Back by popular demand, bracket math is out for the MDS Model. As I did last year, I've generated a composite set of rankings similar to what I used to sportsbet in Las Vegas.
In the interest of time and specificity, I'm taking a composite of 4 different models, similar to what FiveThirtyEight does:
- FiveThirtyEight (so I'm including a composite of a composite)
- KenPom (who's ratings are also included in FiveThirtyEight, so they're counted twice)
- Powerrank (created and maintained by Ed Feng)
- Massey Composite (another composite, this time spanning 68 rating systems)
Last year I also included Preseason poll rankings and Prediction Machine, a simulation engine. I've removed those this year partly due to time constraints, but also to make this composite entirely statistical model based (no simulation or human judgement). As I have in the past, I then use a weighted average of these 4 ratings that reduces outliers by weighting the ratings closer to the median higher. This smooths out the final Aggregate ratings that I then use to project the tournament.
Note: For simplicity, I've taken the highest rated team in each play-in game and included them.
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Championship | Champion |
| South | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Virginia | 100.00% | 97.54% | 75.91% | 55.83% | 37.00% | 24.66% | 14.61% |
| 16 | UMBC | 100.00% | 2.46% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Creighton | 100.00% | 55.18% | 14.08% | 6.67% | 2.64% | 1.04% | 0.34% |
| 9 | Kansas St. | 100.00% | 44.82% | 9.73% | 4.12% | 1.43% | 0.50% | 0.14% |
| 5 | Kentucky | 100.00% | 67.13% | 38.78% | 14.61% | 6.87% | 3.24% | 1.28% |
| 12 | Davidson | 100.00% | 32.87% | 13.39% | 3.11% | 0.96% | 0.29% | 0.07% |
| 4 | Arizona | 100.00% | 70.93% | 38.24% | 13.80% | 6.26% | 2.84% | 1.08% |
| 13 | Buffalo | 100.00% | 29.07% | 9.59% | 1.83% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Miami FL | 100.00% | 54.00% | 23.63% | 8.67% | 2.85% | 1.08% | 0.34% |
| 11 | Loyola-Chicago | 100.00% | 46.00% | 18.44% | 6.11% | 1.81% | 0.62% | 0.17% |
| 3 | Tennessee | 100.00% | 86.75% | 55.01% | 26.25% | 11.44% | 5.66% | 2.37% |
| 14 | Wright State | 100.00% | 13.25% | 2.92% | 0.39% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Nevada | 100.00% | 54.25% | 19.29% | 9.19% | 3.23% | 1.30% | 0.44% |
| 10 | Texas | 100.00% | 45.75% | 14.62% | 6.36% | 2.00% | 0.73% | 0.22% |
| 2 | Cincinnati | 100.00% | 88.87% | 63.25% | 42.37% | 22.89% | 13.79% | 7.25% |
| 15 | Georgia State | 100.00% | 11.13% | 2.84% | 0.64% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| West | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Xavier | 100.00% | 97.92% | 65.04% | 35.62% | 18.61% | 8.48% | 3.73% |
| 16* | Texas Southern | 100.00% | 2.08% | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Missouri | 100.00% | 43.74% | 13.85% | 4.90% | 1.61% | 0.44% | 0.11% |
| 9 | Florida St. | 100.00% | 56.26% | 20.99% | 8.63% | 3.33% | 1.08% | 0.33% |
| 5 | Ohio St. | 100.00% | 73.00% | 34.79% | 17.24% | 7.95% | 3.15% | 1.20% |
| 12 | South Dakota St. | 100.00% | 27.00% | 7.08% | 1.92% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Gonzaga | 100.00% | 79.35% | 51.16% | 29.77% | 16.30% | 7.82% | 3.64% |
| 13 | UNC Greensboro | 100.00% | 20.65% | 6.97% | 1.93% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Houston | 100.00% | 65.46% | 33.07% | 15.79% | 7.66% | 3.11% | 1.22% |
| 11 | San Diego St. | 100.00% | 34.54% | 12.37% | 4.09% | 1.37% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| 3 | Michigan | 100.00% | 79.46% | 48.43% | 25.85% | 14.01% | 6.47% | 2.89% |
| 14 | Montana | 100.00% | 20.54% | 6.12% | 1.47% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 100.00% | 60.36% | 22.75% | 10.03% | 4.21% | 1.45% | 0.48% |
