Friday, August 1, 2014

Simulating UNC's Season

I (once again) adapted my Monte Carlo simulator, this time to simulate the entire regular season of any given Division 1 FBS college football team. Its input was my roster-adjusted MDS preseason NCAAF rankings, and each season was simulated 10,000 times. Naturally, I've only done it so far for North Carolina.

An alternative, more optimistic preview can be found here.

North Carolina (Rank: #36)
Average record:      6.80-5.20 (4.27-3.73 in conference)
Most likely record:  7-5 (4-4)

Chance of making a bowl game (6-6 or better):  79.31%
Chance of going undefeated (12-0):             0.05%


Likely wins (in order of most to least likely):
1. Liberty
2. NC State
3. San Diego State
4. Pittsburgh
5. Georgia Tech
6. Virginia
7. Virginia Tech

Likely losses (in order of most to least likely):
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Miami (FL)
4. Duke
5. ECU

Game-by-game breakdowns
Home/AwayOpponentWin %Avg Margin
vsLiberty96.25%23.69
vsSan Diego St74.91%9.14
atECU45.49%-1.35
atClemson26.98%-8.50
vsVa Tech55.14%1.87
atNotre Dame36.40%-4.91
vsGa Tech62.14%4.03
atVirginia60.05%3.35
atMiami (FL)38.70%-4.18
vsPitt64.87%5.00
atDuke42.67%-2.66
vsNC State76.82%9.71

Individual record probabilities
(Cumulative indicates better than or equal to)
RecordProbCumulative
0-120.00%100.00%
1-110.02%100.00%
2-100.23%99.98%
3-91.44%99.75%
4-85.06%98.31%
5-713.94%93.25%
6-621.67%79.31%
7-524.76%57.64%
8-418.61%32.88%
9-310.08%14.27%
10-23.40%4.19%
11-10.74%0.79%
12-00.05%0.05%

No comments:

Post a Comment