Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Knockout Edition

The knockout rounds are set, and because of the new extremely convoluted third place advancement rules (path 67 occurred, for those wondering), some teams have far easier paths than others.

Because of this, we have a new favorite - Argentina! Spain is still a contender like at the start, but two teams with 5%+ odds have jumped considerably (italicized below):

1. Argentina: 15% (+5%)
2. Spain: 11% (-1%)
3. France: 8% (+1%)
4. England: 7% (+1%)
5. Colombia: 6% (+2%)
6. Brazil: 5% (no change)

Argentina and Colombia got the soft half of the bracket:

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Round of 16	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
E	Germany	1.86	63.18%	32.19%	18.12%	9.22%	4.75%
D	Paraguay	1.33	36.83%	14.22%	6.08%	2.33%	0.85%
I	France	2.09	74.00%	44.46%	27.49%	15.31%	8.47%
F	Sweden	1.04	26.00%	9.13%	3.25%	1.07%	0.34%
A	South Africa	0.80	30.52%	8.84%	2.37%	0.61%	0.16%
B	Canada	1.22	69.48%	33.21%	15.11%	6.58%	2.83%
F	Netherlands	1.82	55.98%	33.88%	16.99%	8.41%	4.10%
C	Morocco	1.57	44.03%	24.07%	10.59%	4.63%	2.05%
K	Portugal	1.93	56.93%	27.20%	16.14%	8.60%	4.44%
L	Croatia	1.64	43.07%	17.44%	9.25%	4.35%	1.97%
H	Spain	2.29	70.87%	43.64%	29.69%	18.60%	11.32%
J	Austria	1.40	29.14%	11.73%	5.46%	2.22%	0.87%
D	United States	1.28	72.29%	38.60%	16.52%	8.11%	3.63%
B	Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.71	27.71%	8.33%	1.79%	0.46%	0.11%
G	Belgium	1.56	50.90%	27.23%	10.90%	4.94%	2.10%
I	Senegal	1.53	49.10%	25.85%	10.24%	4.57%	1.92%
C	Brazil	1.95	56.35%	35.49%	19.08%	10.19%	5.40%
F	Japan	1.69	43.65%	24.84%	11.73%	5.56%	2.54%
E	Ivory Coast	1.12	38.74%	12.69%	4.31%	1.54%	0.50%
I	Norway	1.58	61.26%	26.99%	12.10%	5.34%	2.31%
A	Mexico	1.44	54.54%	28.49%	15.23%	7.84%	4.00%
E	Ecuador	1.66	45.46%	21.86%	10.78%	5.09%	2.31%
L	England	2.00	77.42%	43.40%	24.97%	13.62%	7.24%
K	Congo	0.79	22.58%	6.25%	1.79%	0.51%	0.12%
J	Argentina	2.23	84.24%	61.94%	40.68%	24.65%	14.63%
H	Cape Verde	0.61	15.76%	5.58%	1.57%	0.37%	0.09%
D	Australia	1.26	52.76%	17.79%	7.55%	2.78%	0.99%
G	Egypt	1.15	47.24%	14.68%	5.90%	2.10%	0.69%
B	Switzerland	1.53	58.48%	28.44%	12.25%	5.36%	2.28%
J	Algeria	1.18	41.52%	16.92%	6.04%	2.17%	0.73%
K	Colombia	1.85	77.26%	47.32%	24.15%	12.44%	6.15%
L	Ghana	0.64	22.74%	7.33%	1.85%	0.45%	0.11%

Odds a country outside of Europe/South America wins: 20%. This is double last knockout round in 2022, given we have double the teams at this stage (32).

Also recall that teams that achieve 9 points in the group stage rarely win the whole thing, and in 2022, no knockout teams did this! We have three candidates here this year, including two of the top contenders: France, Argentina, and Mexico.