In an entirely abnormal year, it feels like a fool's errand to try to predict the tournament. This past year has been really hard for most, and none of this feels normal.
But here we are, with the first tournament in 2 years.
With so many uneven schedules, differing numbers of games, and the possibility of teams forfeiting games due to COVID, I'm attempting to anchor on something in the face of larger than normal uncertainty, so I'm adding 2 retrodictive models to my composite this year - which aim more to assess how deserving a team is of its ranking, as opposed to predicting future performance. So my composite will be 6 in total, similar to what FiveThirtyEight does:
- Predictive
- FiveThirtyEight (so I'm including a composite of a composite)
- KenPom (who's ratings are also included in FiveThirtyEight, so they're counted twice)
- Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
- Jeff Sagarin (ratings also used in FiveThirtyEight; his overall rating, synthesis of his 3 ratings)
- Retrodictive
I then use a weighted average of these 6 ratings that reduces outliers by weighting the ratings closer to the median more (higher likelihood this year that this will come in to play due to the retrodictive components). This smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I then use to project the tournament.
Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them.
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| West | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 98.04% | 83.92% | 67.54% | 50.92% | 37.61% | 26.56% |
| 16* | Appalachian St. | 100.00% | 1.96% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 100.00% | 51.33% | 8.28% | 3.61% | 1.33% | 0.47% | 0.15% |
| 9 | Missouri | 100.00% | 48.67% | 7.48% | 3.16% | 1.13% | 0.39% | 0.12% |
| 5 | Creighton | 100.00% | 72.57% | 40.20% | 11.20% | 5.23% | 2.34% | 0.97% |
| 12 | UC Santa Barbara | 100.00% | 27.43% | 9.09% | 1.18% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Virginia | 100.00% | 77.04% | 43.93% | 12.53% | 5.96% | 2.72% | 1.14% |
| 13 | Ohio | 100.00% | 22.96% | 6.79% | 0.74% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 6 | USC | 100.00% | 66.93% | 35.67% | 16.34% | 5.19% | 2.32% | 0.95% |
| 11* | Wichita St. | 100.00% | 33.07% | 12.27% | 3.69% | 0.71% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 3 | Kansas | 100.00% | 82.25% | 47.78% | 23.07% | 7.81% | 3.69% | 1.61% |
| 14 | Eastern Washington | 100.00% | 17.75% | 4.29% | 0.76% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Oregon | 100.00% | 56.70% | 21.08% | 9.84% | 2.69% | 1.06% | 0.38% |
| 10 | VCU | 100.00% | 43.30% | 13.61% | 5.47% | 1.23% | 0.41% | 0.12% |
| 2 | Iowa | 100.00% | 89.42% | 62.79% | 40.33% | 17.21% | 9.81% | 5.23% |
| 15 | Grand Canyon | 100.00% | 10.58% | 2.51% | 0.50% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| East | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Michigan | 100.00% | 95.84% | 68.99% | 48.09% | 31.23% | 15.20% | 8.65% |
| 16* | Mt. St. Mary's | 100.00% | 4.16% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | LSU | 100.00% | 52.28% | 16.41% | 8.03% | 3.51% | 1.02% | 0.37% |
| 9 | St. Bonaventure | 100.00% | 47.72% | 14.08% | 6.58% | 2.73% | 0.75% | 0.25% |
| 5 | Colorado | 100.00% | 69.73% | 38.57% | 15.56% | 7.51% | 2.48% | 1.00% |
| 12 | Georgetown | 100.00% | 30.27% | 10.87% | 2.50% | 0.73% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Florida St. | 100.00% | 75.55% | 43.00% | 17.75% | 8.74% | 2.96% | 1.22% |
| 13 | UNC Greensboro | 100.00% | 24.45% | 7.56% | 1.43% | 0.35% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | BYU | 100.00% | 61.35% | 31.75% | 14.48% | 6.05% | 1.91% | 0.74% |
| 11* | UCLA | 100.00% | 38.65% | 15.81% | 5.51% | 1.73% | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| 3 | Texas | 100.00% | 78.78% | 46.38% | 23.22% | 10.71% | 3.80% | 1.63% |
