Yesterday I wrote of the 1 in 411,577,489 occurrence of the San Francisco Giants sharing the same inning-by-inning run totals as one of their minor league affiliates, the San Jose Giants. However, I only looked at the odds of that exact box score (a 2-0 final, with runs in the bottom of the 3rd and bottom of the 8th) happening. (Honestly because the math was more straightforward). But the more interesting question is to determine the probability that ANY set of inning-by-inning run totals is shared by an MLB team and one of their affiliates.
To do this, I wrote a simulator (in Python), using the figures from Baseball-Reference as the basis for each inning's runs scored probability, with the aim being to see how often any two teams would match their run totals inning-for-inning. Over 1 million simulations (I assumed this wouldn't occur very often), two teams (in different games) completely matched their scoring 0.6022% of time (so it actually happened more often than I expected). This means that the probability of both teams in both games matching their scoring would be 0.003626%, or 1 in 27,576.
As before, there's a 1/15 chance that these two matching box scores would involve an MLB team and its affiliate, so (1/15) * (1/27576) = 0.000242%, or 1 in 413,628. This is still an extremely rare occurrence, but not as extreme as the 1 in 411,577,489 chance of the exact box score that occurred the other day.
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