A bunch of upsets on the left side of the bracket has left the field with 2 favorites well above the rest: Villanova and Duke. Both team's individual chances are limited by the fact that they likely will have to play each other (but combined they win it almost 37% of the time).
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| Sweet 16 | | | | | |
| 9 | Kansas St. | 100.00% | 37.11% | 17.31% | 6.13% | 1.59% |
| 5 | Kentucky | 100.00% | 62.89% | 37.50% | 18.01% | 6.74% |
| 11 | Loyola-Chicago | 100.00% | 43.46% | 18.06% | 6.34% | 1.63% |
| 7 | Nevada | 100.00% | 56.54% | 27.13% | 11.20% | 3.49% |
| 9 | Florida St. | 100.00% | 33.69% | 13.50% | 6.34% | 1.83% |
| 4 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 66.31% | 37.48% | 23.73% | 10.48% |
| 3 | Michigan | 100.00% | 62.38% | 33.46% | 20.58% | 8.71% |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 100.00% | 37.62% | 15.57% | 7.66% | 2.36% |
| 1 | Villanova | 100.00% | 66.88% | 42.22% | 26.06% | 18.51% |
| 5 | West Virginia | 100.00% | 33.12% | 15.25% | 6.86% | 3.77% |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 100.00% | 40.98% | 15.32% | 6.69% | 3.59% |
| 2 | Purdue | 100.00% | 59.02% | 27.21% | 14.27% | 8.90% |
| 1 | Kansas | 100.00% | 60.15% | 28.01% | 12.29% | 7.11% |
| 5 | Clemson | 100.00% | 39.85% | 14.79% | 5.06% | 2.42% |
| 11 | Syracuse | 100.00% | 20.18% | 6.38% | 1.49% | 0.53% |
| 2 | Duke | 100.00% | 79.82% | 50.83% | 27.28% | 18.33% |
Another wrinkle, as illustrated above, is that Duke has the best chance of making the championship game, yet a lower chance of actually winning it. Playing Syracuse in the Sweet 16 greatly elevates their odds of getting there, but Villanova is still the better team, and thus has the stronger chance over all.
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