| 14 | Abilene Christian | 100.00% | 21.22% | 6.06% | 1.33% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Connecticut | 100.00% | 57.04% | 23.36% | 11.47% | 4.56% | 1.36% | 0.50% |
| 10 | Maryland | 100.00% | 42.96% | 14.89% | 6.29% | 2.10% | 0.51% | 0.16% |
| 2 | Alabama | 100.00% | 90.72% | 60.04% | 37.41% | 19.76% | 8.23% | 4.08% |
| 15 | Iona | 100.00% | 9.28% | 1.71% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| South | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Baylor | 100.00% | 96.03% | 70.55% | 51.58% | 36.11% | 22.75% | 12.36% |
| 16 | Hartford | 100.00% | 3.97% | 0.52% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | North Carolina | 100.00% | 46.92% | 12.95% | 6.29% | 2.82% | 1.06% | 0.32% |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 100.00% | 53.08% | 15.97% | 8.23% | 3.94% | 1.60% | 0.52% |
| 5 | Villanova | 100.00% | 72.00% | 40.70% | 15.21% | 7.70% | 3.32% | 1.17% |
| 12 | Winthrop | 100.00% | 28.00% | 9.69% | 1.85% | 0.54% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Purdue | 100.00% | 74.11% | 41.41% | 15.36% | 7.73% | 3.31% | 1.15% |
| 13 | North Texas | 100.00% | 25.89% | 8.20% | 1.41% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 100.00% | 61.41% | 30.92% | 14.37% | 5.42% | 2.15% | 0.68% |
| 11 | Utah St. | 100.00% | 38.59% | 15.11% | 5.39% | 1.50% | 0.44% | 0.10% |
| 3 | Arkansas | 100.00% | 66.26% | 39.44% | 20.31% | 8.65% | 3.85% | 1.40% |
| 14 | Colgate | 100.00% | 33.74% | 14.53% | 5.20% | 1.45% | 0.43% | 0.10% |
| 7 | Florida | 100.00% | 53.24% | 19.27% | 8.49% | 2.65% | 0.87% | 0.23% |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 100.00% | 46.76% | 15.61% | 6.39% | 1.83% | 0.55% | 0.13% |
| 2 | Ohio St. | 100.00% | 90.47% | 63.08% | 39.51% | 19.23% | 9.77% | 4.13% |
| 15 | Oral Roberts | 100.00% | 9.53% | 2.04% | 0.34% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Midwest | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Illinois | 100.00% | 93.56% | 68.33% | 48.81% | 31.63% | 19.04% | 9.88% |
| 16 | Drexel | 100.00% | 6.44% | 1.18% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Loyola Chicago | 100.00% | 55.38% | 17.97% | 9.16% | 4.00% | 1.57% | 0.50% |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | 100.00% | 44.62% | 12.52% | 5.73% | 2.21% | 0.76% | 0.21% |
| 5 | Tennessee | 100.00% | 70.70% | 37.93% | 14.44% | 6.51% | 2.65% | 0.87% |
| 12 | Oregon St. | 100.00% | 29.30% | 9.82% | 2.02% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Oklahoma St. | 100.00% | 78.33% | 45.89% | 18.58% | 8.85% | 3.82% | 1.35% |
| 13 | Liberty | 100.00% | 21.67% | 6.37% | 1.04% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 6 | San Diego St. | 100.00% | 63.92% | 34.04% | 15.32% | 6.47% | 2.69% | 0.92% |
| 11 | Syracuse | 100.00% | 36.08% | 14.43% | 4.62% | 1.37% | 0.40% | 0.09% |
| 3 | West Virginia | 100.00% | 83.67% | 47.98% | 22.68% | 10.08% | 4.43% | 1.60% |
| 14 | Morehead St. | 100.00% | 16.33% | 3.55% | 0.56% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Clemson | 100.00% | 50.49% | 17.27% | 7.66% | 2.68% | 0.93% | 0.25% |
| 10 | Rutgers | 100.00% | 49.51% | 16.73% | 7.34% | 2.54% | 0.86% | 0.23% |
| 2 | Houston | 100.00% | 91.03% | 64.12% | 41.49% | 22.78% | 12.38% | 5.70% |
| 15 | Cleveland St. | 100.00% | 8.97% | 1.89% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Totals | 64.00 | 32.00 | 16.00 | 8.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
In a testament to KenPom and the larger analytics movement in general, this is the chalkiest set of predictions I've ever put out. There is one predicted upset by seeding in the entire tournament... ironically, Wisconsin (9) over North Carolina (8).
