Bowl season is upon us, and with it comes a lot of lopsided matchups. The model disagrees with a lot of the public lines, but first we'll look at the CFP matchups:
| Team A | Team B | Date | Rating A | Rating B | Pred Line | Log5 | Pred Winner | Line |
| CFP Semifinals | | | | | | | | |
| Michigan | TCU | 12/31/22 | 22.68 | 14.10 | -8.58 | 74.53% | Michigan | -7.5 |
| Georgia | Ohio State | 12/31/22 | 29.04 | 24.01 | -5.03 | 65.07% | Georgia | -6.5 |
| CFP Final | | | | | | | | |
| Michigan | Georgia | 1/9/23 | 22.68 | 29.04 | 6.36 | 68.78% | Georgia | |
| Michigan | Ohio State | 1/9/23 | 22.68 | 24.01 | 1.33 | 54.08% | Ohio State | |
| TCU | Georgia | 1/9/23 | 14.10 | 29.04 | 14.94 | 87.48% | Georgia | |
| TCU | Ohio State | 1/9/23 | 14.10 | 24.01 | 9.91 | 77.70% | Ohio State |
The winner of Georgia/Ohio State is likely to win it all, as either team would be very large (> 75%) favorites over TCU and also slight favorites over Michigan.
As for the rest of the bowls, the model disagrees with Vegas a lot of the time - but this team-wide model isn't accounting for any player injuries or opt outs, or effort level, which can be very hard to tease out for the non-playoff bowl games.
| Team A | Team B | Date | Rating A | Rating B | Pred Line | Log5 | Pred Winner | Line | Abs Delta |
| Miami (OH) | UAB | 12/16/22 | -7.77 | -1.42 | 6.35 | 68.74% | UAB | 11 | 4.7 |
| UTSA | Troy | 12/16/22 | 2.01 | -0.81 | -2.82 | 58.58% | UTSA | 1 | 3.8 |
| Cincinnati | Louisville | 12/17/22 | 10.00 | 8.28 | -1.73 | 55.29% | Cincinnati | 1 | 2.7 |
| Florida | Oregon State | 12/17/22 | 11.33 | 6.51 | -4.82 | 64.45% | Florida | 10 | 14.8 |
| Washington State | Fresno State | 12/17/22 | 3.06 | 1.01 | -2.04 | 56.25% | Washington State | 3 | 5.0 |
| Southern Miss | Rice | 12/17/22 | -5.43 | -13.00 | -7.57 | 71.98% | Southern Miss | -6.5 | 1.1 |
| SMU | Brigham Young | 12/17/22 | 4.82 | 4.41 | -0.41 | 51.26% | SMU | -3.5 | 3.1 |
| North Texas | Boise State | 12/17/22 | -6.18 | 2.69 | 8.88 | 75.27% | Boise State | 10 | 1.1 |
| Marshall | Connecticut | 12/19/22 | 1.85 | -17.23 | -19.08 | 92.89% | Marshall | -10 | 9.1 |
| San Jose State | Eastern Michigan | 12/20/22 | -7.47 | -8.38 | -0.91 | 52.80% | San Jose State | -3.5 | 2.6 |
| Toledo | Liberty | 12/20/22 | -2.10 | -0.46 | 1.64 | 55.02% | Liberty | -4.5 | 6.1 |
| South Alabama | Western Kentucky | 12/21/22 | -2.59 | -1.83 | 0.76 | 52.33% | Western Kentucky | -8 | 8.8 |
| Air Force | Baylor | 12/22/22 | 0.87 | 10.76 | 9.89 | 77.66% | Baylor | 6.5 | 3.4 |
| Houston | Louisiana | 12/23/22 | 5.69 | -0.60 | -6.30 | 68.59% | Houston | -6.5 | 0.2 |
| Missouri | Wake Forest | 12/23/22 | 6.41 | 7.04 | 0.63 | 51.93% | Wake Forest | 1 | 0.4 |
| San Diego State | Middle Tennessee | 12/24/22 | -4.24 | -9.21 | -4.96 | 64.87% | San Diego State | -7 | 2.0 |
| Bowling Green | New Mexico State | 12/26/22 | -13.15 | -18.54 | -5.40 | 66.10% | Bowling Green | -3 | 2.4 |
| Buffalo | Georgia Southern | 12/27/22 | -8.71 | -7.87 | 0.84 | 52.56% | Georgia Southern | 3.5 | 2.7 |
| Utah State | Memphis | 12/27/22 | -8.33 | 2.48 | 10.81 | 79.72% | Memphis | 7 | 3.8 |
| East Carolina | Coastal Carolina | 12/27/22 | 0.96 | -2.08 | -3.05 | 59.27% | East Carolina | -9 | 6.0 |
| Oklahoma State | Wisconsin | 12/27/22 | 11.05 | 7.28 | -3.77 | 61.42% | Oklahoma State | 3 | 6.8 |
| Duke | UCF | 12/28/22 | -3.06 | 7.72 | 10.78 | 79.65% | UCF | -1.5 | 12.3 |
| Arkansas | Kansas | 12/28/22 | 9.92 | -0.54 | -10.45 | 78.93% | Arkansas | -2.5 | 8.0 |
| North Carolina | Oregon | 12/28/22 | 5.78 | 11.84 | 6.06 | 67.95% | Oregon | 14 | 7.9 |
| Ole Miss | Texas Tech | 12/28/22 | 11.46 | 7.70 | -3.76 | 61.38% | Ole Miss | -3.5 | 0.3 |
| Minnesota | Syracuse | 12/29/22 | 7.58 | 3.27 | -4.31 | 63.00% | Minnesota | -7.5 | 3.2 |
| Florida State | Oklahoma | 12/29/22 | 10.35 | 13.29 | 2.94 | 58.95% | Oklahoma | -7.5 | 10.4 |
| Washington | Texas | 12/29/22 | 7.35 | 15.95 | 8.60 | 74.59% | Texas | 5 | 3.6 |
| North Carolina State | Maryland | 12/30/22 | 8.82 | 5.38 | -3.44 | 60.45% | North Carolina State | 1.5 | 4.9 |
| UCLA | Pittsburgh | 12/30/22 | 8.98 | 8.62 | -0.36 | 51.10% | UCLA | -6 | 5.6 |
| South Carolina | Notre Dame | 12/30/22 | 8.90 | 14.27 | 5.38 | 66.04% | Notre Dame | 2 | 3.4 |
| Wyoming | Ohio | 12/30/22 | -10.45 | -8.22 | 2.24 | 56.83% | Ohio | 0 | 2.2 |
| Clemson | Tennessee | 12/30/22 | 17.31 | 17.24 | -0.07 | 50.21% | Clemson | -6.5 | 6.4 |
| Kansas State | Alabama | 12/31/22 | 14.07 | 24.87 | 10.80 | 79.70% | Alabama | 3 | 7.8 |
| Kentucky | Iowa | 12/31/22 | 11.75 | 8.78 | -2.97 | 59.04% | Kentucky | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Illinois | Mississippi State | 1/2/23 | 6.23 | 10.81 | 4.58 | 63.77% | Mississippi State | -2 | 6.6 |
| USC | Tulane | 1/2/23 | 9.51 | 6.42 | -3.09 | 59.39% | USC | -1.5 | 1.6 |
| Purdue | LSU | 1/2/23 | 7.16 | 12.86 | 5.69 | 66.93% | LSU | 10.5 | 4.8 |
| Utah | Penn State | 1/2/23 | 15.90 | 14.72 | -1.18 | 53.63% | Utah | -2.5 | 1.3 |
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