Wednesday, May 31, 2017

LeBron vs Jordan, Supporting Casts and Finals Opponents

In the ongoing GOAT conversation between LeBron and MJ, LeBron has frequently been lambasted for changing teams to go to greener pastures with better (and younger) teammates when he couldn't get the job done with his current team. The argument goes that Jordan never left the Bulls (except for that one year he retired to play baseball/serve David Stern's secret suspension for gambling) and won his titles with the players around him. Thing is, those players were pretty good, including two future Hall of Famers. So how did Jordan's counterparts stack up with LeBron's?

I took every season in which either player made the NBA Finals and compared the other starters' average PER on each team, the top two units' average PER (starters and top five bench players), and each star's PER in each season.


Jordan
SeasonWon TitleStartersTop 2 UnitsPER
1990-91Y16.4015.0531.6
1991-92Y17.7315.5927.7
1992-93Y16.9214.6329.7
1995-96Y17.8815.7729.4
1996-97Y16.8616.0727.8
1997-98Y15.3214.7125.2
Average16.8515.3028.57



LeBron
SeasonWon TitleStartersTop 2 UnitsPER
2006-07N15.1213.3324.5
2010-11*N18.2915.1427.3
2011-12Y17.2713.9330.7
2012-13Y18.3214.9431.6
2013-14N13.9814.7729.3
2014-15*N18.1315.9125.9
2015-16Y15.6514.2627.5
2016-17?17.3914.6827
Average16.7714.6227.98
Y17.0814.3829.93
N16.3814.7926.75
*First season on a new team; 2010-11: Miami Heat, 2014-15: Cleveland Cavaliers

The other starting teammates for both LeBron and Jordan were actually fairly comparable on average, but Jordan did have a larger advantage with his bench unit. The gripes with LeBron are accurate though: in both seasons prior to when he left his respective teams in free agency, his teammates were remarkably worse than who he had on his next team. That being said, Jordan never had a situation as bad as LeBron's until his last title in 97-98, so he arguably never had an incentive to jump ship like LeBron did.

Not surprisingly, LeBron's teammates were better in the years he won the title than in the years he didn't, on average. There's a point and counterpoint here though: the "Didn't Win Title" distribution is very bi-modal. In his last seasons with the Cavs and Heat, his starting teammates' average PER was 15.12 and 13.98, respectively. But in his ensuing first seasons with the Heat and Cavs, his starting teammates' average PER was 18.29 and 18.13, respectively, and they didn't win the title in either of those seasons.

The point I've failed to bring up yet is that none of these numbers exist in a vacuum. Upon reaching the Finals, Jordan faced an arguably lighter set of competition. So I looked at the NBA Finals opponents' starters' average PER to gauge the quality of each year's competition.


Jordan
SeasonWon TitleOpponent Starters
1990-91Y18.18
1991-92Y16.68
1992-93Y18.06
1995-96Y18.36
1996-97Y20.41
1997-98Y19.87
Average18.59

LeBron
SeasonWon TitleOpponent Starters
2006-07N18.73
2010-11*N17.76
2011-12Y20.31
2012-13Y19.37
2013-14N17.79
2014-15*N18.55
2015-16Y19.68
2016-17?20.10
Average19.04
Y19.79
N18.21
LeBron has faced stiffer competition in the Finals, and the irony is that in his title-winning seasons he actually beat the better teams, on average. His vanquished Finals foes were much better than Jordan's were.

So what can we conclude from this? LeBron did indeed leave when his teammates were weaker, which is a fair criticism when comparing him to Jordan. The thing is, Jordan never had to leave because his teammates were good enough already. And while LeBron is 3-4 in the Finals so far (with 1 pending), he's already been to 8 (and 7 in the last 7 years!!!), whereas Jordan went to 6 and went 6-0 against weaker competition.

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