For the rankings, I've included the alt teams as well, because this year is unique due to COVID:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 96.80 |
| 2 | Baylor | 92.91 |
| 3 | Illinois | 92.00 |
| 4 | Michigan | 91.49 |
| 5 | Iowa | 90.17 |
| 6 | Houston | 89.84 |
| 7 | Alabama | 88.83 |
| 8 | Ohio St. | 88.43 |
| 9 | Kansas | 86.64 |
| 10 | Texas | 86.40 |
| 11 | Arkansas | 86.17 |
| 12 | Virginia | 86.07 |
| 13 | West Virginia | 86.02 |
| 14 | Creighton | 85.77 |
| 15 | Florida St. | 85.76 |
| 16 | USC | 85.74 |
| 17 | Oklahoma St. | 85.72 |
| 18 | Villanova | 85.64 |
| 19 | Purdue | 85.54 |
| 20 | Colorado | 85.41 |
| 21 | San Diego St. | 85.19 |
| 22 | Tennessee | 84.80 |
| 23 | BYU | 84.80 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | 84.66 |
| 25 | Texas Tech | 84.33 |
| 26 | Loyola Chicago | 84.26 |
| 27 | Connecticut | 84.05 |
| 28 | Oregon | 83.76 |
| 29 | LSU | 83.75 |
| 30 | North Carolina | 83.59 |
| 31 | St. Bonaventure | 82.95 |
| 32 | Clemson | 82.44 |
| 33 | Georgia Tech | 82.38 |
| 34 | Rutgers | 82.27 |
| 35 | Oklahoma | 82.20 |
| 36 | Florida | 81.75 |
| 37 | Missouri | 81.73 |
| 38 | Maryland | 81.57 |
| 39 | VCU | 81.41 |
| 40 | UCLA | 80.77 |
| 41 | Virginia Tech | 80.62 |
| 42 | Colgate | 80.31 |
| 43 | Utah St. | 80.29 |
| 44 | Syracuse | 80.21 |
| 45 | Michigan St. | 79.89 |
| 46 | Wichita St. | 79.63 |
| 47 | Drake | 78.80 |
| 48 | Georgetown | 78.20 |
| 49 | Louisville | 77.92 |
| 50 | Saint Louis | 77.79 |
| 51 | Winthrop | 77.51 |
| 52 | UC Santa Barbara | 77.40 |
| 53 | Ole Miss | 77.23 |
| 54 | Oregon St. | 77.20 |
| 55 | Colorado St. | 76.88 |
| 56 | North Texas | 76.51 |
| 57 | UNC Greensboro | 76.11 |
| 58 | Ohio | 75.74 |
| 59 | Abilene Christian | 75.26 |
| 60 | Liberty | 74.79 |
| 61 | Eastern Washington | 73.73 |
| 62 | Grand Canyon | 72.75 |
| 63 | Morehead St. | 72.33 |
| 64 | Cleveland St. | 71.11 |
| 65 | Drexel | 70.82 |
| 66 | Iona | 70.37 |
| 67 | Oral Roberts | 70.17 |
| 68 | Hartford | 68.45 |
| 69 | Appalachian St. | 68.04 |
| 70 | Norfolk St. | 67.44 |
| 71 | Mt. St. Mary's | 67.32 |
| 72 | Texas Southern | 66.66 |
The inclusion of the retrodictive components could be influencing the chalkiest of the bracket, so I decided to rerun it with only the 4 predictive pieces (FiveThirtyEight, KenPom, Powerrank, Sagarin).
Some slight changes, including some 5 seeds predicted over 4s, and things tighten up elsewhere, which makes more inclined to trust this set of outputs:
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| West | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 98.37% | 85.21% | 69.21% | 52.74% | 40.00% | 28.75% |
| 16* | Appalachian St. | 100.00% | 1.63% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 100.00% | 54.78% | 8.60% | 3.81% | 1.44% | 0.54% | 0.18% |
| 9 | Missouri | 100.00% | 45.22% | 5.94% | 2.36% | 0.79% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 5 | Creighton | 100.00% | 74.48% | 42.46% | 11.62% | 5.54% | 2.60% | 1.10% |
| 12 | UC Santa Barbara | 100.00% | 25.52% | 8.30% | 0.97% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Virginia | 100.00% | 75.63% | 41.96% | 11.23% | 5.26% | 2.43% | 1.01% |
| 13 | Ohio | 100.00% | 24.37% | 7.28% | 0.78% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 6 | USC | 100.00% | 68.90% | 37.47% | 16.84% | 5.07% | 2.30% | 0.94% |
| 11* | Wichita St. | 100.00% | 31.10% | 11.22% | 3.10% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 3 | Kansas | 100.00% | 79.66% | 45.85% | 21.36% | 6.73% | 3.17% | 1.35% |