| 10 | Providence | 100.00% | 39.64% | 11.42% | 3.92% | 1.26% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 2 | North Carolina | 100.00% | 93.03% | 64.65% | 38.71% | 22.39% | 11.15% | 5.38% |
| 15 | Lipscomb | 100.00% | 6.97% | 1.18% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| East | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Villanova | 100.00% | 97.06% | 77.51% | 54.71% | 36.79% | 23.51% | 14.79% |
| 16* | Radford | 100.00% | 2.94% | 0.43% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Virginia Tech | 100.00% | 54.59% | 12.83% | 5.28% | 1.98% | 0.68% | 0.22% |
| 9 | Alabama | 100.00% | 45.41% | 9.22% | 3.40% | 1.13% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
| 5 | West Virginia | 100.00% | 73.76% | 42.85% | 17.35% | 8.82% | 4.17% | 1.93% |
| 12 | Murray St. | 100.00% | 26.24% | 9.09% | 1.84% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 4 | Wichita St. | 100.00% | 82.20% | 44.24% | 16.91% | 8.18% | 3.67% | 1.61% |
| 13 | Marshall | 100.00% | 17.80% | 3.82% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Florida | 100.00% | 67.09% | 34.39% | 14.97% | 5.62% | 2.33% | 0.94% |
| 11* | St. Bonaventure | 100.00% | 32.91% | 11.53% | 3.20% | 0.74% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 100.00% | 82.98% | 49.84% | 23.90% | 10.00% | 4.59% | 2.06% |
| 14 | SF Austin | 100.00% | 17.02% | 4.24% | 0.70% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Arkansas | 100.00% | 45.91% | 14.76% | 6.34% | 1.93% | 0.65% | 0.22% |
| 10 | Butler | 100.00% | 54.09% | 19.30% | 9.06% | 3.07% | 1.16% | 0.42% |
| 2 | Purdue | 100.00% | 94.56% | 65.21% | 41.75% | 21.05% | 11.53% | 6.19% |
| 15 | CSU Fullterton | 100.00% | 5.44% | 0.73% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Midwest | | | | | | | |
| 1 | Kansas | 100.00% | 87.95% | 57.57% | 35.83% | 17.14% | 8.08% | 3.97% |
| 16 | Penn | 100.00% | 12.05% | 2.65% | 0.54% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Seton Hall | 100.00% | 56.50% | 23.91% | 11.87% | 4.23% | 1.47% | 0.54% |
| 9 | NC State | 100.00% | 43.50% | 15.86% | 6.86% | 2.06% | 0.60% | 0.19% |
| 5 | Clemson | 100.00% | 64.71% | 34.75% | 16.39% | 6.25% | 2.34% | 0.92% |
| 12 | New Mexico St. | 100.00% | 35.29% | 13.97% | 4.63% | 1.17% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 4 | Auburn | 100.00% | 80.48% | 46.28% | 22.89% | 9.24% | 3.66% | 1.52% |
| 13 | Charleston | 100.00% | 19.52% | 5.00% | 1.00% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | TCU | 100.00% | 62.11% | 25.16% | 9.59% | 4.52% | 1.66% | 0.64% |
| 11* | Syracuse | 100.00% | 37.89% | 11.33% | 3.14% | 1.12% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 3 | Michigan St. | 100.00% | 85.63% | 59.32% | 31.24% | 19.47% | 10.04% | 5.38% |
| 14 | Bucknell | 100.00% | 14.37% | 4.19% | 0.74% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 100.00% | 51.74% | 13.99% | 5.08% | 2.02% | 0.61% | 0.19% |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 100.00% | 48.26% | 12.41% | 4.31% | 1.65% | 0.47% | 0.14% |
| 2 | Duke | 100.00% | 93.92% | 72.33% | 45.72% | 30.73% | 17.43% | 10.24% |
| 15 | Iona | 100.00% | 6.08% | 1.28% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
The top 8 teams in the tournament are as follows:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Villanova | 93.98 |
| 2 | Virginia | 93.52 |
| 3 | Duke | 92.42 |
| 4 | Cincinnati | 91.10 |
| 5 | Purdue | 90.57 |
| 6 | Michigan St. | 90.54 |
| 7 | North Carolina | 89.54 |
| 8 | Kansas | 88.93 |
Villanova barely holds off Virginia for the top spot, and also barely has the highest probability of winning it all (14.79% vs Virginia at 14.61%). Definitely some differences between the committee's S-curve and the seedings: Virginia (#2 in my ratings) might face #4 Cincinnati in the Elite 8; Duke (#3) and Michigan St (#6) are a 2 and a 3-seed (respectively), and the 3rd 1-seed (Kansas) is #8 in my model.
