Monday, March 9, 2015

Big 6 Conference Tournaments (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC)

Included are the MDS Model picks for the ACC, Big 10, Bit 12, Big East, Pac-12, and SEC tournaments. Also included are the round-by-round probabilities for each team. For the purposes of coding each conference, there are 16 teams listed, and simply empty slots for the non-existent teams.

ACC

SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Virginia100.00%100.00%96.74%75.16%55.62%
8Clemson100.00%53.25%1.84%0.24%0.03%
9Florida State100.00%46.75%1.42%0.17%0.02%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Louisville100.00%100.00%40.68%9.18%4.12%
5North Carolina100.00%90.65%52.63%14.87%7.76%
12Boston College40.07%2.96%0.29%0.01%0.00%
13Georgia Tech59.93%6.39%6.39%0.37%0.05%
2Duke100.00%100.00%82.17%66.76%27.09%
7North Carolina State100.00%71.38%15.06%8.23%1.38%
10Pittsburgh100.00%28.62%2.77%0.94%0.07%
15Syracuse0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Notre Dame100.00%100.00%64.19%18.08%3.20%
6Miami (FL)100.00%77.29%28.62%5.56%0.64%
11Wake Forest70.58%18.83%3.32%0.29%0.01%
14Virginia Tech29.42%3.88%3.88%0.15%0.00%
Totals128421

Note: Syracuse is banned from postseason play (and thus set to 0)

Value Bet: Virginia at +195
Big 10

SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Wisconsin100.00%100.00%92.33%82.09%66.30%
8Illinois100.00%64.77%5.86%2.73%0.88%
9Michigan100.00%35.23%1.81%0.60%0.13%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Purdue100.00%100.00%33.06%3.73%1.10%
5Iowa100.00%84.02%55.48%10.24%4.49%
12Nebraska42.89%5.93%1.41%0.06%0.01%
13Penn State57.11%10.05%10.05%0.56%0.09%
2Maryland100.00%100.00%58.05%16.60%2.74%
7Indiana100.00%75.34%36.22%9.81%1.53%
10Northwestern100.00%24.66%5.74%0.64%0.04%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Michigan State100.00%100.00%46.45%33.04%9.33%
6Ohio State100.00%82.01%48.28%37.59%13.06%
11Minnesota85.30%17.37%4.65%2.22%0.32%
14Rutgers14.70%0.62%0.62%0.09%0.00%
Totals128421

Value Bet: Wisconsin at -130

Big 12

SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Kansas100.00%100.00%84.44%40.98%21.89%
8Kansas State100.00%42.62%5.70%0.76%0.12%
9TCU100.00%57.38%9.86%1.69%0.33%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Baylor100.00%100.00%70.78%44.23%26.97%
5West Virginia100.00%100.00%29.22%12.33%4.88%
12None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
13None0%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Iowa State100.00%100.00%57.69%30.04%14.03%
7Texas100.00%90.70%41.56%19.97%8.53%
10Texas Tech100.00%9.30%0.74%0.07%0.01%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Oklahoma100.00%100.00%70.73%39.72%20.15%
6Oklahoma State100.00%100.00%29.27%10.19%3.11%
11None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals108421

Value Bet: Baylor at +550

Big East


SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Villanova100.00%100.00%92.92%80.37%62.50%
8Seton Hall100.00%60.07%4.87%1.76%0.42%
9Marquette100.00%39.93%2.21%0.60%0.11%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4Providence100.00%100.00%53.30%9.61%3.56%
5St. John100.00%100.00%46.70%7.65%2.61%
12None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
13None0%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Georgetown100.00%100.00%87.19%46.34%15.04%
7DePaul100.00%35.45%3.13%0.31%0.02%
10Creighton100.00%64.55%9.68%1.61%0.16%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Butler100.00%100.00%51.24%26.80%8.19%
6Xavier100.00%100.00%48.76%24.94%7.40%
11None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
14None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals108421

Value Bet: None

Pac-12

SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Arizona100.00%100.00%97.64%91.22%63.98%
8California100.00%65.56%1.84%0.55%0.05%
9Washington State100.00%34.44%0.52%0.10%0.01%
16None00.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4UCLA100.00%100.00%53.02%4.25%0.79%
5Arizona State100.00%77.87%41.55%3.71%0.76%
12USC100.00%22.13%5.43%0.18%0.01%
13None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
2Oregon100.00%100.00%67.34%11.73%1.43%
7Oregon State100.00%35.90%8.90%0.62%0.03%
10Colorado100.00%64.10%23.75%2.72%0.22%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Utah100.00%100.00%83.88%74.67%31.04%
6Stanford100.00%81.69%15.23%9.98%1.66%
11Washington100.00%18.31%0.89%0.28%0.01%
14None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals128421

Value Bet: Utah at +275

SEC


SeedTeam2nd RoundQuartersSemisFinalChampion
1Kentucky100.00%100.00%94.87%91.40%86.91%
8Florida100.00%69.66%4.29%2.75%1.57%
9Alabama100.00%30.34%0.84%0.38%0.14%
16None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
4LSU100.00%100.00%48.27%3.00%1.42%
5Texas A&M100.00%80.09%38.31%2.22%1.00%
12Mississippi State43.86%7.78%1.28%0.02%0.00%
13Auburn56.14%12.14%12.14%0.23%0.04%
2Arkansas100.00%100.00%67.61%43.80%4.84%
7Vanderbilt100.00%67.64%25.23%13.21%1.01%
10Tennessee100.00%32.36%7.17%2.49%0.11%
15None0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
3Georgia100.00%100.00%47.89%19.38%1.39%
6Ole Miss100.00%60.59%32.31%14.09%1.11%
11South Carolina84.47%37.43%17.82%6.82%0.45%
14Missouri15.53%1.98%1.98%0.21%0.00%
Totals128421
Value Bet: None

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