| 14 | Eastern Washington | 100.00% | 20.34% | 5.46% | 1.05% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Oregon | 100.00% | 55.91% | 19.55% | 9.04% | 2.25% | 0.88% | 0.30% |
| 10 | VCU | 100.00% | 44.09% | 13.23% | 5.36% | 1.12% | 0.38% | 0.11% |
| 2 | Iowa | 100.00% | 88.96% | 64.30% | 42.60% | 17.95% | 10.62% | 5.79% |
| 15 | Grand Canyon | 100.00% | 11.04% | 2.92% | 0.64% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| East | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Michigan | 100.00% | 96.16% | 68.29% | 46.96% | 30.85% | 14.34% | 8.08% |
| 16* | Mt. St. Mary's | 100.00% | 3.84% | 0.43% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | LSU | 100.00% | 50.37% | 15.83% | 7.62% | 3.40% | 0.94% | 0.33% |
| 9 | St. Bonaventure | 100.00% | 49.63% | 15.44% | 7.37% | 3.26% | 0.89% | 0.31% |
| 5 | Colorado | 100.00% | 68.24% | 38.33% | 15.96% | 8.07% | 2.62% | 1.08% |
| 12 | Georgetown | 100.00% | 31.76% | 12.14% | 3.06% | 1.00% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 4 | Florida St. | 100.00% | 75.21% | 42.02% | 17.53% | 8.88% | 2.89% | 1.19% |
| 13 | UNC Greensboro | 100.00% | 24.79% | 7.51% | 1.46% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | BYU | 100.00% | 58.54% | 31.17% | 13.89% | 5.67% | 1.66% | 0.62% |
| 11* | UCLA | 100.00% | 41.46% | 18.66% | 6.79% | 2.24% | 0.51% | 0.15% |
| 3 | Texas | 100.00% | 74.44% | 42.16% | 20.07% | 8.79% | 2.79% | 1.13% |
| 14 | Abilene Christian | 100.00% | 25.56% | 8.01% | 1.93% | 0.42% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Connecticut | 100.00% | 55.83% | 24.90% | 13.35% | 5.65% | 1.73% | 0.67% |
| 10 | Maryland | 100.00% | 44.17% | 17.33% | 8.29% | 3.06% | 0.79% | 0.27% |
| 2 | Alabama | 100.00% | 90.93% | 56.39% | 35.46% | 18.30% | 7.09% | 3.41% |
| 15 | Iona | 100.00% | 9.07% | 1.38% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| South | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Baylor | 100.00% | 96.30% | 68.63% | 50.33% | 35.68% | 22.45% | 11.98% |
| 16 | Hartford | 100.00% | 3.70% | 0.41% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | North Carolina | 100.00% | 46.80% | 13.82% | 7.09% | 3.43% | 1.37% | 0.43% |
| 9 | Wisconsin | 100.00% | 53.20% | 17.14% | 9.33% | 4.80% | 2.07% | 0.71% |
| 5 | Villanova | 100.00% | 72.90% | 41.21% | 15.18% | 7.81% | 3.35% | 1.15% |
| 12 | Winthrop | 100.00% | 27.10% | 9.10% | 1.62% | 0.47% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Purdue | 100.00% | 72.04% | 40.22% | 14.67% | 7.49% | 3.19% | 1.08% |
| 13 | North Texas | 100.00% | 27.96% | 9.47% | 1.73% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 100.00% | 60.83% | 32.77% | 16.11% | 6.33% | 2.61% | 0.85% |
| 11 | Utah St. | 100.00% | 39.17% | 16.88% | 6.54% | 1.94% | 0.61% | 0.15% |
| 3 | Arkansas | 100.00% | 62.99% | 34.75% | 17.40% | 6.99% | 2.94% | 0.98% |
| 14 | Colgate | 100.00% | 37.01% | 15.59% | 5.85% | 1.67% | 0.51% | 0.12% |
| 7 | Florida | 100.00% | 54.84% | 21.13% | 9.60% | 3.08% | 1.04% | 0.27% |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 100.00% | 45.16% | 15.48% | 6.30% | 1.77% | 0.53% | 0.12% |
| 2 | Ohio St. | 100.00% | 88.87% | 60.82% | 37.73% | 17.99% | 8.95% | 3.63% |
| 15 | Oral Roberts | 100.00% | 11.13% | 2.57% | 0.47% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Midwest | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Illinois | 100.00% | 93.77% | 67.71% | 49.79% | 32.62% | 19.93% | 10.24% |
