Final Four per the MDS Model

As was the case last year, the top team in my ratings is still in it, and is still the favorite to win it all... Projected to play UNC in the final. Once again, I'll be there, in Phoenix.

Seed	Team	1st Round	Championship	Champion
	Final Four
7	South Carolina	100.00%	20.14%	5.15%
1	Gonzaga	100.00%	79.86%	45.52%
3	Oregon	100.00%	42.95%	19.54%
1	North Carolina	100.00%	57.05%	29.79%

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model

Quite a bit shook out over the past weekend, yet we're still left with a high level of parity in the remaining 16 teams:

Seed	Team	1st Round	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
8	Wisconsin	100.00%	51.21%	29.65%	13.03%	5.71%
4	Florida	100.00%	48.79%	27.69%	11.84%	5.05%
3	Baylor	100.00%	65.92%	31.66%	13.13%	5.43%
7	South Carolina	100.00%	34.08%	11.00%	2.95%	0.79%
1	Gonzaga	100.00%	59.33%	39.51%	26.44%	15.35%
4	West Virginia	100.00%	40.67%	23.48%	13.64%	6.65%
11	Xavier	100.00%	37.86%	11.33%	4.85%	1.64%
2	Arizona	100.00%	62.14%	25.68%	14.11%	6.44%
1	Kansas	100.00%	59.63%	36.63%	19.74%	11.30%
4	Purdue	100.00%	40.37%	20.97%	9.29%	4.44%
3	Oregon	100.00%	61.03%	28.44%	13.27%	6.65%
7	Michigan	100.00%	38.97%	13.96%	5.02%	1.97%
1	North Carolina	100.00%	67.95%	36.44%	20.53%	11.71%
4	Butler	100.00%	32.05%	11.40%	4.35%	1.70%
3	UCLA	100.00%	38.31%	17.26%	7.85%	3.63%
2	Kentucky	100.00%	61.69%	34.90%	19.95%	11.54%

There are 4 teams with a double-digit chance to take the trophy home, and the highest, Gonzaga, is barely over 15%. This is definitely the most wide-open year since 2014, when Connecticut (a 7-seed) beat Kentucky (an 8-seed) in the championship game.

NCAA Tournament 2017 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

This year I've done something a little different. After correctly picking the champion last year, I haven't kept up the MDS Model throughout this season, and so I've generated a new set of rankings similar to what I used to sportsbet in Las Vegas. 

I'm taking a composite of 6 different models, similar to what FiveThirtyEight does: 

• FiveThirtyEight (so I'm including a composite of a composite)
• KenPom (who's ratings are also included in FiveThirtyEight, so they're counted twice)
• Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
• Preseason Polls (has shown to be a predictor of tournament success)
• Massey Composite (another composite, this time spanning 68 rating systems)
• Prediction Machine (the only component that is a simulator)

I then use a weighted average of these 6 ratings that reduces outliers by weighting the ratings closer to the median higher. This smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I then use to project the tournament.

Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them (sorry Mt St Mary's/UC Davis/Providence/Wake Forest).

