The main difference here from FiveThirtyEight's predictions is likely Brazil's home field advantage, which is included in my simulator as 0.5 goals (they don't specify the figure they use).
| Country | SPI Rating | Quarters | Semis | Final | Champion |
| Brazil | 91.3 | 74.71% | 55.75% | 41.88% | 31.68% |
| Mexico | 80.2 | 36.96% | 20.55% | 8.68% | 2.73% |
| Netherlands | 87.4 | 63.04% | 42.25% | 22.76% | 9.30% |
| Chile | 86.5 | 25.29% | 13.06% | 6.73% | 3.75% |
| Colombia | 87.4 | 61.52% | 21.47% | 11.22% | 5.88% |
| Greece | 72.8 | 42.40% | 13.94% | 4.37% | 1.07% |
| Costa Rica | 78.6 | 57.60% | 23.26% | 8.83% | 2.43% |
| Uruguay | 81.5 | 38.48% | 9.72% | 4.16% | 1.87% |
| France | 87.8 | 68.08% | 36.90% | 14.39% | 7.70% |
| Switzerland | 78.1 | 29.55% | 13.04% | 5.47% | 1.62% |
| Argentina | 89.7 | 70.45% | 47.05% | 30.59% | 14.43% |
| Nigeria | 76.2 | 31.92% | 11.31% | 2.38% | 0.95% |
| Germany | 88.6 | 73.47% | 42.50% | 17.38% | 9.97% |
| United States | 78.9 | 43.37% | 15.75% | 7.14% | 1.96% |
| Belgium | 83.1 | 56.63% | 24.16% | 12.16% | 4.09% |
| Algeria | 74.3 | 26.53% | 9.29% | 1.86% | 0.57% |
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