Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2019)

I caught some flack for my model being so chalky going into the tournament, and well, here we are:

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Duke	67.55%	40.85%	23.65%	13.52%
4	Virginia Tech	32.45%	13.91%	5.58%	2.20%
3	LSU	32.63%	11.01%	3.91%	1.37%
2	Michigan St.	67.37%	34.23%	18.13%	9.48%
1	Gonzaga	66.97%	39.31%	21.62%	12.03%
4	Florida St.	33.03%	13.65%	5.20%	2.01%
3	Texas Tech	45.10%	20.03%	8.78%	3.90%
2	Michigan	54.90%	27.01%	13.13%	6.46%
1	Virginia	82.75%	52.68%	33.34%	19.30%
12	Oregon	17.25%	4.77%	1.32%	0.31%
3	Purdue	44.18%	17.47%	8.12%	3.33%
2	Tennessee	55.82%	25.07%	13.11%	6.12%
1	North Carolina	64.01%	37.41%	18.68%	9.42%
5	Auburn	35.99%	15.95%	5.79%	2.12%
3	Houston	40.75%	16.80%	6.13%	2.25%
2	Kentucky	59.25%	29.84%	13.52%	6.18%

Virginia is the only team with better than a 50/50 chance of making the Final Four at this point, and no team has even a 1 in 5 chance of winning it all. Interestingly, they are also the only team to see their odds improve from prior to the tournament. The chalkyness of results has left Duke, Carolina, and Gonzaga relatively unchanged. Even so, there is a 54% likelihood that one of the 1 seeds ends up winning it all.