Monday, March 27, 2017

Final Four per the MDS Model

As was the case last year, the top team in my ratings is still in it, and is still the favorite to win it all... Projected to play UNC in the final. Once again, I'll be there, in Phoenix.


SeedTeam1st RoundChampionshipChampion
Final Four
7South Carolina100.00%20.14%5.15%
1Gonzaga100.00%79.86%45.52%
3Oregon100.00%42.95%19.54%
1North Carolina100.00%57.05%29.79%

Monday, March 20, 2017

Sweet 16 per the MDS Model

Quite a bit shook out over the past weekend, yet we're still left with a high level of parity in the remaining 16 teams:


SeedTeam1st RoundElite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
Sweet 16
8Wisconsin100.00%51.21%29.65%13.03%5.71%
4Florida100.00%48.79%27.69%11.84%5.05%
3Baylor100.00%65.92%31.66%13.13%5.43%
7South Carolina100.00%34.08%11.00%2.95%0.79%
1Gonzaga100.00%59.33%39.51%26.44%15.35%
4West Virginia100.00%40.67%23.48%13.64%6.65%
11Xavier100.00%37.86%11.33%4.85%1.64%
2Arizona100.00%62.14%25.68%14.11%6.44%
1Kansas100.00%59.63%36.63%19.74%11.30%
4Purdue100.00%40.37%20.97%9.29%4.44%
3Oregon100.00%61.03%28.44%13.27%6.65%
7Michigan100.00%38.97%13.96%5.02%1.97%
1North Carolina100.00%67.95%36.44%20.53%11.71%
4Butler100.00%32.05%11.40%4.35%1.70%
3UCLA100.00%38.31%17.26%7.85%3.63%
2Kentucky100.00%61.69%34.90%19.95%11.54%

There are 4 teams with a double-digit chance to take the trophy home, and the highest, Gonzaga, is barely over 15%. This is definitely the most wide-open year since 2014, when Connecticut (a 7-seed) beat Kentucky (an 8-seed) in the championship game.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

NCAA Tournament 2017 Bracket Math for the MDS Model

This year I've done something a little different. After correctly picking the champion last year, I haven't kept up the MDS Model throughout this season, and so I've generated a new set of rankings similar to what I used to sportsbet in Las Vegas. 

I'm taking a composite of 6 different models, similar to what FiveThirtyEight does

  • FiveThirtyEight (so I'm including a composite of a composite)
  • KenPom (who's ratings are also included in FiveThirtyEight, so they're counted twice)
  • Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
  • Preseason Polls (has shown to be a predictor of tournament success)
  • Massey Composite (another composite, this time spanning 68 rating systems)
  • Prediction Machine (the only component that is a simulator)
I then use a weighted average of these 6 ratings that reduces outliers by weighting the ratings closer to the median higher. This smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I then use to project the tournament.
Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them (sorry Mt St Mary's/UC Davis/Providence/Wake Forest).


