Simulating the 2022 Knockout Rounds of the World Cup

For the first time since 1994, every single team had at least one draw or one loss - which should give all the remaining teams hope, as group winners with 9 points rarely win the whole thing.

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
A	Netherlands	2.02	63.37%	36.87%	18.84%	10.44%
B	United States	1.45	36.63%	15.65%	6.12%	2.56%
C	Argentina	2.02	72.53%	39.07%	19.39%	10.26%
D	Australia	1.03	27.47%	8.41%	2.42%	0.78%
E	Japan	1.37	42.16%	14.52%	5.69%	2.10%
F	Croatia	1.57	57.84%	20.26%	8.64%	3.60%
G	Brazil	2.42	70.57%	56.36%	35.78%	23.14%
H	South Korea	1.10	29.43%	8.86%	3.12%	1.00%
B	England	1.89	62.89%	35.25%	17.81%	8.29%
A	Senegal	1.21	37.11%	12.24%	4.21%	1.36%
D	France	1.94	60.63%	38.88%	19.35%	9.36%
C	Poland	1.26	39.37%	13.63%	4.59%	1.76%
F	Morocco	1.29	34.53%	11.82%	5.11%	1.69%
E	Spain	2.06	65.47%	38.30%	22.55%	11.24%
H	Portugal	1.99	55.84%	32.51%	18.56%	9.33%
G	Switzerland	1.57	44.16%	17.37%	7.82%	3.09%

Once again, as in 2014 and 2018, Brazil is the favorite. 

On the left side of the bracket, the chances for Netherlands and Argentina only slightly improve from pre-tournament, as they now have to go through eachother and then Brazil just to make the final.

England's/France/Spain/Portugal's path is much clearer, but due to Spain playing Portugal in their next game, we get the paradox where France is more likely to make the semifinals, but less likely to make the final. The strength of your opponents matters in the short-run, but not the long-run.

And Morocco, the strongest "weakest" team in their group pre-tournament, who then won their group, is rewarded with the second most likely victor, Spain. And for about 5 minutes yesterday, Spain was out of the tournament!

Key stats:

• 6,500 migrant workers have died since the World Cup was awarded to Qatar, but Qatar claims 400-500 of those died working on "projects connected to the tournament" 
• Better than 10% to win:
• Brazil, 23.1%
• Spain, 11.2%
• Netherlands, 10.4%
• Argentina, 10.3%
• Odds a country outside of Europe/South America wins: 9.5%