Saturday, August 27, 2016

Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2016

As I did last year and the year before, I've created a new set of preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes. The following is literally copied and pasted from last year's write-up so you don't have to click that first link:

 As before, I used my final Composite ratings from the MDS Model (from last season) as the base (which takes into account both a forward-looking predictive component and a past-performance only retrodictive component), and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections, both of which take into account player changes on each team. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.

In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to the average of last year's end-of-season Composite ratings. I know this is a day late, so the Hawaii and Cal game is not yet included (these are purely preseason ratings).




RankTeamPRESEASONTrend
1Alabama0.874UP
2Clemson0.845UP
3Oklahoma0.845UP
4Florida State0.795UP
5Ohio State0.788DOWN
6LSU0.777UP
7Michigan0.765UP
8Ole Miss0.763UP
9Tennessee0.742UP
10Stanford0.740DOWN
11Notre Dame0.738DOWN
12USC0.736UP
13Michigan State0.727DOWN
14Oklahoma State0.700UP
15North Carolina0.697DOWN
16Florida0.697UP
17Washington0.693UP
18UCLA0.691UP
19Baylor0.691UP
20TCU0.690DOWN
21Iowa0.675DOWN
22Oregon0.673UP
23Georgia0.669UP
24Arkansas0.669UP
25Mississippi State0.661UP
26Houston0.647DOWN
27Wisconsin0.644DOWN
28Texas A&M0.644UP
29Utah0.644DOWN
30Louisville0.639UP
31Pittsburgh0.634UP
32Western Kentucky0.628DOWN
33West Virginia0.624UP
34Brigham Young0.621DOWN
35Nebraska0.616UP
36Boise State0.615UP
37Navy0.613DOWN
38Penn State0.611UP
39South Florida0.610DOWN
40Appalachian State0.604DOWN
41Auburn0.595UP
42Temple0.595DOWN
43Miami (FL)0.592UP
44Washington State0.592DOWN
45San Diego State0.588DOWN
46North Carolina State0.584DOWN
47Northwestern0.583DOWN
48Toledo0.580DOWN
49California0.579DOWN
50Bowling Green0.578DOWN
51Memphis0.577DOWN
52Texas0.564UP
53Texas Tech0.564UP
54Virginia Tech0.551UP
55Arizona State0.547UP
56Western Michigan0.544DOWN
57Cincinnati0.542DOWN
58Marshall0.541DOWN
59Southern Miss0.533DOWN
60Minnesota0.524UP
61Arizona0.524UP
62Air Force0.516DOWN
63Georgia Southern0.512DOWN
64Duke0.511UP
65Georgia Tech0.507UP
66Kansas State0.495UP
67Arkansas State0.491DOWN
68Central Michigan0.491DOWN
69Indiana0.489UP
70Northern Illinois0.487DOWN
71Utah State0.482DOWN
72Louisiana Tech0.482DOWN
73Missouri0.473UP
74Syracuse0.471UP
75South Carolina0.462UP
76Vanderbilt0.452UP
77Illinois0.451UP
78Virginia0.446UP
79Middle Tennessee0.444DOWN
80Tulsa0.441DOWN
81Boston College0.439UP
82Maryland0.437UP
83Iowa State0.433UP
84Colorado0.430UP
85Ohio0.428DOWN
86East Carolina0.427DOWN
87Connecticut0.426UP
88Wake Forest0.413UP
89Kentucky0.407UP
90Purdue0.403UP
91Nevada0.398UP
92Rutgers0.393UP
93New Mexico0.393DOWN
94San Jose State0.392UP
95Colorado State0.389DOWN
96Georgia State0.376DOWN
97Troy0.365DOWN
98Akron0.360DOWN
99Oregon State0.356UP
100Florida Atlantic0.342DOWN
101Southern Methodist0.341UP
102Buffalo0.341DOWN
103Ball State0.312UP
104Louisiana-Lafayette0.307DOWN
105Florida International0.300DOWN
106Old Dominion0.296UP
107Fresno State0.296UP
108Idaho0.293DOWN
109South Alabama0.288DOWN
110UNLV0.288UP
111Wyoming0.276UP
112Massachusetts0.275DOWN
113Kent State0.275UP
114Rice0.269DOWN
115Miami (OH)0.265UP
116UTSA0.260DOWN
117New Mexico State0.258DOWN
118Texas State0.253DOWN
119UCF0.253UP
120UTEP0.238DOWN
121Kansas0.235UP
122Eastern Michigan0.229UP
123Hawaii0.221UP
124Army0.220UP
125Tulane0.215DOWN
126Louisiana-Monroe0.194DOWN
127Charlotte0.189UP
128North Texas0.187DOWN

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