A word of caution though about going straight chalk: in most pools you want to gauge "contrarian" picks relative to the overall pool. Most of the above picks are pretty chalky. A lot of people have found success taking my output and then changing the champion, for example. My cousin won my pool by taking Duke instead of Kentucky in 2015, I took Villanova successfully in 2016, and ironically enough, the only thing that stopped this model last year was that UNC beat Gonzaga in the final (had Gonzaga won, I would've won the pool with a Carolina loss in the final... again).
My suggestion is to do something like that - use the above probabilities as a guide, and make contrarian picks that have a good chance of happening (like taking a slightly different champion). #11 Loyola-Chicago over #6 Miami FL (46%) and most of the 8/9 and 7/10 matchups fit this criteria.
Here's the full rating set as well:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Villanova | 93.96 |
| 2 | Virginia | 93.51 |
| 3 | Duke | 92.41 |
| 4 | Cincinnati | 91.09 |
| 5 | Purdue | 90.56 |
| 6 | Michigan St. | 90.53 |
| 7 | North Carolina | 89.53 |
| 8 | Kansas | 88.91 |
| 9 | Gonzaga | 88.88 |
| 10 | Michigan | 88.21 |
| 11 | Xavier | 87.98 |
| 12 | West Virginia | 87.87 |
| 13 | Texas Tech | 87.38 |
| 14 | Tennessee | 87.22 |
| 15 | Wichita St. | 86.99 |
| 16 | Kentucky | 86.38 |
| 17 | Houston | 86.17 |
| 18 | Auburn | 86.16 |
| 19 | Ohio St. | 85.77 |
| 20 | Arizona | 85.77 |
| 21 | Florida | 85.76 |
| 22 | Clemson | 85.33 |
| 23 | TCU | 85.06 |
| 24 | Seton Hall | 84.34 |
| 25 | Butler | 84.31 |
| 26 | Nevada | 83.97 |
| 27 | Texas A&M | 83.81 |
| 28 | Creighton | 83.61 |
| 29 | Miami FL | 83.07 |
| 30 | Florida St. | 83.00 |
| 31 | Virginia Tech | 83.00 |
| 32 | Arkansas | 82.88 |
| 33 | Texas | 82.48 |
| 34 | Rhode Island | 82.38 |
| 35 | NC State | 82.06 |
| 36 | Kansas St. | 81.79 |
| 37 | Oklahoma | 81.78 |
| 38 | Loyola-Chicago | 81.67 |
| 39 | Alabama | 81.39 |
| 40 | Missouri | 80.81 |
| 41 | Syracuse | 80.75 |
| 42 | San Diego St. | 80.62 |
| 43 | Davidson | 80.20 |
| 44 | Providence | 80.14 |
| 45 | New Mexico St. | 80.06 |
| 46 | St. Bonaventure | 79.59 |
| 47 | Murray St. | 79.00 |
| 48 | Buffalo | 78.08 |
| 49 | UNC Greensboro | 77.46 |
| 50 | South Dakota St. | 77.23 |
| 51 | Montana | 76.74 |
| 52 | Bucknell | 75.70 |
| 53 | Charleston | 74.18 |
| 54 | Marshall | 74.11 |
| 55 | SF Austin | 74.08 |
| 56 | Georgia State | 74.08 |
| 57 | Penn | 72.56 |
| 58 | Wright State | 71.67 |
| 59 | Iona | 70.82 |
| 60 | Lipscomb | 68.91 |
| 61 | CSU Fullterton | 68.19 |
| 62 | Radford | 67.61 |
| 63 | UMBC | 66.06 |
| 64 | Texas Southern | 59.56 |
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