Seed	Team	1st Round	2nd Round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	East
1	Villanova	100.00%	98.43%	69.85%	45.68%	29.02%	18.08%	11.08%
16*	New Orleans	100.00%	1.57%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Wisconsin	100.00%	73.55%	25.80%	12.89%	6.18%	2.89%	1.31%
9	Virginia Tech	100.00%	26.45%	4.25%	1.16%	0.29%	0.07%	0.02%
5	Virginia	100.00%	81.47%	51.23%	23.55%	12.74%	6.73%	3.47%
12	UNC Wilmington	100.00%	18.53%	5.60%	0.94%	0.21%	0.04%	0.01%
4	Florida	100.00%	80.77%	39.34%	15.27%	7.15%	3.25%	1.44%
13	East Tennessee St.	100.00%	19.23%	3.82%	0.50%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
6	SMU	100.00%	72.88%	42.17%	19.91%	8.37%	3.90%	1.77%
11*	USC	100.00%	27.12%	9.60%	2.50%	0.54%	0.13%	0.03%
3	Baylor	100.00%	83.50%	44.93%	20.16%	8.00%	3.54%	1.52%
14	New Mexico St.	100.00%	16.50%	3.30%	0.49%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
7	South Carolina	100.00%	51.85%	13.27%	4.83%	1.23%	0.36%	0.10%
10	Marquette	100.00%	48.15%	11.66%	4.05%	0.97%	0.27%	0.07%
2	Duke	100.00%	95.65%	74.33%	47.98%	25.14%	14.31%	7.98%
15	Troy	100.00%	4.35%	0.75%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	West
1	Gonzaga	100.00%	96.68%	76.81%	50.88%	34.58%	19.71%	11.73%
16	South Dakota St.	100.00%	3.32%	0.52%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Northwestern	100.00%	44.79%	9.24%	3.05%	1.03%	0.25%	0.07%
9	Vanderbilt	100.00%	55.21%	13.43%	5.06%	1.96%	0.56%	0.17%
5	Notre Dame	100.00%	69.95%	29.46%	10.47%	4.80%	1.67%	0.62%
12	Princeton	100.00%	30.05%	7.43%	1.46%	0.39%	0.07%	0.01%
4	West Virginia	100.00%	86.48%	59.35%	28.51%	16.89%	8.08%	4.07%
13	Bucknell	100.00%	13.52%	3.77%	0.53%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%
6	Maryland	100.00%	46.52%	22.88%	8.66%	2.73%	0.83%	0.27%
11	Xavier	100.00%	53.48%	28.06%	11.54%	3.99%	1.33%	0.47%
3	Florida St.	100.00%	83.66%	45.87%	20.30%	7.61%	2.75%	1.06%
14	Florida Gulf Coast	100.00%	16.34%	3.19%	0.43%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Saint Mary's	100.00%	68.55%	34.42%	20.65%	9.02%	3.82%	1.71%
10	VCU	100.00%	31.45%	10.23%	4.21%	1.12%	0.28%	0.08%
2	Arizona	100.00%	94.18%	54.80%	34.15%	15.72%	7.03%	3.32%
15	North Dakota	100.00%	5.82%	0.54%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Midwest
1	Kansas	100.00%	97.10%	69.44%	44.80%	26.96%	15.31%	8.18%
16*	North Carolina Central	100.00%	2.90%	0.27%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Miami FL	100.00%	49.20%	14.73%	6.26%	2.37%	0.83%	0.26%
9	Michigan St.	100.00%	50.80%	15.56%	6.73%	2.60%	0.92%	0.30%
5	Iowa St.	100.00%	74.06%	38.61%	16.74%	7.82%	3.40%	1.36%
12	Nevada	100.00%	25.94%	7.51%	1.62%	0.38%	0.08%	0.02%
4	Purdue	100.00%	79.90%	48.02%	22.71%	11.52%	5.46%	2.40%
13	Vermont	100.00%	20.10%	5.86%	1.12%	0.24%	0.04%	0.01%
6	Creighton	100.00%	54.47%	23.44%	9.64%	3.82%	1.46%	0.51%
11	Rhode Island	100.00%	45.53%	17.74%	6.55%	2.32%	0.79%	0.25%
3	Oregon	100.00%	89.06%	56.74%	29.93%	15.30%	7.61%	3.52%
14	Iona	100.00%	10.94%	2.08%	0.27%	0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Michigan	100.00%	55.53%	21.00%	9.57%	3.86%	1.51%	0.54%
10	Oklahoma St.	100.00%	44.47%	14.62%	5.88%	2.07%	0.70%	0.22%
2	Louisville	100.00%	96.63%	64.11%	38.15%	20.70%	10.93%	5.40%
15	Jacksonville St.	100.00%	3.37%	0.27%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	South
1	North Carolina	100.00%	97.34%	75.80%	56.47%	32.44%	18.68%	9.93%
16	Texas Southern	100.00%	2.66%	0.33%	0.04%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	Arkansas	100.00%	49.42%	11.69%	5.42%	1.54%	0.44%	0.11%
9	Seton Hall	100.00%	50.58%	12.18%	5.71%	1.65%	0.48%	0.12%
5	Minnesota	100.00%	51.72%	20.74%	5.29%	1.33%	0.33%	0.07%
12	Middle Tennessee	100.00%	48.28%	18.61%	4.51%	1.07%	0.26%	0.05%
4	Butler	100.00%	83.67%	55.88%	22.00%	8.68%	3.43%	1.21%
13	Winthrop	100.00%	16.33%	4.77%	0.56%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
6	Cincinnati	100.00%	62.96%	31.03%	12.26%	5.63%	2.39%	0.91%
11*	Kansas St.	100.00%	37.04%	13.75%	3.83%	1.30%	0.39%	0.10%
3	UCLA	100.00%	91.27%	54.05%	23.70%	11.89%	5.57%	2.36%
14	Kent St.	100.00%	8.73%	1.17%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
7	Dayton	100.00%	30.13%	7.27%	2.57%	0.83%	0.24%	0.06%
10	Wichita St.	100.00%	69.87%	29.15%	16.14%	8.27%	3.97%	1.73%
2	Kentucky	100.00%	95.66%	63.11%	41.35%	25.30%	14.77%	7.98%
15	Northern Kentucky	100.00%	4.34%	0.46%	0.05%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	64.00	32.00	16.00	8.00	4.00	2.00	1.00