Monday, March 19, 2018

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2018)

A bunch of upsets on the left side of the bracket has left the field with 2 favorites well above the rest: Villanova and Duke. Both team's individual chances are limited by the fact that they likely will have to play each other (but combined they win it almost 37% of the time).



SeedTeam1st RoundElite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
Sweet 16
9Kansas St.100.00%37.11%17.31%6.13%1.59%
5Kentucky100.00%62.89%37.50%18.01%6.74%
11Loyola-Chicago100.00%43.46%18.06%6.34%1.63%
7Nevada100.00%56.54%27.13%11.20%3.49%
9Florida St.100.00%33.69%13.50%6.34%1.83%
4Gonzaga100.00%66.31%37.48%23.73%10.48%
3Michigan100.00%62.38%33.46%20.58%8.71%
7Texas A&M100.00%37.62%15.57%7.66%2.36%
1Villanova100.00%66.88%42.22%26.06%18.51%
5West Virginia100.00%33.12%15.25%6.86%3.77%
3Texas Tech100.00%40.98%15.32%6.69%3.59%
2Purdue100.00%59.02%27.21%14.27%8.90%
1Kansas100.00%60.15%28.01%12.29%7.11%
5Clemson100.00%39.85%14.79%5.06%2.42%
11Syracuse100.00%20.18%6.38%1.49%0.53%
2Duke100.00%79.82%50.83%27.28%18.33%

Another wrinkle, as illustrated above, is that Duke has the best chance of making the championship game, yet a lower chance of actually winning it. Playing Syracuse in the Sweet 16 greatly elevates their odds of getting there, but Villanova is still the better team, and thus has the stronger chance over all.

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