Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Round of 16

We are on to the Round of 16, and the favorites have continued to win (for the most part) so there are no large changes in the overall odds.

Argentina's path to the final remains clear, but France's has also cleared considerably, up until Spain in the semifinal.

Biggest increases relative to the start of the tournament:

• Argentina: +6%
• France: +4%

It's still a wide open tournament, with no one better than ~16% odds to win it all. Argentina (16%), Spain (14%), and France (12%) remain the only teams above 10%. Egypt is the longest remaining longshot, with a 1% chance. 

Additionally, still an 82% chance the winner comes from Europe or South America, as has happened every single World Cup ever played. Of that 18% where it's not, the vast majority (14%) comes from the three hosts with some home field advantage: Mexico, United States, and Canada.

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
D	Paraguay	1.33	31.78%	13.78%	4.83%	1.70%
I	France	2.09	68.22%	42.28%	22.57%	12.16%
B	Canada	1.22	51.29%	22.95%	9.18%	3.72%
C	Morocco	1.57	48.71%	20.99%	8.63%	3.53%
K	Portugal	1.93	41.22%	23.78%	12.83%	6.38%
H	Spain	2.29	58.78%	38.70%	24.14%	14.19%
D	United States	1.28	53.15%	20.64%	10.35%	4.39%
G	Belgium	1.56	46.85%	16.87%	7.49%	3.09%
C	Brazil	1.95	58.80%	29.59%	14.97%	7.67%
I	Norway	1.58	41.20%	17.15%	7.35%	3.12%
A	Mexico	1.44	45.89%	23.49%	11.26%	5.65%
L	England	2.00	54.11%	29.77%	15.41%	8.09%
J	Argentina	2.23	74.73%	46.63%	27.42%	15.83%
G	Egypt	1.15	25.27%	9.19%	3.02%	1.00%
B	Switzerland	1.53	42.11%	16.91%	7.00%	2.86%
K	Colombia	1.85	57.89%	27.27%	13.56%	6.64%