Monday, March 20, 2017

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model

Quite a bit shook out over the past weekend, yet we're still left with a high level of parity in the remaining 16 teams:


SeedTeam1st RoundElite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
Sweet 16
8Wisconsin100.00%51.21%29.65%13.03%5.71%
4Florida100.00%48.79%27.69%11.84%5.05%
3Baylor100.00%65.92%31.66%13.13%5.43%
7South Carolina100.00%34.08%11.00%2.95%0.79%
1Gonzaga100.00%59.33%39.51%26.44%15.35%
4West Virginia100.00%40.67%23.48%13.64%6.65%
11Xavier100.00%37.86%11.33%4.85%1.64%
2Arizona100.00%62.14%25.68%14.11%6.44%
1Kansas100.00%59.63%36.63%19.74%11.30%
4Purdue100.00%40.37%20.97%9.29%4.44%
3Oregon100.00%61.03%28.44%13.27%6.65%
7Michigan100.00%38.97%13.96%5.02%1.97%
1North Carolina100.00%67.95%36.44%20.53%11.71%
4Butler100.00%32.05%11.40%4.35%1.70%
3UCLA100.00%38.31%17.26%7.85%3.63%
2Kentucky100.00%61.69%34.90%19.95%11.54%

There are 4 teams with a double-digit chance to take the trophy home, and the highest, Gonzaga, is barely over 15%. This is definitely the most wide-open year since 2014, when Connecticut (a 7-seed) beat Kentucky (an 8-seed) in the championship game.

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