Every year, the Super Bowl is played at a different neutral site, determined years in advance. There have been 54 Super Bowls to date in 15 different cities, and yet no team has played in the game at their home venue. Just how unlikely is this, over the past 5+ decades?
I assumed each team had an equal chance of making the Super Bowl in a given season, and then went through the history of the league to determine the number of teams in each year. There are some wrinkles to account for over time, to ultimately calculate:
# possible teams at home * (# of teams to make the Super Bowl: 2 / # teams)
This can differ a given year if either the hosting venue has more than one tenet (such as MetLife Stadium), or the game was played at a site that wasn't home to an NFL team (such as the Rose Bowl).
1 - the above calculation gives the chance that the Super Bowl does not include the home tenet, and then multiplying this over every year gives the chances it hasn't happened yet: 3.3%.
| Season | Number | # Playoff Teams | # Teams | SB Location | Home? | # Teams Poss | No Home | RunningOdds |
| 1966 | 1 | 2 | 24 | Los Angeles, California | 1 | 1 | 91.7% | 91.7% |
| 1967 | 2 | 2 | 25 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.0% | 84.3% |
| 1968 | 3 | 2 | 26 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.3% | 77.8% |
| 1969 | 4 | 2 | 26 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 92.3% | 71.9% |
| 1970 | 5 | 8 | 26 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.3% | 66.3% |
| 1971 | 6 | 8 | 26 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 92.3% | 61.2% |
| 1972 | 7 | 8 | 26 | Los Angeles, California | 1 | 1 | 92.3% | 56.5% |
| 1973 | 8 | 8 | 26 | Houston, Texas | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 56.5% |
| 1974 | 9 | 8 | 26 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 92.3% | 52.2% |
| 1975 | 10 | 8 | 26 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.3% | 48.2% |
| 1976 | 11 | 8 | 28 | Pasadena, California | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 48.2% |
| 1977 | 12 | 8 | 28 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 44.7% |
| 1978 | 13 | 10 | 28 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 41.5% |
| 1979 | 14 | 10 | 28 | Pasadena, California | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 41.5% |
| 1980 | 15 | 10 | 28 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 38.6% |
| 1981 | 16 | 10 | 28 | Pontiac, Michigan | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 35.8% |
| 1982 | 17 | 16 | 28 | Pasadena, California | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 35.8% |
| 1983 | 18 | 10 | 28 | Tampa, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 33.2% |
| 1984 | 19 | 10 | 28 | Stanford, California | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 33.2% |
| 1985 | 20 | 10 | 28 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 30.9% |
| 1986 | 21 | 10 | 28 | Pasadena, California | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 30.9% |
| 1987 | 22 | 10 | 28 | San Diego, California | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 28.7% |
| 1988 | 23 | 10 | 28 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 26.6% |
| 1989 | 24 | 10 | 28 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 24.7% |
| 1990 | 25 | 12 | 28 | Tampa, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 23.0% |
| 1991 | 26 | 12 | 28 | Minneapolis, Minnesota | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 21.3% |
| 1992 | 27 | 12 | 28 | Pasadena, California | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 21.3% |
| 1993 | 28 | 12 | 28 | Atlanta, Georgia | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 19.8% |
| 1994 | 29 | 12 | 28 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 92.9% | 18.4% |
| 1995 | 30 | 12 | 30 | Tempe, Arizona | 1 | 1 | 93.3% | 17.2% |
| 1996 | 31 | 12 | 30 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 93.3% | 16.0% |
| 1997 | 32 | 12 | 30 | San Diego, California | 1 | 1 | 93.3% | 14.9% |
| 1998 | 33 | 12 | 30 | Miami, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.3% | 13.9% |
| 1999 | 34 | 12 | 31 | Atlanta, Georgia | 1 | 1 | 93.5% | 13.0% |
| 2000 | 35 | 12 | 31 | Tampa, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.5% | 12.2% |
| 2001 | 36 | 12 | 31 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 93.5% | 11.4% |
| 2002 | 37 | 12 | 32 | San Diego, California | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 10.7% |
| 2003 | 38 | 12 | 32 | Houston, Texas | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 10.0% |
| 2004 | 39 | 12 | 32 | Jacksonville, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 9.4% |
| 2005 | 40 | 12 | 32 | Detroit, Michigan | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 8.8% |
| 2006 | 41 | 12 | 32 | Miami Gardens, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 8.3% |
| 2007 | 42 | 12 | 32 | Glendale, Arizona | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 7.8% |
