As I wrote last year, if you had simply followed the crowd of Streak for the Cash in picking college basketball against the spread, you would have made a decent return, winning above the break-even threshold of 52.38%. I wanted to revisit this idea with a full season worth of data, since the best model only picked ATS winners correctly 50.93% of the time for the 2013-14 season.
I simply found regression to the mean. For the entire NCAAB season on STFC, the consensus went 116-152: 43.28%. In fact, if you had faded (gone against) these picks, you would've won 56.72% of your picks, netting a 8.28% return.
But in last season's analysis, I only took into account January 1 to the end of the season. For the 2013-14 season (from January 1-on), the trend was still reversed: 79-109, 42.02%. Again, fading these picks would've won 57.98% of the time, for a 10.69% return.
Will next year's STFC consensus picks beat Vegas or will fading those picks be the winning strategy? Your guess is as good as mine. I'm sticking with my math.
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