| 16 | Drexel | 100.00% | 6.23% | 1.08% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Loyola Chicago | 100.00% | 56.41% | 18.91% | 10.36% | 4.74% | 1.96% | 0.64% |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | 100.00% | 43.59% | 12.30% | 5.97% | 2.36% | 0.84% | 0.23% |
| 5 | Tennessee | 100.00% | 70.67% | 40.52% | 15.22% | 6.94% | 2.86% | 0.93% |
| 12 | Oregon St. | 100.00% | 29.33% | 10.80% | 2.18% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Oklahoma St. | 100.00% | 74.90% | 41.17% | 15.04% | 6.69% | 2.69% | 0.85% |
| 13 | Liberty | 100.00% | 25.10% | 7.51% | 1.23% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | San Diego St. | 100.00% | 58.94% | 30.55% | 12.89% | 5.15% | 2.04% | 0.64% |
| 11 | Syracuse | 100.00% | 41.06% | 17.81% | 6.05% | 1.93% | 0.61% | 0.15% |
| 3 | West Virginia | 100.00% | 84.64% | 48.52% | 22.18% | 9.62% | 4.15% | 1.42% |
| 14 | Morehead St. | 100.00% | 15.36% | 3.12% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Clemson | 100.00% | 46.44% | 14.68% | 6.36% | 2.10% | 0.69% | 0.17% |
| 10 | Rutgers | 100.00% | 53.56% | 18.55% | 8.67% | 3.14% | 1.13% | 0.31% |
| 2 | Houston | 100.00% | 92.32% | 65.31% | 43.18% | 23.76% | 13.06% | 5.92% |
| 15 | Cleveland St. | 100.00% | 7.68% | 1.45% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Totals | 64.00 | 32.00 | 16.00 | 8.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Gonzaga | 96.75 |
| 2 | Baylor | 92.35 |
| 3 | Illinois | 91.62 |
| 4 | Michigan | 90.69 |
| 5 | Iowa | 90.03 |
| 6 | Houston | 89.34 |
| 7 | Alabama | 87.70 |
| 8 | Ohio St. | 87.51 |
| 9 | Kansas | 85.67 |
| 10 | Creighton | 85.63 |
| 11 | Virginia | 85.35 |
| 12 | Florida St. | 85.20 |
| 13 | Colorado | 85.17 |
| 14 | USC | 85.06 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 85.04 |
| 16 | West Virginia | 85.03 |
| 17 | Villanova | 85.02 |
| 18 | Purdue | 84.88 |
| 19 | Texas | 84.85 |
| 20 | Arkansas | 84.71 |
| 21 | Texas Tech | 84.38 |
| 22 | Loyola Chicago | 84.36 |
| 23 | Connecticut | 84.32 |
| 24 | Tennessee | 84.30 |
| 25 | North Carolina | 83.92 |
| 26 | Oklahoma St. | 83.90 |
| 27 | BYU | 83.76 |
| 28 | San Diego St. | 83.74 |
| 29 | LSU | 83.02 |
| 30 | St. Bonaventure | 82.89 |
| 31 | Oregon | 82.67 |
| 32 | Rutgers | 82.30 |
| 33 | Maryland | 82.28 |
| 34 | Georgia Tech | 82.10 |
| 35 | Oklahoma | 82.02 |
| 36 | Florida | 81.56 |
| 37 | Clemson | 81.05 |
| 38 | UCLA | 80.75 |
| 39 | VCU | 80.60 |
| 40 | Syracuse | 80.58 |
| 41 | Utah St. | 80.55 |
| 42 | Missouri | 80.34 |
| 43 | Michigan St. | 80.10 |
| 44 | Colgate | 80.09 |
| 45 | Virginia Tech | 79.87 |
| 46 | Georgetown | 78.55 |
| 47 | Wichita St. | 78.19 |
| 48 | Drake | 77.63 |
| 49 | Saint Louis | 77.20 |
| 50 | Ole Miss | 76.89 |
| 51 | North Texas | 76.74 |
| 52 | Oregon St. | 76.72 |
| 53 | Winthrop | 76.52 |
| 54 | UC Santa Barbara | 76.45 |
| 55 | Louisville | 76.09 |
| 56 | UNC Greensboro | 75.70 |
| 57 | Abilene Christian | 75.69 |
| 58 | Ohio | 75.66 |
| 59 | Liberty | 74.53 |
| 60 | Colorado St. | 74.51 |
| 61 | Eastern Washington | 74.10 |
| 62 | Grand Canyon | 72.94 |
| 63 | Morehead St. | 70.79 |
| 64 | Oral Roberts | 70.50 |
| 65 | Drexel | 70.20 |
| 66 | Cleveland St. | 69.43 |
| 67 | Iona | 69.05 |
| 68 | Hartford | 67.43 |
| 69 | Appalachian St. | 66.96 |
| 70 | Mt. St. Mary's | 66.01 |
| 71 | Norfolk St. | 65.87 |
| 72 | Texas Southern | 64.39 |
I’ll take that 0.32% chance of UNC winning the natty. It ain’t zero.
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