Proportion of the Time the First Team to Score 88 Wins the Game in NBA

Note: This post is designed to be a bit more tongue-in-cheek than some of my more rigorous analysis.

I've had an affinity for looking at phenomena related to the number 8. In light of the NBA Finals, my most recent task has been to identify what proportion of teams that hit a score of 88 first go on to win the game.

So I sampled 88 games from this past regular season (because of course I did), and in all 88 (100%), at least one team got to 88 or more points. In 80 games (90.9%), both teams scored at least 88 points.

In 65 games (73.9%), one or both teams scored exactly 88 points at some point in the game. This actually lines up in line with expectations, as we would expect 75% of all games to hit exactly 88 points (given that at least one team reaches that threshold, which they all did in this sample).

Here's why: there's a 50/50 chance that a team will hit either an even or odd number of points. There's a slim chance that the two teams' scores wouldn't be independent around 88 (such as in an end-of-game situation where the two teams may tie at 88), but since most scores reach the high 90's or 100+, this is a fairly rare occurrence and I'll assume the two teams' scores are independent around this mark. With this in mind, Team A has a 50% chance of not hitting 88, and Team B also has a 50% chance of not hitting 88. 50% * 50% = 25% (odds that neither team hits 88), so 1 - 25% = 75% that at least one team hits exactly 88.

Of those 65 games that hit 88, 43 (66.2%) of those teams to hit 88 first went on to win the game. And when the first team to hit 88 did so while leading, 81.1% of the time they went on to hold that lead and win the game (meaning 18.8% they coughed up the lead and lost). In fact, those 43 teams to hit 88 and win the game ALL did so when they had the lead. No team was behind and hit 88 and then came back to win (in the sample).

Now what does this mean in any sort of context? I have no idea. Does scoring exactly 88 points give you a boost? Maybe, but only if you're already in the lead (and having a 4th quarter lead is going to help a lot more than hitting some "magic number").