Here are the picks by the MDS Model for this year's NCAA tournament, as well as the win probabilities (using Log5).
Note: The winning score prediction was gathered from Massey Ratings.
Round-by-round win probabilities:
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| Midwest | ||||||||
| 1 | Kentucky | 100.00% | 99.19% | 92.69% | 87.49% | 78.53% | 55.48% | 41.77% |
| 16* | Manhattan | 81.98% | 0.67% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16* | Hampton | 18.02% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Cincinnati | 100.00% | 67.69% | 5.66% | 3.38% | 1.46% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 9 | Purdue | 100.00% | 32.31% | 1.57% | 0.66% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 5 | West Virginia | 100.00% | 66.78% | 41.74% | 4.30% | 1.74% | 0.30% | 0.06% |
| 12 | Buffalo | 100.00% | 33.22% | 15.31% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Maryland | 100.00% | 73.06% | 35.78% | 2.99% | 1.02% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 13 | Valparaiso | 100.00% | 26.94% | 7.17% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Butler | 100.00% | 45.98% | 24.31% | 10.72% | 1.57% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 11 | Texas | 100.00% | 54.02% | 30.59% | 14.68% | 2.39% | 0.54% | 0.14% |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 100.00% | 88.13% | 43.70% | 20.01% | 3.07% | 0.65% | 0.16% |
| 14 | Northeastern | 100.00% | 11.87% | 1.39% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Wichita State | 100.00% | 69.03% | 34.72% | 19.07% | 3.31% | 0.80% | 0.23% |
| 10 | Indiana | 100.00% | 30.97% | 10.13% | 3.60% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 2 | Kansas | 100.00% | 89.41% | 53.47% | 31.52% | 6.08% | 1.65% | 0.52% |
| 15 | New Mexico State | 100.00% | 10.59% | 1.68% | 0.25% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| West | ||||||||
| 1 | Wisconsin | 100.00% | 98.47% | 89.75% | 69.40% | 42.08% | 18.63% | 11.43% |
| 16 | Coastal Carolina | 100.00% | 1.53% | 0.22% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Oregon | 100.00% | 39.88% | 3.23% | 0.75% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | 100.00% | 60.12% | 6.80% | 2.07% | 0.37% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Arkansas | 100.00% | 86.91% | 29.01% | 5.26% | 1.15% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 12 | Wofford | 100.00% | 13.09% | 1.11% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | North Carolina | 100.00% | 88.73% | 66.46% | 22.20% | 8.80% | 2.38% | 0.93% |
| 13 | Harvard | 100.00% | 11.27% | 3.42% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Xavier | 100.00% | 59.35% | 22.52% | 4.51% | 0.97% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 11* | Brigham Young | 52.55% | 21.36% | 6.47% | 0.97% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 11* | Ole Miss | 47.45% | 18.14% | 5.50% | 0.82% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Baylor | 100.00% | 86.59% | 48.83% | 16.31% | 5.73% | 1.48% | 0.55% |
| 14 | Georgia State | 100.00% | 13.41% | 22.18% | 1.77% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Virginia Commonwealth | 100.00% | 34.60% | 5.31% | 2.53% | 0.55% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 10 | Ohio State | 100.00% | 65.40% | 16.56% | 10.21% | 3.37% | 0.82% | 0.29% |
| 2 | Arizona | 100.00% | 99.62% | 78.13% | 63.72% | 36.55% | 15.94% | 9.66% |
| 15 | Texas Southern | 100.00% | 0.38% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| East | ||||||||
| 1 | Villanova | 100.00% | 97.50% | 83.64% | 64.72% | 34.25% | 20.98% | 7.68% |
| 16 | Lafayette | 100.00% | 2.50% | 0.35% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | North Carolina State | 100.00% | 63.56% | 11.65% | 4.83% | 1.00% | 0.25% | 0.03% |
| 9 | LSU | 100.00% | 36.44% | 4.36% | 1.28% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Northern Iowa | 100.00% | 89.50% | 38.17% | 9.34% | 2.10% | 0.57% | 0.07% |
| 12 | Wyoming | 100.00% | 10.50% | 1.04% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Louisville | 100.00% | 89.69% | 58.66% | 19.61% | 6.10% | 2.27% | 0.42% |
| 13 | UC Irvine | 100.00% | 10.31% | 2.13% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Providence | 100.00% | 65.79% | 21.08% | 3.49% | 0.83% | 0.19% | 0.02% |
| 11* | Boise State | 48.42% | 16.57% | 3.39% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 11* | Dayton | 51.58% | 18.39% | 3.76% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 100.00% | 96.91% | 57.68% | 17.27% | 6.90% | 2.78% | 0.57% |
| 14 | Albany | 100.00% | 3.09% | 17.85% | 0.29% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Michigan State | 100.00% | 72.47% | 16.25% | 9.92% | 3.69% | 1.38% | 0.26% |
| 10 | Georgia | 100.00% | 27.53% | 2.89% | 1.21% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Virginia | 100.00% | 98.49% | 80.75% | 67.47% | 44.64% | 30.28% | 13.05% |
| 15 | Belmont | 100.00% | 1.51% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| South | ||||||||
| 1 | Duke | 100.00% | 98.05% | 81.28% | 48.64% | 29.55% | 13.58% | 4.26% |
| 16* | Robert Morris | 66.52% | 1.30% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16* | North Florida | 33.48% | 0.99% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | San Diego State | 100.00% | 59.90% | 12.06% | 3.41% | 0.98% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| 9 | St. John | 100.00% | 40.10% | 6.55% | 1.40% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Utah | 100.00% | 88.63% | 66.28% | 36.15% | 21.39% | 9.49% | 2.85% |
| 12 | Stephen F. Austin | 100.00% | 11.37% | 3.43% | 0.54% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Georgetown | 100.00% | 90.14% | 29.67% | 9.82% | 3.61% | 0.89% | 0.13% |
| 13 | Eastern Washington | 100.00% | 9.86% | 0.62% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Southern Methodist | 100.00% | 75.47% | 36.62% | 12.87% | 4.12% | 1.04% | 0.16% |
| 11 | UCLA | 100.00% | 24.53% | 6.23% | 1.00% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Iowa State | 100.00% | 90.65% | 55.69% | 22.28% | 8.21% | 2.42% | 0.45% |
| 14 | UAB | 100.00% | 9.35% | 1.46% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Iowa | 100.00% | 66.39% | 16.68% | 7.25% | 1.99% | 0.43% | 0.06% |
| 10 | Davidson | 100.00% | 33.61% | 5.07% | 1.45% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 98.11% | 78.11% | 55.04% | 29.38% | 13.11% | 3.96% |
| 15 | North Dakota State | 100.00% | 1.89% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
It's unlikely anyone stops Kentucky from going undefeated. I have Kentucky's Pyth rating at 0.989, which is extremely high (KenPom has them at 0.979), and yet I still only (yeah, only) have them winning the title 41.77% of the time. This is very, very high (for example, compared to the most likely champion by MDS last year, Arizona, which only had odds of 23.63% to win it all), and yet they're STILL overvauled by the sportsbooks, where you can get them at 1/1 odds (which implies 50%).
I have a few value bets for winning it all:
| Team | Implied Odds | MDS Odds | Value |
| Virginia | 5.56% | 13.05% | 7.49% |
| Arizona | 7.69% | 9.66% | 1.97% |
| Utah | 1.79% | 2.85% | 1.06% |
So UNC is at 66.46% to make the second weekend (Los Angeles), and 8.80% to make the Final Four (Indianapolis).
No comments:
Post a Comment