Thursday, June 2, 2022

NBA Finals 2022 Bracket Math

Back in 2020, both my simulator and FiveThirtyEight projected the Miami Heat to beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the bubble - both obviously overstating Miami's chances. And FiveThirtyEight is doing it again - giving Boston an 80% (!!!) chance of beating Golden State for the title.

I don't have it that extreme (just like I didn't give Lebron a 1 in 4 chance in 2020), but I do also have Boston as the favorite, with Boston in 6 the most likely outcome:

# GamesBOS in...GSW in...
48.5%4.6%
515.5%9.8%
618.2%13.7%
715.3%14.4%
57.5%42.5%

Golden State may have more scoring depth, but the sims have Tatum and Brown besting Curry and the Warriors second star (is it Klay? Poole depending upon the game? Wiggins?):

NamePosTeamPointsReboundsAssistsTurnoversStealsBlocks
Jayson TatumSFBOS29.76.26.64.01.70.4
Stephen CurryPGGSW25.84.26.32.31.40.2
Jaylen BrownSGBOS20.75.43.62.41.50.2
Andrew WigginsSFGSW16.86.21.91.21.10.4
Klay ThompsonSFGSW16.53.42.41.11.20.3
Jordan PooleSGGSW16.12.54.32.11.00.2
Marcus SmartPGBOS13.73.55.71.71.30.1
Grant WilliamsPFBOS12.24.60.91.00.60.4
Al HorfordCBOS11.18.64.01.11.20.7
Draymond GreenPFGSW9.16.16.72.61.20.6
Derrick WhiteSGBOS8.22.82.70.91.10.2
Kevon LooneyCGSW8.18.73.20.80.60.2
Robert WilliamsPFBOS5.33.00.60.30.50.5

Indicative of a tight series, on a game-by-game basis, Golden State wins by a score of 110-108 at home 53.2% of the time, and Boston has slightly better odds in their building, 53.6% by a score of 112-110.

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