| 2008 | 43 | 12 | 32 | Tampa, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 7.3% |
| 2009 | 44 | 12 | 32 | Miami Gardens, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 6.8% |
| 2010 | 45 | 12 | 32 | Arlington, Texas | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 6.4% |
| 2011 | 46 | 12 | 32 | Indianapolis, Indiana | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 6.0% |
| 2012 | 47 | 12 | 32 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 5.6% |
| 2013 | 48 | 12 | 32 | East Rutherford, New Jersey | 1 | 2 | 87.5% | 4.9% |
| 2014 | 49 | 12 | 32 | Glendale, Arizona | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 4.6% |
| 2015 | 50 | 12 | 32 | Santa Clara, California | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 4.3% |
| 2016 | 51 | 12 | 32 | Houston, Texas | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 4.0% |
| 2017 | 52 | 12 | 32 | Minneapolis, Minnesota | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 3.8% |
| 2018 | 53 | 12 | 32 | Atlanta, Georgia | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 3.6% |
| 2019 | 54 | 12 | 32 | Miami Gardens, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 3.3% |
| 2020 | 55 | 14 | 32 | Tampa, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 3.1% |
| 2021 | 56 | 14 | 32 | Inglewood, California | 1 | 2 | 87.5% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | 57 | 14 | 32 | Glendale, Arizona | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.6% |
| 2023 | 58 | 14 | 32 | TBD | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | 59 | 14 | 32 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.3% |
There is a reason the 1984 season is highlighted: the San Francisco 49ers won that Super Bowl, but the venue was Stanford Stadium - which was NOT their home stadium (which was Candlestick Park). That venue would be considered semi-home, and if the site would have been The Stick, this whole exercise would be moot.
This year the chances are pretty good, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers currently tied for the best record in the NFC, and the Super Bowl held in Tampa. Which brings us to another wrinkle over recent history - Tom Brady.
The New England Patriots have had an incredible run over the past two decades, making 9 Super Bowls. But Foxborough, Massachusetts isn't in the rotation to host the game. So what if it was? What if Gillette Stadium replaced their AFC East counterparts' Dolphin Stadium?
The Patriots didn't make any of the 3 games played in South Florida. But as I previously determined, their "generic" odds of reaching the game were ~25% in any given year over the past 19 seasons.
If I apply this to the imaginary Foxborough years (Miami years in real life), the odds that no team would have played in the Super Bowl at home gets cut in half, to 1.7%.
| Season | Number | # Playoff Teams | # Teams | SB Location | Home? | # Teams Poss | No Home | RunningOdds | NEP? |
| 2001 | 36 | 12 | 31 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 93.5% | 11.4% | 1 |
| 2002 | 37 | 12 | 32 | San Diego, California | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 10.7% | 0 |
| 2003 | 38 | 12 | 32 | Houston, Texas | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 10.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 39 | 12 | 32 | Jacksonville, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 9.4% | 1 |
| 2005 | 40 | 12 | 32 | Detroit, Michigan | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 8.8% | 0 |
| 2006 | 41 | 12 | 32 | Foxborough, Massachusetts | 1 | 1 | 74.9% | 6.6% | 0 |
| 2007 | 42 | 12 | 32 | Glendale, Arizona | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 6.2% | 1 |
| 2008 | 43 | 12 | 32 | Tampa, Florida | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 5.8% | 0 |
| 2009 | 44 | 12 | 32 | Foxborough, Massachusetts | 1 | 1 | 74.9% | 4.3% | 0 |
| 2010 | 45 | 12 | 32 | Arlington, Texas | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 4.1% | 0 |
| 2011 | 46 | 12 | 32 | Indianapolis, Indiana | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 3.8% | 1 |
| 2012 | 47 | 12 | 32 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 3.6% | 0 |
| 2013 | 48 | 12 | 32 | East Rutherford, New Jersey | 1 | 2 | 87.5% | 3.1% | 0 |
| 2014 | 49 | 12 | 32 | Glendale, Arizona | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.9% | 1 |
| 2015 | 50 | 12 | 32 | Santa Clara, California | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.8% | 0 |
| 2016 | 51 | 12 | 32 | Houston, Texas | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.6% | 1 |
| 2017 | 52 | 12 | 32 | Minneapolis, Minnesota | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.4% | 1 |
| 2018 | 53 | 12 | 32 | Atlanta, Georgia | 1 | 1 | 93.8% | 2.3% | 1 |
| 2019 | 54 | 12 | 32 | Foxborough, Massachusetts | 1 | 1 | 74.9% | 1.7% | 0 |
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