV	0.229	DOWN
124	Troy	0.225	UP
125	Southern Methodist	0.221	UP
126	New Mexico State	0.220	UP
127	Charlotte*	0.214	N/A
128	Eastern Michigan	0.163	DOWN
129	UAB	0.000	RIP