Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Bowl Probabilities + CFP Final Matchups

Bowl season is upon us, and with it comes a lot of lopsided matchups. The model disagrees with a lot of the public lines, but first we'll look at the CFP matchups:

Team ATeam BDateRating ARating BPred LineLog5Pred WinnerLine
CFP Semifinals
MichiganTCU12/31/2222.6814.10-8.5874.53%Michigan-7.5
GeorgiaOhio State12/31/2229.0424.01-5.0365.07%Georgia-6.5
CFP Final
MichiganGeorgia1/9/2322.6829.046.3668.78%Georgia
MichiganOhio State1/9/2322.6824.011.3354.08%Ohio State
TCUGeorgia1/9/2314.1029.0414.9487.48%Georgia
TCUOhio State1/9/2314.1024.019.9177.70%Ohio State

The winner of Georgia/Ohio State is likely to win it all, as either team would be very large (> 75%) favorites over TCU and also slight favorites over Michigan.

As for the rest of the bowls, the model disagrees with Vegas a lot of the time - but this team-wide model isn't accounting for any player injuries or opt outs, or effort level, which can be very hard to tease out for the non-playoff bowl games.

Team ATeam BDateRating ARating BPred LineLog5Pred WinnerLineAbs Delta
Miami (OH)UAB12/16/22-7.77-1.426.3568.74%UAB114.7
UTSATroy12/16/222.01-0.81-2.8258.58%UTSA13.8
CincinnatiLouisville12/17/2210.008.28-1.7355.29%Cincinnati12.7
FloridaOregon State12/17/2211.336.51-4.8264.45%Florida1014.8
Washington StateFresno State12/17/223.061.01-2.0456.25%Washington State35.0
Southern MissRice12/17/22-5.43-13.00-7.5771.98%Southern Miss-6.51.1
SMUBrigham Young12/17/224.824.41-0.4151.26%SMU-3.53.1
North TexasBoise State12/17/22-6.182.698.8875.27%Boise State101.1
MarshallConnecticut12/19/221.85-17.23-19.0892.89%Marshall-109.1
San Jose StateEastern Michigan12/20/22-7.47-8.38-0.9152.80%San Jose State-3.52.6
ToledoLiberty12/20/22-2.10-0.461.6455.02%Liberty-4.56.1
South AlabamaWestern Kentucky12/21/22-2.59-1.830.7652.33%Western Kentucky-88.8
Air ForceBaylor12/22/220.8710.769.8977.66%Baylor6.53.4
HoustonLouisiana12/23/225.69-0.60-6.3068.59%Houston-6.50.2
MissouriWake Forest12/23/226.417.040.6351.93%Wake Forest10.4
San Diego StateMiddle Tennessee12/24/22-4.24-9.21-4.9664.87%San Diego State-72.0
Bowling GreenNew Mexico State12/26/22-13.15-18.54-5.4066.10%Bowling Green-32.4
BuffaloGeorgia Southern12/27/22-8.71-7.870.8452.56%Georgia Southern3.52.7
Utah StateMemphis12/27/22-8.332.4810.8179.72%Memphis73.8
East CarolinaCoastal Carolina12/27/220.96-2.08-3.0559.27%East Carolina-96.0
Oklahoma StateWisconsin12/27/2211.057.28-3.7761.42%Oklahoma State36.8
DukeUCF12/28/22-3.067.7210.7879.65%UCF-1.512.3
ArkansasKansas12/28/229.92-0.54-10.4578.93%Arkansas-2.58.0
North CarolinaOregon12/28/225.7811.846.0667.95%Oregon147.9
Ole MissTexas Tech12/28/2211.467.70-3.7661.38%Ole Miss-3.50.3
MinnesotaSyracuse12/29/227.583.27-4.3163.00%Minnesota-7.53.2
Florida StateOklahoma12/29/2210.3513.292.9458.95%Oklahoma-7.510.4
WashingtonTexas12/29/227.3515.958.6074.59%Texas53.6
North Carolina StateMaryland12/30/228.825.38-3.4460.45%North Carolina State1.54.9
UCLAPittsburgh12/30/228.988.62-0.3651.10%UCLA-65.6
South CarolinaNotre Dame12/30/228.9014.275.3866.04%Notre Dame23.4
WyomingOhio12/30/22-10.45-8.222.2456.83%Ohio02.2
ClemsonTennessee12/30/2217.3117.24-0.0750.21%Clemson-6.56.4
Kansas StateAlabama12/31/2214.0724.8710.8079.70%Alabama37.8
KentuckyIowa12/31/2211.758.78-2.9759.04%Kentucky2.55.5
IllinoisMississippi State1/2/236.2310.814.5863.77%Mississippi State-26.6
USCTulane1/2/239.516.42-3.0959.39%USC-1.51.6
PurdueLSU1/2/237.1612.865.6966.93%LSU10.54.8
UtahPenn State1/2/2315.9014.72-1.1853.63%Utah-2.51.3

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