Simulating UNC's Season

I (once again) adapted my Monte Carlo simulator, this time to simulate the entire regular season of any given Division 1 FBS college football team. Its input was my roster-adjusted MDS preseason NCAAF rankings, and each season was simulated 10,000 times. Naturally, I've only done it so far for North Carolina.

An alternative, more optimistic preview can be found here.

North Carolina (Rank: #36)
Average record:      6.80-5.20 (4.27-3.73 in conference)
Most likely record:  7-5 (4-4)

Chance of making a bowl game (6-6 or better):  79.31%
Chance of going undefeated (12-0):             0.05%


Likely wins (in order of most to least likely):
1. Liberty
2. NC State
3. San Diego State
4. Pittsburgh
5. Georgia Tech
6. Virginia
7. Virginia Tech

Likely losses (in order of most to least likely):
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Miami (FL)
4. Duke
5. ECU

Game-by-game breakdowns

Home/Away	Opponent	Win %	Avg Margin
vs	Liberty	96.25%	23.69
vs	San Diego St	74.91%	9.14
at	ECU	45.49%	-1.35
at	Clemson	26.98%	-8.50
vs	Va Tech	55.14%	1.87
at	Notre Dame	36.40%	-4.91
vs	Ga Tech	62.14%	4.03
at	Virginia	60.05%	3.35
at	Miami (FL)	38.70%	-4.18
vs	Pitt	64.87%	5.00
at	Duke	42.67%	-2.66
vs	NC State	76.82%	9.71

Individual record probabilities

(Cumulative indicates better than or equal to)

Record	Prob	Cumulative
0-12	0.00%	100.00%
1-11	0.02%	100.00%
2-10	0.23%	99.98%
3-9	1.44%	99.75%
4-8	5.06%	98.31%
5-7	13.94%	93.25%
6-6	21.67%	79.31%
7-5	24.76%	57.64%
8-4	18.61%	32.88%
9-3	10.08%	14.27%
10-2	3.40%	4.19%
11-1	0.74%	0.79%
12-0	0.05%	0.05%