Simulating the 2018 Knockout Rounds of the World Cup

As I did before, I've taken a composite of 4 different rating systems to create my "MDS Ratings" to project the knockout rounds of the World Cup. I'm then running this rating system back through my World Cup simulator 10,000 times. The parameters of 0.5 goals for home-field for Russia and 1.83 as the standard deviation in score are the same as before.

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
A	Uruguay	1.58	44.27%	16.42%	5.85%	2.45%
B	Portugal	1.80	55.73%	22.91%	8.99%	4.57%
C	France	2.29	54.26%	33.58%	17.20%	10.30%
D	Argentina	2.09	45.74%	27.09%	12.58%	6.78%
E	Brazil	2.77	77.52%	55.07%	36.03%	25.41%
F	Mexico	1.42	22.48%	9.85%	3.67%	1.71%
G	Belgium	1.97	70.41%	28.44%	13.72%	7.48%
H	Japan	1.02	29.59%	6.64%	1.96%	0.79%
B	Spain	2.25	63.55%	43.22%	28.53%	14.67%
A	Russia	1.15	36.45%	20.49%	10.67%	4.01%
D	Croatia	1.46	53.00%	19.69%	9.53%	3.35%
C	Denmark	1.35	47.00%	16.60%	7.64%	2.35%
F	Sweden	1.29	47.77%	19.53%	7.55%	2.33%
E	Switzerland	1.42	52.23%	22.55%	8.96%	3.02%
H	Colombia	1.67	47.89%	27.33%	12.39%	4.80%
G	England	1.74	52.11%	30.59%	14.73%	5.98%

As before the tournament, Brazil is heavily your projected champion. I'm guessing the main reason my projections are so down on Spain compared to places like FiveThirtyEight is how I'm accounting for home field for Russia. I have Russia at a 36% chance to beat Spain in the next match, whereas they have Russia as a heavy 22% underdog.