Curry Will Likely Break His Own NBA Finals Record (If the Series Goes 7)

In 2015, I wrote "Stephen Curry Will Likely Break Danny Green's NBA Finals Record". And he did! One season later, in 2016. Curry hit 25 threes in a 6 game series in 2015, falling short of Green's 2013 record of 27. I had him pegged at 88% to best 27 if the series went 6 games; instead, he hit 32 in the 7 game series in 2016.

And that's where the record stands going in to Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals. Curry is at 25 through 5 games, and needs 8 more to break his own record (7 more to tie).

Similar to 7 years ago, I simulated each remaining game 10,000 times, and can follow through how many times Curry gets 8 or more.

Once again, I will proclaim that Curry will likely break his own NBA Finals record... if the series goes 7. There's a ~0.2% chance he does it in just Game 6 - and he has hit 9 threes before in a Finals game, which the simulator gives a small 0.02% chance of happening on the road, in Boston, against the best defense in the league.

Interestingly, there were only 3 sim runs at home in which he hits 0 threes. This translates to a 0.03% chance of Game 5's aberration.

But if the series goes 7, he's up to a 52.7% chance of making 8 or more over two games and breaking his record. Add in 22.9% that he hits 7 exactly, and he's at 75.5% to at least tie himself if the series goes back to San Francisco.

NBA Finals 2022 Bracket Math

Back in 2020, both my simulator and FiveThirtyEight projected the Miami Heat to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the bubble - both obviously overstating Miami's chances. And FiveThirtyEight is doing it again - giving Boston an 80% (!!!) chance of beating Golden State for the title.

I don't have it that extreme (just like I didn't give Lebron a 1 in 4 chance in 2020), but I do also have Boston as the favorite, with Boston in 6 the most likely outcome:

# Games	BOS in...	GSW in...
4	8.5%	4.6%
5	15.5%	9.8%
6	18.2%	13.7%
7	15.3%	14.4%
	57.5%	42.5%

Golden State may have more scoring depth, but the sims have Tatum and Brown besting Curry and the Warriors second star (is it Klay? Poole depending upon the game? Wiggins?):

Name	Pos	Team	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers	Steals	Blocks
Jayson Tatum	SF	BOS	29.7	6.2	6.6	4.0	1.7	0.4
Stephen Curry	PG	GSW	25.8	4.2	6.3	2.3	1.4	0.2
Jaylen Brown	SG	BOS	20.7	5.4	3.6	2.4	1.5	0.2
Andrew Wiggins	SF	GSW	16.8	6.2	1.9	1.2	1.1	0.4
Klay Thompson	SF	GSW	16.5	3.4	2.4	1.1	1.2	0.3
Jordan Poole	SG	GSW	16.1	2.5	4.3	2.1	1.0	0.2
Marcus Smart	PG	BOS	13.7	3.5	5.7	1.7	1.3	0.1
Grant Williams	PF	BOS	12.2	4.6	0.9	1.0	0.6	0.4
Al Horford	C	BOS	11.1	8.6	4.0	1.1	1.2	0.7
Draymond Green	PF	GSW	9.1	6.1	6.7	2.6	1.2	0.6
Derrick White	SG	BOS	8.2	2.8	2.7	0.9	1.1	0.2
Kevon Looney	C	GSW	8.1	8.7	3.2	0.8	0.6	0.2
Robert Williams	PF	BOS	5.3	3.0	0.6	0.3	0.5	0.5

Indicative of a tight series, on a game-by-game basis, Golden State wins by a score of 110-108 at home 53.2% of the time, and Boston has slightly better odds in their building, 53.6% by a score of 112-110.