Thursday, June 26, 2014

Simulating the Knockout Rounds of the World Cup

Once again, the input for the Monte Carlo simulator is ESPN's SPI.

The main difference here from FiveThirtyEight's predictions is likely Brazil's home field advantage, which is included in my simulator as 0.5 goals (they don't specify the figure they use).


CountrySPI RatingQuartersSemisFinalChampion
Brazil91.374.71%55.75%41.88%31.68%
Mexico80.236.96%20.55%8.68%2.73%
Netherlands87.463.04%42.25%22.76%9.30%
Chile86.525.29%13.06%6.73%3.75%
Colombia87.461.52%21.47%11.22%5.88%
Greece72.842.40%13.94%4.37%1.07%
Costa Rica78.657.60%23.26%8.83%2.43%
Uruguay81.538.48%9.72%4.16%1.87%
France87.868.08%36.90%14.39%7.70%
Switzerland78.129.55%13.04%5.47%1.62%
Argentina89.770.45%47.05%30.59%14.43%
Nigeria76.231.92%11.31%2.38%0.95%
Germany88.673.47%42.50%17.38%9.97%
United States78.943.37%15.75%7.14%1.96%
Belgium83.156.63%24.16%12.16%4.09%
Algeria74.326.53%9.29%1.86%0.57%

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