SeedTeam1st Round2nd RoundSweet 16Elite 8Final FourChampionshipChampion
East
1Villanova100.00%98.43%69.85%45.68%29.02%18.08%11.08%
16*New Orleans100.00%1.57%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Wisconsin100.00%73.55%25.80%12.89%6.18%2.89%1.31%
9Virginia Tech100.00%26.45%4.25%1.16%0.29%0.07%0.02%
5Virginia100.00%81.47%51.23%23.55%12.74%6.73%3.47%
12UNC Wilmington100.00%18.53%5.60%0.94%0.21%0.04%0.01%
4Florida100.00%80.77%39.34%15.27%7.15%3.25%1.44%
13East Tennessee St.100.00%19.23%3.82%0.50%0.09%0.02%0.00%
6SMU100.00%72.88%42.17%19.91%8.37%3.90%1.77%
11*USC100.00%27.12%9.60%2.50%0.54%0.13%0.03%
3Baylor100.00%83.50%44.93%20.16%8.00%3.54%1.52%
14New Mexico St.100.00%16.50%3.30%0.49%0.06%0.01%0.00%
7South Carolina100.00%51.85%13.27%4.83%1.23%0.36%0.10%
10Marquette100.00%48.15%11.66%4.05%0.97%0.27%0.07%
2Duke100.00%95.65%74.33%47.98%25.14%14.31%7.98%
15Troy100.00%4.35%0.75%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%
West
1Gonzaga100.00%96.68%76.81%50.88%34.58%19.71%11.73%
16South Dakota St.100.00%3.32%0.52%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Northwestern100.00%44.79%9.24%3.05%1.03%0.25%0.07%
9Vanderbilt100.00%55.21%13.43%5.06%1.96%0.56%0.17%
5Notre Dame100.00%69.95%29.46%10.47%4.80%1.67%0.62%
12Princeton100.00%30.05%7.43%1.46%0.39%0.07%0.01%
4West Virginia100.00%86.48%59.35%28.51%16.89%8.08%4.07%
13Bucknell100.00%13.52%3.77%0.53%0.11%0.01%0.00%
6Maryland100.00%46.52%22.88%8.66%2.73%0.83%0.27%
11Xavier100.00%53.48%28.06%11.54%3.99%1.33%0.47%
3Florida St.100.00%83.66%45.87%20.30%7.61%2.75%1.06%
14Florida Gulf Coast100.00%16.34%3.19%0.43%0.05%0.00%0.00%
7Saint Mary's100.00%68.55%34.42%20.65%9.02%3.82%1.71%
10VCU100.00%31.45%10.23%4.21%1.12%0.28%0.08%
2Arizona100.00%94.18%54.80%34.15%15.72%7.03%3.32%
15North Dakota100.00%5.82%0.54%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Midwest
1Kansas100.00%97.10%69.44%44.80%26.96%15.31%8.18%
16*North Carolina Central100.00%2.90%0.27%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Miami FL100.00%49.20%14.73%6.26%2.37%0.83%0.26%
9Michigan St.100.00%50.80%15.56%6.73%2.60%0.92%0.30%
5Iowa St.100.00%74.06%38.61%16.74%7.82%3.40%1.36%
12Nevada100.00%25.94%7.51%1.62%0.38%0.08%0.02%
4Purdue100.00%79.90%48.02%22.71%11.52%5.46%2.40%
13Vermont100.00%20.10%5.86%1.12%0.24%0.04%0.01%
6Creighton100.00%54.47%23.44%9.64%3.82%1.46%0.51%
11Rhode Island100.00%45.53%17.74%6.55%2.32%0.79%0.25%
3Oregon100.00%89.06%56.74%29.93%15.30%7.61%3.52%
14Iona100.00%10.94%2.08%0.27%0.03%0.00%0.00%
7Michigan100.00%55.53%21.00%9.57%3.86%1.51%0.54%
10Oklahoma St.100.00%44.47%14.62%5.88%2.07%0.70%0.22%
2Louisville100.00%96.63%64.11%38.15%20.70%10.93%5.40%
15Jacksonville St.100.00%3.37%0.27%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
South
1North Carolina100.00%97.34%75.80%56.47%32.44%18.68%9.93%
16Texas Southern100.00%2.66%0.33%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%
8Arkansas100.00%49.42%11.69%5.42%1.54%0.44%0.11%
9Seton Hall100.00%50.58%12.18%5.71%1.65%0.48%0.12%
5Minnesota100.00%51.72%20.74%5.29%1.33%0.33%0.07%
12Middle Tennessee100.00%48.28%18.61%4.51%1.07%0.26%0.05%
4Butler100.00%83.67%55.88%22.00%8.68%3.43%1.21%
13Winthrop100.00%16.33%4.77%0.56%0.06%0.01%0.00%
6Cincinnati100.00%62.96%31.03%12.26%5.63%2.39%0.91%
11*Kansas St.100.00%37.04%13.75%3.83%1.30%0.39%0.10%
3UCLA100.00%91.27%54.05%23.70%11.89%5.57%2.36%
14Kent St.100.00%8.73%1.17%0.08%0.01%0.00%0.00%
7Dayton100.00%30.13%7.27%2.57%0.83%0.24%0.06%
10Wichita St.100.00%69.87%29.15%16.14%8.27%3.97%1.73%
2Kentucky100.00%95.66%63.11%41.35%25.30%14.77%7.98%
15Northern Kentucky100.00%4.34%0.46%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Totals64.0032.0016.008.004.002.001.00